One thing I love about EV projections right now is simply the number of states that will be in play come November. According to this collection of polls and maps (note: ignore the totals - the "Barely" categories are actually statistical ties), there are 10 states right now that are projecting within the margin of error. Those states are:
Florida - 27
Ohio - 20
Michigan - 17
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Indiana - 11
Wisconsin - 10
Colorado - 9
South Carolina - 8
Iowa - 7
Eliminating the EV's from these 10 states, you're left with a tally of 226-175 in favor of Obama. The combinations that put Obama over the top may surprise some. I've broken them down into the following categories: FL+OH, FL+2, OH+3, and ANY 5. I explain these below the fold.
For starters, winning both Ohio and Florida pretty much clinches it for Obama. That's kind of a no-brainer. FL+OH.
So let's suppose Obama won Florida. This would pretty much be over. Adding Fla's 27 EV's brings his total to 252. Obama would need only two more states to clinch a win, so long as one of those states were not Iowa. The exceptions to the FL+2 combo for victory are CO+IA (which would clinch a tie), or SC+IA (which would bring him to 268, in which case an upset in one of the small states just outside the MoE, like NV, MT, or ND, would put him over the top). FL+2.
Now let's suppose he won Ohio. This would bring his total up to 246. From here, any combination of 3 from the remaining 9 tied states gets us past 270. For example, OH(20) added to the 3 with the lowest EV's (CO+IA+SC=24) brings us to 270 exactly. OH+3.
Finally, let's be pessimistic and give McCain both Ohio and Florida. Obama can still win by taking the 5 states with the lowest EV's from this group. From 226, we add IN(11), WI(10), CO(9), SC(8), & IA(7) which combined account for 45 EV's bringing the total to 271. We just gave McCain Ohio, Florida, and 3 other statistically tied states and still won. This is, essentially, the steepest hill to climb, and yet, seems very much within reach. ANY 5.
This is all assuming that the leans unfold as planned. Obama needs to fiercely defend PA and (surprisingly to some) CA, while McCain has a whole stack of leans he needs to shore up. But assuming the leans go as forecast, Obama can secure the Presidency with victory in any 5 tied states, and with even less should he win either Ohio or Florida.