Rasmussen. 5/19. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/10 results)
McCain (R) 50 (53)
Obama (D) 40 (38)
Obama's recent gains follow the national trend -- Obama seems to be up a good five points in every new poll, as Obama's "Return of Wright" problems fade away. His biggest problem in such polls is the Democratic vote, which continues to be weak as Clinton supporters continue to hold out against Obama. In the crosstabs of this poll (subscription only), Clinton wins the female vote 48-40, while Obama loses it 47-41. And while Clinton gets 72 percent of the Democratic vote, Obama is getting just 57 percent. Some of that may be the racist vote, but I suspect that percentage is tiny. Mostly, it's Clinton supporters either wishing revenge on Obama for beating Clinton, or purposefully deceiving the pollsters to make their candidate look better in the head-to-head matchups (Clinton wins 47-41).
Either way, those people will ultimately have to choose between staying in Iraq for 100 years or getting out, and between a hard-right anti-choice Supreme Court or one that will, at the very least, hold its current ground (the most likely retirements on the court are currently two of its most liberal members).
Ultimately, most of the party will come together, and when it does, Obama's numbers will continue rising across the board. Enough to win Florida? I'd be surprised, but the state can certainly be competitive.