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Rasmussen. 5/19. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/10 results)

McCain (R) 50 (53)
Obama (D) 40 (38)

Obama's recent gains follow the national trend -- Obama seems to be up a good five points in every new poll, as Obama's "Return of Wright" problems fade away. His biggest problem in such polls is the Democratic vote, which continues to be weak as Clinton supporters continue to hold out against Obama. In the crosstabs of this poll (subscription only), Clinton wins the female vote 48-40, while Obama loses it 47-41. And while Clinton gets 72 percent of the Democratic vote, Obama is getting just 57 percent. Some of that may be the racist vote, but I suspect that percentage is tiny. Mostly, it's Clinton supporters either wishing revenge on Obama for beating Clinton, or purposefully deceiving the pollsters to make their candidate look better in the head-to-head matchups (Clinton wins 47-41).

Either way, those people will ultimately have to choose between staying in Iraq for 100 years or getting out, and between a hard-right anti-choice Supreme Court or one that will, at the very least, hold its current ground (the most likely retirements on the court are currently two of its most liberal members).

Ultimately, most of the party will come together, and when it does, Obama's numbers will continue rising across the board. Enough to win Florida? I'd be surprised, but the state can certainly be competitive.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:55 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  the DNC is now backing away from 2026 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stagemom, Wufacta

    according to Greg at TPM.

    What's madness but nobility of the soul at odds with circumstance?

    by slinkerwink on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:56:34 AM PDT

    •  At this point (7+ / 0-)

      I hope the RBC resolves the FL&MI situation on May 31st so this can end after the last primaries on June 3rd.

      If they try to punt this to the credentials committee, I am going to be pissed.

    •  I hope they tell Hillary to go (5+ / 0-)

      jump in a lake.  It's infuriating how she is insisting on seating them as is or nothing.  What a spoiled brat.  I'd say, "OK Hillary, then it's nothing for you."

      Never give up! Never surrender!

      by oscarsmom on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:04:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Quite the feminist . . . (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        oscarsmom, that veiled gazelle

        my way or the highway.

        Makes Bush look like a model feminist!!

        •  i've heard a lot of feminists don't want hillary (0+ / 0-)

          because she would harm people's ideas of what a woman is capable of.  i kind of buy it.  if we have hillary as the first female presidents, it will be a long time before anyone TRUSTS a woman politician.  it isn't that she is unable to lead, it's that she is dishonest, machiavellian and arguably in the pocket of "special" interests.

          i was a hillary supporter until she started showing these more "republicrat" scam-artist, condescending sides.  it has NOTHING to do with being sexist.  if anything i distrust MEN more on paper.  but between barack and hillary, there's no question who the most genuine candidate is.

          so, to sum up... it could be easily argued that the most FEMINIST thing to do in this case is support obama, so hillary doesn't make it WORSE for national (and international) opinion on the character of female leadership in the U.S.

          go far enough "left" or "right" and people are the same...

          by that veiled gazelle on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:31:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Obama should Endorse Seating Florida (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacrelicious, jackieca

      The Superdelegates are there for him whether it's 2026 or 2210...  it's only a matter of time, and with the Hiring of Linda Douglass, the consolidation of DNC, and organizing Florida, it's clear the GE is on and getting back in the good graces of Florida while disallowing Hillary to make these brutal hanging chad's analogies is smart and Obama needs to cut this shit off at the pass.

      Barack Obama. President.

      by Steven R on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:04:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Then how do we keep other states (10+ / 0-)

        from jumping the primary gun again in the future?

        Never give up! Never surrender!

        by oscarsmom on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:09:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A Win In 2008 is Worth a Primary in 2012 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Steven R, CParis, that veiled gazelle

          The primary season is going to HAVE to be revamped before 2012 anyway.

          It is just plain DUMB for the DNC and the Obama campaign to keep on dissin' Florida and Michigan and risk losing BOTH those States in the general election.

          As a Hillary supporter who will be voting for Obama if he gets the nomination, I am hearing from a LOT of my fellow Dems. that they will be going to the polls and NOT voting for anyone for President, not ONLY because they are "anti" Obama, but mainly because they feel disenfranchised by a lot of new rules that were unfairly enforced to the detriment of Fl. and Mich Dems., when the SAME rules were applied more fairly by the RNC in giving the "rogue" State's delegates half a vote.

          •  How is respecting the rules (7+ / 0-)

            that all candidates agreed on before the game started "dissing" FL/MI exactly?

            Never give up! Never surrender!

            by oscarsmom on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:24:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  what happened to the regional primary proposal (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HiBob, oscarsmom

            set up generally on a time zone oriented system with rotating order. has there been any movement on that?

            Ignorance is natural. Stupidity takes commitment. --Solomon Short

            by potty p on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:26:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not hearing that from anyone (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            oscarsmom

            guess we run in different circles

          •  This argument (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            oscarsmom

            Holds no water at all.  All states, all candidates were fully aware of the RULES before they began this process.  If the candidates agreed (and yes, Senator Clinton agreed, you can find numerous references to that agreement) and the states agreed and FL and MI just flat out decided hey we're going to be heard FIRST then the bottom line is why should they be treated any differently when they KNEW THE RULES AND AGREED TO THEM.  Wake up people and stop buying into the bill of goods that is being sold to you by the candidate who is seeking the nomination that they've already lost.

            I'm not  saying we should be dissing the voters but the responsibility for this error isn't Senator Obama or even Senator Clinton but the DULY ELECTED OFFICIALS who decided they didn't have to play by the rules THAT THEY AGREED TO PLAY BY.

            These votes were by Senator Clintons own words 'not to count' - and until she needed them to upstage Senator Obama they didn't count.

            Reformed Independent Voter

            by MA Voter on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  How is disenfranchising the voters that stayed (6+ / 0-)

            home because they believed their votes wouldn't count?

            Can't have it both ways folks.  HRC said no to a do-over, why?  Because she thought she wouldn't do as well.

            -6.5, -7.59. John McSame - running for Bush's third term. We can't afford it.

            by DrWolfy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:36:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Its stupid for HRC to push this argument (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            billydanielus

            If she is going to lose the nomination, why not just bow out now?  She played the victim-card today about how tough ('sniff') it is to run as a woman.  I don't doubt that its harder to run in the general than it would be as a white man.  But there are 16 women in the US Senate, but just one African American.  There have only been 3 AA Senators in a century, so its another HiLIEary statement.

        •  We can solve that problem later (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HiBob, CParis

          Many solutions if a state disobeys the DNC:

          1. Adopt (R) policy of halving delegates
          1. Revoke all the state superdels, but seat the pledged dels (this will hurt the state decision makers hard :-)
          1. ... there're plenty of others

          But we can solve this problem later when the passions are not running high.

          --
          Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting

          by sacrelicious on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:28:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  That's the thing (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          oscarsmom

          I don't know if even Obama could get the full delegations seated.  The RBC will want to mete out some punishment for the sake of the future.

        •  change the rules for the candidates (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          oscarsmom

          instead of just asking them to take their names off the ballots of states that have jumped the gun, add some stiff penalties for candidates that don't.
          But I don't think the next two presidential primaries will get  much pressure from states to be at the head of the line - they'll still be thinking about the outsize influence of the later stages of this primary.

        •  The Deterrant Value (0+ / 0-)

          has already been ruined by sanctioning the breaking of the exact same rule by 3 other states.  And the whole damn primary process is going to be rewritten between now & then anyway, so there may not even be a gun to jump.

          But regardless, the disproportionality of disenfranchising 2+ million Dems who voted in a fair, even-handed election on the one hand solely to enforce a party process rule - not even a substantive rule, but a PROCESS nit - on the other hand is just wrong.

          And doubly so if it also has any contribution to the practical effect of losing a huge swing state in November.

          •  Recognizing a non-election (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            curiousted

            which was totally skewed by the fact that the voters were told in advance that it would not matter is hardly disenfranchisement in my book--except maybe of the people that didn't vote.

            The fact is that both MI & FL had plenty of time to schedule another election that would have been recogized, but they didn't (partially because Hillary said she wouldn't accept a caucus).  So not only did they knowingly break the rules, they CHOSE not to amend their mistake when they had the chance.

            That is NOT disenfranchisement!

            Never give up! Never surrender!

            by oscarsmom on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:59:52 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Look at what Garin just said on The Page (0+ / 0-)

        Geoff Garin tells MSNBC the Senator may keep fighting past the primaries, since "there are enough uncommitted delegates left for either candidate to earn a majority."

        "At some point a candidate will have a majority (of delegates) needed to win the nomination, but we have not reached that point yet. We probably won’t reach that point on June 3."

        Adds: "In these swing states– Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia– we think there’s been a clear demonstration that Sen. Clinton is the more effective candidate, the candidate who more voters rally around as the best person to fix our economy and keep our country secure."

        "There’s lots of reason to think we’re starting to have some wind at our back."

        What's madness but nobility of the soul at odds with circumstance?

        by slinkerwink on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:09:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  According to tee vee reports (7+ / 0-)

      last night, the rules committee is likely cut FL and MI delegates in half and make some sort of a compromise so Obama is not left with zero from MI.  The news was that if the Clinton camp asks for too much and doesn't let it get resolved, Pelosi and other supers will come out en masse for Obama and give him that 2210 number Clinton is screaming about and put an end to this for good.

      "The Power to change this party, and the power to change this country is in your hands, not mine." - Gov. Howard Dean, MD

      by deaniac83 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:11:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  c'mon, it's soooo early (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oscarsmom, tdub

      There has yet to be a campaign, for crying out loud - no head-to-heads, no debates, no national campaign ads - nuttin' but stuff for primary voters. One demographic I'm curious about is the Jewish vote in Fla. Lots of retired folks there who have heard, according to more than once source, these Obama/muslim rumors, and he makes them nervous on that front. Hillary is nice and safe for them, McCain is familiar, and they don't know enough about BHO since he didn't campaign for the primary.

      Relax, let the campaign take its course, and trust that Florida voters will come around in significant numbers, as have most other regions of the country once BHO becomes more a known quantity and less of a shadowy one.

      Fear is the mind killer - Frank Herbert, Dune

      by p gorden lippy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:27:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Greg Sargent? He slants his posts for (0+ / 0-)

      ...Hillary Clinton every single time. Don't believe him without independent proof.

      There's something attractive about invincible ignorance... for the first 5 seconds.

      by MNPundit on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:58:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama's Fl problem (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Giulianis pet ferret

      Of course it's ours (as I've said many times) and it's not just Fl, but Ohio too--maybe Pennsylvania.

      Obama has won--I'll let it go, but the O supporters must now deal with the facts like this poll. He won the nomination largely based upon states the Dems can't win. Hillary's wins resemble Clinton's first election.

      The Western states dream was carried out by Clinton in the second term. He won CO., NM., AZ., but also Georgia, KY, and WV. AZ and the last two are impossible for Obama, agreed? The rest will be the usual script.

      K. Rove and Kristol are bragging that the Dem rules have made it pos. for a weaker national candidate to win the nomination (like my choice McGovern). This has made the prospect of a Republican white house win in a dead-certain Democratic year, possible. The fact that O might receive more popular votes than McCain is irrelevant. The electoral college rules are like the rules that have nominated Obama. They favor a republican.

      Aren't you just a little concerned by all this? Now that you have got your wishes, we'll all have to live with them.

      •  Ironic (0+ / 0-)

        The current proportional rules were put in place after McGovern won a majority of delegates with 25% of the popular vote so as to ensure that this would never happen again. They have now succeeded in accomplishing the exact opposite.

        If we had WTA, Hillary would be up 700 delgates. Obama didn't win the primaries, he gamed the system, and a system where winning Idaho is worth more than winning New Jersey is one that is not representative of the democratic party.

    •  COMPETIVE!!YEAH WRIGHT!! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      billydanielus

      you have NOOOOO idea how RED FLA is!
      the fact that the  longest serving rethug continues to win in a blue county
      (Bill Young) shows how RED this state is!
      The fact that there was even a Bill sponsered by a (R) in the FLA congress to outlaw Truck-nuts shows how red we are
      another congressman (R) had a pair on his truck so was against it
      I wish it wasnt that way but
      dream on!http://www.truck-nuts.com/...

  •  Florida (15+ / 0-)

    will also have a gay hating bill on the ballot in nov. which is sure to turn out many repubs.

    (-6.50,-6.00)If we settle for nothing now, we'll settle for nothing later. - RATM

    by clew74 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:57:48 AM PDT

  •  why do you assume it's "revenge"? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    iowabosox, Wufacta, pico, echatwa, dogtracks

    I would think age has a lot more to do with it.  Florida has a lot of older voters, which don't seem to be going for Obama in large-enough numbers.

    •  Because (8+ / 0-)

      it's a trend I've seen in lots of recent polls. I could obviously be wrong, or Florida could show the same trend but for different reasons.

      But in previous Florida polls, Obama's numbers among Democrats weren't so poor. It's a recent phenomenon, which I can only guess stems from the long primary campaign.

      But that's nothing more than a theory. I wouldn't bet my firstborn (or secondborn) on it :)

    •  older people (6+ / 0-)

      older people are from a different time,and raised in a different time, from my life experience, most racism exist in older generations.

      I'm sure people will scream, but my aunti may loves minorities but whatever, just pointing out in my observations, the older you are, the more likely you have some racist views, how could you not being raised in a society in which blacks coulndt even eat, sit, or drink with you.

      AMericans love to ignore the obvious, I mean last night whites in kentucky didnt vote for Obama, Oregain whites did,  the pundits heemed nd hawed all avoiding the obvious,  Hillbillies dont like minorities, big surprise there, but noone had the balls to state the obvious.

      •  floridans are no hillbillies (0+ / 0-)

        Older people relate better to older people, just like younger people relate better to younger people.  The racism charges do not hold since the breakdown is clearly along age not race.

      •  even one of my good liberal parents (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TheUnknown285, dark daze, NThenUDie

        still says an occasional thing that is racially insensitive.  

        My good-hearted grandparents (who retired to Florida) were even more insensitive.  When people went to school in segregated schools, and neighborhoods were segregated, they learned to fear groups of people they never interacted with.

        I've heard the same from friends in the south who didn't know any Jews and grew up being taught that Jews had horns. . .

        "I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually." James Baldwin

        by zdefender on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:08:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Florida is *THREE* States (4+ / 0-)

        North, Central and South Florida have very different makeups.  North Florida is a lot like neighboring Alabama and Georgia and very staunchly republican.  South Florida is where the "Old Jewish People" meme comes from, tempered somewhat by the fairly Republican Hispanic population, but there's also a decent sized LGBT community that's solid blue as well.

        Central Florida (Greater Orlando and Tampa) is the purple "swing state."  This is going to be the battleground.  There's a massive college student population here.  It's tough, but doable.

        •  Military vote in North Florida also a problem... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          theran, Orange Crush

          ...somehow susceptible to the McCain mystique.

          •  But they're a great group to reach out to (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            foldingBicycle

            Because not a one of them wants to get shipped over to Iraq (again) or start yet-another-war with Iran.

            They seem to like McCain for his war-hero/straight-talker/maverick facade, but we might be able to convince them the last two simply aren't true and just being a war hero didn't help Kerry much.

            •  This group bought swiftboating hook line sinker.. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Orange Crush

              ...I have in mind cities like Jacksonville and Pensacola, where much of the churchgoing population without military ties is very susceptible to militaristic jingoism.  There are hopeful signs everywhere, but I heard of the Obama/Muslim whisper campaign gaining a surprising traction on this audience.  I think these cities have probably had some of Bush's highest approval ratings (they certainly voted egregiously heavily for him in 2000 in spite of a significant Afro-Am. population).

              Remember, Florida is where Giuliani, with some reason, hoped to find his natural base--lots of "security moms" and fundie dads to augment the ranks of the frightenable elderly.

              Of course, North Florida at least is younger, and I think many of the college-educated 18-39 year olds are finding that the bloom is coming off the stinking Republican rose.  Obama can reach these and by all means should wage a serious campaign.

      •  I am 70 but it is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        edavis

        true what you have said.  My best friend and I got into it today, she was born in southern Ireland and I was born in England -- she brought the subject up today.  She and hubby are democrats and they vote in every election like myself.  Today she asked me what I thought of Obama, she knew I voted for him and I told her I absolutely adore him, but she said but you liked Edwards, yes I told her, but he dropped out right before the California elections, she and her hubby voted absentee for Edwards, now they like Hillary.
        She brought it up in this conversation,  so I asked her point blank was it because Obama was half black and she said no no, (denial) and she did not like his wife either, especially what Michelle had to say about America -- my blood pressure shot up!  So fine dont vote for Obama in November I told her, but she said no, they would both vote for Obama, but she did not like him. But because of the supreme court they would vote for him.

    •  There is definitely a "revenge" or spite factor (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oldskooldem, TheUnknown285, oscarsmom

      among Clinton supporters right now.  That should subside in time but perhaps not enough to win the state, due in part to all those older voters you refer to.

      Also, those spreading doubt about Obama's support of Israel are working very hard in Florida.

      Some people fight fire with fire. Professionals use water.

      by Happy Days on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:03:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It jives with common sense (0+ / 0-)

      There have to be a lot of those people out there--now whether enough of them will come home for us to win FL I don't know.  But you can't deny it's a real phenomenon.

      Never give up! Never surrender!

      by oscarsmom on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:05:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama is Surging (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom, beltane

    Great news for Barack.

    rom the Terry McAwful playbook.

    "In Japan, American occupation forces quickly became 50,000 friends. In Iraq, they would quickly become 50,000 terrorist targets. " James Webb, Sep 02

    by ParaHammer on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:58:21 AM PDT

  •  It depends on how the loser loses. (8+ / 0-)

    Right?  

    There's no reason why Obama can't win 40 states.

    "McCain had conflicts with higher-ups, and he was disinclined to obey every rule, which contributed to a low class rank (894 of 899)" - wikipedia.org

    by glutz78 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:58:58 AM PDT

  •  Keith Olbermann/COUNTDOWN (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    theran, oscarsmom

    has a wonderful tribute to Florida! Maybe, we'll see that sometime soon? We're not going to see any more dimpled or hanging chads, are we? If so, let's just let them be their own country.

    "A good craftsman never blames his tools." Keith Olbermann

    by CityLightsLover on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:59:01 AM PDT

  •  I need this primary season to be over (9+ / 0-)

    I'm really starting to feel burnt out right now.

    But I can't stop paying attention to it. I can't pretend like it's not going on.

    Part of me wishes I could hibernate til October. But then I wouldn't be able to work on registering new voters.

    The moral arc of the Universe is long, but it bends towards Justice. -MLK

    by MingPicket on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:59:03 AM PDT

  •  I don't see democrats winning Florida again soon (16+ / 0-)

    Unless there's a huge wave.

    The margin was wider in 2004 than 2000, by a lot.

    The demographics there just aren't good for us.

    •  swings states don't normally go for liberals (0+ / 0-)

      A conservative dem may have done well, but even that is a stretch.

    •  But we have to try. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ferg, stagemom, TheUnknown285, NThenUDie

      Florida is too big and too middle of the road to ignore.  If we stop trying, it'll get worse, maybe inexorably and for a long, long time.

      There are signs of hope. Look at the EIGHT Gooper-held Congressional seats that are in play in Florida alone (Districts 8, 9, 13, 15, 18, 21, 24, 25), including the three all-important Miami districts, where if we can swing enough of the Cuban community. we will have a fighting chance statewide.

      It is VITAL that we make a full court press for at least one chamber of the state legislature prior to redistricting, so that they can't screw us again.

      Obama will fight in every state, including even the ones that look really really bad for us.  He won't win them all, but he will help us down ticket in a lot of places. I think the aforementioned Cubans, for example, will be surprised and respectful to see a national Democrat actually come asking for their vote.

      "...And I woulda got away with it, if it hadn't been for that meddling Kos!" ---attributed to Tom DeLay

      by AdmiralNaismith on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:13:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ugh. Florida (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cybrestrike, CityLightsLover

    We don't need to talk about why we don't like to talk about Florida.

    Let's hope the HRC crowd will come around...soon

  •  Not a good state for him (7+ / 0-)

    Too many seniors.  Hispanic vote is divided.  Won't get the Jewish vote Clinton, Gore and even Kerry, got.

    If Hillary Clinton wins, the Democratic Party loses.

    by Paleo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:59:21 AM PDT

  •  Florida will be competitive . . . (8+ / 0-)

    When international monitors are in every precinct!

    Give a man a fish and you'll feed him for a Day. Teach him to surf the net and he'll never bother you again.

    by hedgerml on Wed May 21, 2008 at 10:59:33 AM PDT

  •  10 points in 6 months, no probs. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacrelicious, oscarsmom
  •  Forget Florida (8+ / 0-)

    It's still a rigged game. Worry about the Mountain West, flipping Virginia and/or North Carolina... and we're golden.

  •  I am sure the neocon derived anti-Obama (4+ / 0-)

    e-mails making the rounds among elderly Jewish voters in Florida are part of the reason. Add LIEberman's help to turn that same demographic towards McCain, and you have a trifecta.

    ELECT LIBERAL PROGRESSIVES NOW!

    by Hornito on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:00:16 AM PDT

  •  let's see after this week (5+ / 0-)

    Obama has a few stops in Florida this week, including one on Friday in South Florida. I wish I could attend put I have to work. Once he's campaigned in Florida, those numbers will move in his favor.

    Still not sure if any Democrat can win Florida this cycle. Charlie Crist is too popular. Even Dems like that guy.

    -7.38, -5.23 "Though the storm may be raging, and the billows tossing high, Lord I feel like going on."

    by CocoaLove on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:00:22 AM PDT

  •  He's down 10 with only 57% of the Dems?? (9+ / 0-)

    He must be doing well with the independents.

    Sim, a gente pode!

    by SLKRR on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:00:25 AM PDT

  •  FWIW (7+ / 0-)

    My mother, who is almost 80, and her sister, who is 90, are huge Obama fans, and are selling him hard to every other senior they can corner. And from what they say, succeeding in more than one conversion.

  •  Are there crosstabs? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacrelicious

    The demographic breakdown would be interesting.

  •  Where the hell are the SDs? (3+ / 0-)

    Why oh why won't they endorse and end this thing?  He could start to build up his support in places like Florida if the party would force Clinton out.  I am really angry with the SDs.

    Feminists for Obama!

    by possodent on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:01:25 AM PDT

  •  Obama will be competative in FL! (5+ / 0-)

    Forget this polling, once the militant hillaristas are factored out his numbers will rise.  He can force magoo to spend 20% of his budget defending texas and florida.

    ..to be healed/the broken thing must come apart/then be rejoined.

    by Zacapoet on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:01:45 AM PDT

  •  Garin talks about going to convention (0+ / 0-)

    Geoff Garin insists on MSNBC that "of course the math is there" for Clinton, since superdelegates could still swing to either Democrat.

    "At some point a candidate will have a majority (of delegates) needed to win the nomination, but we have not reached that point yet. We probably won’t reach that point on June 3."

    Adds: "In these swing states– Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia– we think there’s been a clear demonstration that Sen. Clinton is the more effective candidate, the candidate who more voters rally around as the best person to fix our economy and keep our country secure."
    Permalink

    What's madness but nobility of the soul at odds with circumstance?

    by slinkerwink on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:02:03 AM PDT

  •  What are the percentages? (0+ / 0-)

    of registered Dems, Repubs and Indies in FL?

    Stop bitching and start a revolution!

    by Randian on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:02:04 AM PDT

    •  Not sure what the registration numbers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Randian

      are now, but that has always been deceiving.  You really have the look at Fla as at least two different states.  North of I-4 is more like Alabama and Georgia.  Much of the Dem registration is really  Republican for all practical purposes.  The I-4 corridor (Tampa/St. Pete to Daytona) is the battleground area.  More Republican now, but not totally beyond hope.  South Fla. is heavy Dem, excepting SW Fla (Ft. Myers/Naples).  The Cuban vote in Miami has Rethug bias, but even that is showing signs of change now that the Castro exiles are dying off.  Younger generations are less lockstep anti-Dem.

      In an insane society, the sane man would appear insane

      by TampaCPA on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:38:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  HRC's campaigning against him in FL (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jdmorg, Happy Days

    and isn't helping.  I understand that she is big on getting the FL delegation seated but I find it very disturbing that after he scheduled this three day trip to FL she is now on her way there to campaign as well.  What exactly is she "campaigning" for in FL?  Seems to me this is just a way for her spread her "popular vote" theory and other garbage while he is trying to make headway against McCain there.  Anyone who thinks this is helpful is out in left field.

    Gandhi: "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. "

    by FoxfireTX on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:02:22 AM PDT

  •  Once Obama ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    is the nominee, his Florida numbers will undoubtedly improve.  But I don't think he can win it. A good combination of NV, NM, CO, IA, VA and perhaps NC can make up that difference - even if O also loses FL.  

    MI and PA are must wins I believe.  And most Clinton supporters feeling spiteful now will have plenty of time to get over their angst and realize McBush wants to appoint pro-life judges and wage for the next millenium.  

  •  It's the Math Stupid (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom, hillgiant

    Oil = $131+ going to $150-175 = Gas = $4 going to $6.

    We are paying for an unfunded war one way or another. Financing the war has crashed the dollar driving commodity cost. Once Barack can tie the cost of the war to the cost of everthing the sooner these hold-outs will come along.

    If McCain wins, the Supreme Court will be changed for 20 years. Something to Ponder.

    by Blue Texas on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:03:01 AM PDT

    •  Could you elaborate (0+ / 0-)

      on how funding the war devalues the dollar.

      Obama/Graham '08 Obama/Warner '12

      by egan on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:06:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The debt (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        FenderT206, oscarsmom, egan, hillgiant

        is killing the dollar .

        "The fussy armchair jackboots who live here 24/7, tossing around their cool "donut" slang are the rather pathetic souls at the root of the problem."

        by indycam on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:10:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Borrowed money, high government debt, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TheUnknown285, egan

        low interest on bonds, low returns = less confidence in foreign investors in US bonds they already hold. Value of bonds goes down, and dollar with them.

        Or something like that.

      •  The war is funded by borrowing. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jdmorg, oscarsmom, egan

        Since Bush didn't want to fund the war through taxes he borrowed the money from China and Asia. The dollar is only as strong as the government behind it. We are in record territory for both deficits and weakness of the dollar. Conversely all commodities are traded in dollars. Weaker the Dollar Higher the cost..

        If McCain wins, the Supreme Court will be changed for 20 years. Something to Ponder.

        by Blue Texas on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:18:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  to expand your point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          egan

          the price of oil vs in US$ went up 300% in 4 years, VS the euro  200%.

          There is another component in the borrowing, the FED keep lowering the prime rates (making  the US$ less  attractive to investor) to help the financial sector refinance on the cheap the pile of worthless mortgage related debt in their portfolios and to avoid (unsucessfully) a consumer credit crunch.

          for more info visit a fellow kossak's blog bondadd

          "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

          by IamTheJudge on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:29:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Repubs are working hard to spin the big increase (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      indycam, TheUnknown285, oscarsmom

      in gas prices as coming under the Democratic Congress elected in 2006.  They say the Dems didn't pass any legislation that would have helped and suggest that they would have.  (Heard that line of argument from a repub US rep just this morning on C-Span.)

      Sure, it makes no sense, but we need to be aware of it and work to counteract it.

      In fact, they will probably try to blame as much as they can on the Democratic Congress on a wide variety of topics.

      Some people fight fire with fire. Professionals use water.

      by Happy Days on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:13:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Now thats funny ! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        oscarsmom, Happy Days

        "The fussy armchair jackboots who live here 24/7, tossing around their cool "donut" slang are the rather pathetic souls at the root of the problem."

        by indycam on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:19:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Isn't it funny how gas prices go up (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        indycam, Happy Days

        soon as the Rebate checks started to hit. $300 is about a 2 months worth of gas price increases starting the 1st of May.. kinda funny how that works out, don't cha think..

        What did America expect when they hired to Oil Men to run the place...

        If McCain wins, the Supreme Court will be changed for 20 years. Something to Ponder.

        by Blue Texas on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:22:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Free oil for everyone ! (0+ / 0-)

          They were so happy to be elected , they are just giving it all away .

          "The fussy armchair jackboots who live here 24/7, tossing around their cool "donut" slang are the rather pathetic souls at the root of the problem."

          by indycam on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:24:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think any Dem could win FL (6+ / 0-)

    It's been getting redder every election.  I hope we compete there, but I think the mountain west and states like VA and NC are much riper targets.

    My candidate voted to ban the use of cluster bombs on kids. Did yours?

    by clonecone on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:03:04 AM PDT

  •  The will have to choose between insanity (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom, hillgiant

    (doing the same thing and expecting a different result) or change.  

    The definition of insanity is voting the same way and expecting a different result. I'm talking to you FL,OH, KY, WV!

    by Shhs on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:03:06 AM PDT

  •  How about retitling this thread... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom, shayshay

    ...another meaningless general election poll out way too early?

    I honestly don't think general election polls will be worth squat this time around.  They will also probably be all over the place.  The problem is that polls get their samples and then overlay the sample onto the turnout model.  I don't think anyone knows with any degree of certainty what turnout will look like in November.  Hence, the polls will be even more guesswork than normal.

  •  Obama has been very gracious in this race (0+ / 0-)

    many of his supporters (whose blogs shall remain nameless), not so much.  

    I think that's part of what you're seeing in Florida.

    Some of those unnamed Obama's supporters have gone beyond attacking Clinton to attacking her supporters.

  •  Florida will keep being stolen from us. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacrelicious, DemDachshund, hillgiant

    We thus need the new Obama midwest victory map.

  •  Florida will remain a red state in '08 (6+ / 0-)

    I hate to say it, but it's just not going blue this go 'round.  The amount older voters, retired military Republican leaners, 27%'ers, and yes, even young Republicans is too much of a thing to combat down here.  And don't get me started on the racists up in Sumter County and Lake County.

    As I've mentioned before elsewhere, the I-4 cooridor, Tampa, Jacksonville, some parts of Dade County, and small enclave in Orlando (lots of Republicans and Indies flipping to Obama) isn't going to be enough.  Obama will put a good fight...but it ain't gonna happen.

    "It's better to vote for what you want, and not get it, than to vote for what you don't want, and get it." Eugene Debs, 1912.

    by cybrestrike on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:04:06 AM PDT

    •  I agree.. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      boofdah, echatwa, cybrestrike, Dichro Gal

      as a Florida resident, I don't see how a democrat can win this state in 2008. I think we will do better down ticket because we have some good candidates but it will take time to build the party here again.

      •  See my other posts, but while Fla is uphill (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        boofdah

        it's not un-winnable.  Another thing we aren't factoring in is Obama's campaign style.  More ground up than top-down.

        Kerry brought in New Englanders to run local offices.  Nice folks, but not in touch with local customs, etc.  Obama will have a local face on his campaigns, and that enthusiasm will be hard to quantify.  It won't just be the same likely suspects running things.

        Think big, and don't forget that Obama can win with less money because of his community organizing skills he has brought to this campaign.  Florida is not a lost cause, and he doesn't have to waste money to win here.

        In an insane society, the sane man would appear insane

        by TampaCPA on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:46:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good Gosh! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TampaCPA, TheUnknown285, oscarsmom

    I am sick of you doom and gloomers. Again and again I have to keep kicking some asses around here. Just before NC all I heard was...ooohhhh I think he's losing steam yadayada.

    Listen up folks

    Florida is full of Republicans and indy's who HATE Clinton. She has her old bitty brigade down in south florida who hate Obama. Once Hillary is out of the picture long term, the majority will swing back to the dem side. But there will also be a lower republican turnout because Obama will be seen as the guy who slayed the Clinton spin Dragon. He will get a large turnout among younger and Indy's and will suppress Gop turnout due to his hero status as a Clinton Killer.

    TAKE THAT TO THE FKING BANK!

    "Evil is a lack of empathy, a total incapacity to feel with their fellow man." - Capt. Gilbert

    by KingGeorgetheTurd on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:04:11 AM PDT

  •  He made his first campaign appearance there (4+ / 0-)

    today (therefore FL polls are meaningless at this point)

  •  So weird and scary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Larry Madill

    That even though Obama is popular and everyone hates GOPers, the three big swing states- appalachian Ohio and Pennsylvania along with Florida could screw him over in the stupid electoral vote system.  

    Not that I trust Hillary to win at all, but why is it always something no matter who we nominate?  I say yes we can but am still scared.  

    The only place where Republicans are anywhere close to responsible is in the dictionary.

    by DemDachshund on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:04:26 AM PDT

    •  I've been wondering if it is possible (0+ / 0-)

      For Obama to win the Popular vote by a large margin, say by 15%, and still lose because of our Electoral College System.

      •  It's possible in theory, but ain't gonna happen (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larry Madill

        For one thing, he'll win PA.  And to get a 15% lead without winning Ohio would mean he'd have to run up the score hugely in already blue states like IL and CA, but still lose all the swing states like CO, NM, and NV.  I don't see how that could realistically occur.

        Sim, a gente pode!

        by SLKRR on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:34:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's an election rollercoaster (0+ / 0-)

      Not that I trust Hillary to win at all, but why is it always something no matter who we nominate?  I say yes we can but am still scared.

      It's called politics. This primary race has given Obama the ability to be better known. Hang in there, contribute $$$ and work hard for Obama.  Who wins in November will be who responds best to situations that crop up between now and then. My bet's on Obama. McCain's been dishonest, relatively clueless and flip-flopping faster than a fish out of water.

      There has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited. The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. - Sun Tzu

      by OHeyeO on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:35:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  florida is ground zero of foreclosures! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TampaCPA, KingGeorgetheTurd

    you people are wrong; this is going to be competative.

    ..to be healed/the broken thing must come apart/then be rejoined.

    by Zacapoet on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:04:43 AM PDT

  •  Numbers will improve ... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hillgiant, shayshay

    if and when Clinton throws in the towel, and starts supporting the nominee.

    If she bails on Obama like she did on Kerry and Gore, expect Obama to continue to have a tough time in Florida.

    Also, this is 6 months away.  10 points is easily made/lost in that time, so things could easily go our way despite what happens the Clinton support.

    --
    Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting

    by sacrelicious on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:04:46 AM PDT

  •  I'd like to see the Seminole Nation... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky, TheUnknown285, fleisch

    ...make him an honorary Seminole, as the Crow tribe did.  That might actually make a difference.

    "A person is as free as they believe themselves to be off." - Fortune cookie

    by The Termite on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:05:12 AM PDT

  •  Of course.... (1+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    redstatedemocrat
    Hidden by:
    Larry Madill

    ... the possibility that Florida voters resent Obama's 48-state approach to who gets to choose the Democratic nominee also exists, and it would be silly to not even mention that.

  •  Well, he hasnt campaigned there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shayshay

    until today. FL will be tough, but I will take polls seriously after more campaigning by Obama, and after Hillary endorses Obama.

  •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    the whole thing of selling Obama will have some rough spots (especially amongst those convinced that Clinton is more experienced and losing due to a mass male conspiracy, or some variant of that).

    Although the ones who are sure that "We don't know enough about him" will come around when people realize that Obama is a bit less exciting and interesting than people expect.

    At the risk of suggesting a theme that could horribly backfire. Obama can be depended on to do what he says, and McCain can't.

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:06:05 AM PDT

  •  Look elsewhere (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dichro Gal

    Florida is: old people, Jewish and Cuban.  Not exactly Obama country.

  •  I think FL will be competitive (6+ / 0-)

    the polls now are garbage until Clinton pulls out and everyone has a chance to take a deep breath.

    To me, the absolute most important issue ANY of us has, and this nation has, is that we are currently being ruled by a gang of immoral war criminals. -Hornito

    by discocarp on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:06:55 AM PDT

    •  I hope you're right. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheUnknown285

      Because it isn't looking too good down here.

      "It's better to vote for what you want, and not get it, than to vote for what you don't want, and get it." Eugene Debs, 1912.

      by cybrestrike on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:07:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Orlando here (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cybrestrike

        I think its pretty good. Talk to LOTS of indies and reps that intend to vote Obama.

        To me, the absolute most important issue ANY of us has, and this nation has, is that we are currently being ruled by a gang of immoral war criminals. -Hornito

        by discocarp on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:09:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, I live in O-Town... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          discocarp

          ...but in my travels elsewhere throughout the state, it's like a different world.  A lot of my Repub and Indy buddies are crossing over.  They're really, really sick of the way Bush has run things.  In 2004, they were handing me shots after Kerry lost.  In 2008, they are going to handing me shots after we celebrate in November...

          "It's better to vote for what you want, and not get it, than to vote for what you don't want, and get it." Eugene Debs, 1912.

          by cybrestrike on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:26:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  its scary, but my dad switched to Repub.... (0+ / 0-)

          to support Dumbya , falling for the blind nationalism so many of our baby boom generation seem so vulnerable to .

          and he intends to vote for Obama.

          he voted for Obama in the primary also, as a registered Republican I believe.

    •  Does anyone know if there is a GOTV registration (0+ / 0-)

      strategy to specifically target African-Americans and other minority groups?

      On NPR this a.m. they were talking about Obama being competitive in "red" states if the campaign can get enough african-americans registered and out voting.

      All I can say is I got family in Mississippi, and would seriously consider making a family vacation out of doing voter registration this summer.

      Damn it would be hot!

      I got soft out here in the mossy Pac NW......

  •  Obama's rallies in Florida will help him there. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hillgiant, shayshay

    They just never really got a chance to know him.

  •  Once again, why is Bob Graham not on VP lists? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285
  •  I don't like the FLA strategy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    echatwa, hillgiant

    Traditionally Florida is won by pandering to local issues, especially an absolutely ludicrous policy on Cuba that is not supported by the rest of the country.  

    As though Cuba were worse than China...

    I say let Florida go if you can't win it without that.  I want Obama to maintain his policy of talking to countries we happen not to like at the moment.

  •  Florida will be decided.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, beltane

    ...by less than 10.

    Miami (south Florida)  + relatively large AA population + an abundance of college towns + McCain's stupidity should see Florida hanging in the balances come Nov.

    No way McCain maintains a 10 point lead in FL.

    "So this is how liberty dies. With thunderous applause."--Padmé Amidala

    by wyvern on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:08:58 AM PDT

  •  Totally do-able with Obama/Edwards! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    According to these delightful SUSA polls, the Obama/Edwards ticket out-performs Obama by himself by 7 points in California, 9 points in Pennsylvania and 9 points in New Mexico. And these are all the states polled so far with this combination. So, it's safe to say that the right running mate could make a big difference here as well.

  •  "Ultimately, most of the party will come together (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hillgiant

    Given the closeness of the last 2 elections, "most" won't cut it Kos.....we need a tsunami to counter the Republican tricks that always win in close elections.
    As much as Obama and Hillary don't like each other, they need each other. If their egos are so big that they can't see that a joint ticket is the path to victory, then they will learn the lesson the hard way.

  •  Florida has been trending further red (0+ / 0-)

    in the last few years.

    Florida cannot be counted on unless you pick a Floridian VP

    John W. McCain, Bush's third term.

    by aaraujo on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:09:57 AM PDT

  •  There is something missing from the poll (0+ / 0-)

    I have read MANY times how older people understand just how someone 72 years old deals with stuff.  Almost every single thing I have read about this, older people say that at 72, you are not mentally capable of the job of POTUS, and one older veteran went on to say that he didn't think McCain could possibly NOT have PTSD.  I think McCain dragging his hideous corpse of a wife down to Florida will not sit well with the elderly in areas and Obama will charm the hell out of them.  I know a bunch of older people (friends of my parents) a LOT of them Republicans who are voting for Obama this fall, and they are all over 70.

  •  He never campaigned in Florida (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wyvern, kulshan, shayshay

    So the polls there don't really matter, his numbers will go up, just like every other place he has ever set foot.

  •  Maybe it's neither racism nor sour grapes (0+ / 0-)

    I know some people who would vote for Clinton and not Obama, over McCain.  They don't strike me as racist, they just don't like Obama.  They're leaning towards McCain because of it.  They're against the war, too.

    I don't know what to make of it.

  •  Don't depend on Florida...it has been so long (0+ / 0-)

    since Florida has done anything right...I can't even remember it.

    By the way, the HBO movie "Recount"is on May 25th at 9:00pm. It should be an interesting look into Florida politics...staring Katherine Harris.

    Somebody will have to tell me about it as I don't get HBO or watch hardy any TV.

    "We are a Plutocracy, we ought to face it. We need, desperately, to find new ways to hear independent voices & points of view" Ramsey Clark US AG

    by Mr SeeMore on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:12:07 AM PDT

  •  I just get the sense that the Reps just dont get (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wyvern

    the warm fuzzies about McGramps.  Something tells me that Rep turnout will be much lower than pollsters indicate, which will skew actual vote returns more toward Obama in the end.

  •  The voters in FL will vote , (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    the ones that vote for the dem ,
    will be voting for the next President ,
    the ones who vote R will be voting for the loser .

    "The fussy armchair jackboots who live here 24/7, tossing around their cool "donut" slang are the rather pathetic souls at the root of the problem."

    by indycam on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:12:54 AM PDT

  •  Um isn't this Obama's first day in FL? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dansac

    How about we give him a chance to campaign in the state AND get him into general election mode with McCain (after Clinton concedes) before we start hand wringing about losing it.

    He usually improves in his numbers after campaigning and I dont see how this is any different.

  •  Hillary road block on cable, shame on BO alert! (0+ / 0-)

    now Hillary is "passionately arguing" for ALL the seats in Florida... I wonder why?

  •  FL paradigm obsolete (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    Don't get me wrong - I am a big supporter the 50 State Strategy, but we can't win 'em all.

    Stating the obvious here, but Obama is changing the map. He is just stonger in the Midwest and West (where some help from Libertarians siphoning votes from Republicans will be a big help, I think).

    I still want OH, though.

  •  There won't be a Unity Bounce for few more months (0+ / 0-)

    I don't have the crosstabs, but add 10-15% Dem support to his total and recalculate the poll.  In my opinion, that would give a more realistic picture.

  •  Keep in mind, Obama has overcome much bigger (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, echatwa, shayshay

    deficits once he starts campaigning in a state. I think once the choice is just Obama or McCain, the numbers will change drastically.

    "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." Sen Daniel Patrick Moynihan

    by atlliberal on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:18:18 AM PDT

  •  Why does Hillary keep saying (0+ / 0-)

    that the popular vote matters and must be counted?

    She was just on TV live, on CNN and MSNBC both, saying that Floridians know what it's like to not have their votes counted, and to have the election won by the person who didn't win the most popular votes.

    When will she get it through her head that we are not counting the popular vote to determine a nominee? What about all the caucus states that have no popular vote to count? The voters in those states aren't represented at all.

    And why do the journalists keep letting her get away with this?

    The popular vote has no bearing on this process. It's almost as bad as their next cry, that she's winning the electoral vote states that the Dems must win to win in November. As if a Dem won't win them or that the electoral votes have any bearing on the primary process.

    •  Lying with statistics (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brooke In Seattle

      Every once in a while (like Tweety for moment last night) it will be acknowledged. But usually the corporate media just lets it go.

      •  They see increased viewership (0+ / 0-)

        The MSM gets higher ratings when the primary race drags on. Tweety even said he wants this to go to midnight on Wednesday at the convention in Denver in August. As the race goes on, so does Hillary for a different reason - it's her only path to victory.

        There has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited. The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. - Sun Tzu

        by OHeyeO on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:53:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  and Bush bumps Hillary to honor Ted Kennedy (0+ / 0-)

    every dog has his day.

  •  Hillary Clinton needs to say these things (0+ / 0-)

    Either way, those people will ultimately have to choose between staying in Iraq for 100 years or getting out, and between a hard-right anti-choice Supreme Court or one that will, at the very least, hold its current ground (the most likely retirements on the court are currently two of its most liberal members).

    That's great what you said, but it's Hillary who needs to say these things. I suspect she will once the race is over.  

  •  Working on it. (0+ / 0-)

    I'm speaking to my neighbors, and it could be worse.  A few of them are Republicans who voted for Bush (2x) and who are seriously considering voting for Obama this time.

    I'll keep hammering away.

  •  Fox News *hearts* Clinton (0+ / 0-)

    The Clinton supporters are hopping all over that latest poll showing her with a lead over McCain in North Carolina. But if she were the nominee, we all know the love affair Fox News has developed for her would quickly evaporate, and likely the support she is seeing in conservative areas of the country would go with it.

    And what about this tidbit from Tuesday's exit polls?

    "If in November the candidates for president are McCain and Clinton, you would vote for:"

    Results:
    Kentucky -- 77% Clinton, 16% McCain, 5% No vote
    Oregon -- 85% Clinton, 10% McCain, 3% No vote

    These are both closed primaries and she won Kentucky big!  

  •  Hillary - look in the mirror (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stagemom

    and see that the problem is you.  As posted on Smith's blog at Politico, she had this to say on radio today about the battle over the Florida delegates:

    "We are turning this into a major battle that I think is really ill serving the party."

    Yes, Hillary - you are.

    •  I've said it before and I'll say it again (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vicky

      She is the Democratic Nixon--brilliant, but paranoid, cynical, selfish and insecure, and thus an extremely dangerous person. All the more so because unlike Nixon, she has a large cult of personality for whom she can almost literally do no wrong.

      I'm wondering, if she isn't bluffing, and actually threatens to destroy Obama's chances, she might need to be politically destroyed, perhaps by digging up stuff on her that infuriates and shocks her base, proving that she's not really their champion and is just a hypocritical demagogue (which, of course, the rest of us know that she is).

      We should know in a few weeks. I suspect that she's bluffing. For everyone's sake I hope that she is. Not because she's better than that, but because I don't think that she has the nerve. People who go out of their way to look tough, which she's been doing, are usually overcompensating for their actually not being that tough, which deep down they know.

      "I will vote for the Democratic candidate for president--period." --Me

      by kovie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:33:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  whoa. she said that? telling, eh? n/t (0+ / 0-)
  •  Florida will be REALLY tough (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stagemom

    I will say that it will be TOUGHER than Michigan but NOT impossible.

    Obama/Webb '08 or Obama/Kaine '08

    by Drdemocrat on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:21:52 AM PDT

    •  it better be tougher than Michigan (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oscarsmom

      I don't expect MI to be that tough -- it won't be a walk, but it's not FL.

      "This union may never be perfect, but generation after generation has shown that it can always be perfected." - Barack Obama (3.18.08)

      by lapis on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:25:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Social Security (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky

    McCain has a long history of hostility to Social Security and Medicare that needs to be exposed; he may not understand that "marry into money and run for public office" is not a retirement plan that's going to work for everyone. That won't help him in Florida, though with the military vote and the overall conservatism of the place McCain starts out with the advantage.

    Stuck Between Stations : Thoughts from a bottomless pool of useless information.

    by Answer Guy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:24:30 AM PDT

  •  we have to face up to the facts that some of (0+ / 0-)

    those that vote for hillary will never vote for Obama. We just have to hope it is a small percentage.

    •  And they can no longer be considered Democrats (0+ / 0-)

      assuming that they ever were. Anyone selfish and/or delusional enough to help put more wingnut judges on the courts and start new "preventive" wars just because their candidate lost cannot possibly be a Democrat. The tent is simply not that big.

      Let them get their own tent.

      "I will vote for the Democratic candidate for president--period." --Me

      by kovie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:27:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm willing to trade those people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      balancedscales

      for an increased AA & youth vote, new voters, independents, and disillusioned Bush voters.

      I don't think we need to appease them by making Hillary VP.  They constitute a small portion of a small portion of the  total GE electorate--die-hard Hillary supporting Dem primary voters.

      Never give up! Never surrender!

      by oscarsmom on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:49:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  She's making a speech right now in Florida (7+ / 0-)

    I'm getting totally creeped out by it, the tone, the content, the body language, the veiled threats and insinuations. She resembles a faux populist demagogue in the Nixon or Bush II manner, going on about how mere "technicalities" shouldn't deprive Florida voters of the right to vote, which were in fact the rules of her own party. As a lawyer, she should know better than most that if rules are not respected, bent to favor this or that person's needs, they mean nothing, and chaos ensues. She's already gone out of her way to discredit the legitimacy of caucus results. Now she's trying to discredit her own party's rules, which she herself signed onto and agreed to honor before the primaries began.

    She knows that she's almost certainly going to lose this battle. I don't think that she's so delusional as to believe otherwise. What she's doing, as I see it, is to solidify her power base of supporters within the party to the point where she can make or break Obama's victory in November, and become an old-school type of power broker. I can see the logic of this. I just don't like to see it in my party. It's what Republicans do, and what Democrats should not. This is a person who operates out of insecurity, cynicism, mistrust, even paranoia, not strength and confidence. Like I said, Nixon or Bush II.

    She cannot be ignored or wished away right now. Obama knows this. On the other hand, something needs to be done to prevent her from being able to amass the kind of power that could be a threat to party unity and its agenda. This is one angry, bitter and power-hungry politician who is, in my opinion, extremely dangerous, because she puts her own interests above those of the party or country, and has the power to back it up. She is a loose cannon, and must be dealt with in time. It has nothing to do with her gender or policies, but rather with her ego, character, judgement and agenda, which run counter to the party and country's interests. Nor does it matter that she's a Democrat or liberal. She is an out of control demagogue. The fact that she's on "our" side is utterly irrelevant. No kings--or queens.

    "I will vote for the Democratic candidate for president--period." --Me

    by kovie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:25:04 AM PDT

    •  Couldn't have said it better myself (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oscarsmom
    •  "cornered" and "rabid" come to mind. eom (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oscarsmom
      •  Nah, it's more sophisticated than that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kulshan

        There's a method to her madness. This is not mere lashing out in denial of her imminent defeat. This is trying to make lemonade out of lemons, putting together a serious power base of her own within the party to give her the power to dictate terms. There is a logic to it. This is what labor or the black caucus has done for decades. Except that her power base is entirely devoted to her and her husband, not a wider constituency. She does NOT represent the interests of all the people whom she pretends to champion. She is using them--and they are letting themselves be used--to become the second most powerful person in the party. And that's just dangerous. If she tries to take this further, beyond the symbolic, she will need to be stopped, and cut down, or else I see her being a thorn in Obama and the party's side for years to come, just for the hell of it, as opposed to for a good cause (a role she forever gave up the right to claim when she voted for the war).

        "I will vote for the Democratic candidate for president--period." --Me

        by kovie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:01:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, thats called delusional. clinical dignosis.. (0+ / 0-)

          would help her get to the root of the possible psychosis that would lead here to believe that somehow she is going to win more delegates than are actually available.

          either way, I feel sorry for her.

          •  My point is that all this apparent (0+ / 0-)

            outward attempt to win a majority of delegates is just a facade, a ruse she has created in order to keep her loyal base of delusional supporters angry and energized, which she'll need in order to obtain what I believe she's actually after, which is major concessions from Obama and party leaders, and to essentially be the second most powerful person in the party after him. She knows that she can't win the nomination now, and it's not about that. Don't listen to what she says. Look at what she's doing. She's creating the conditions by which she's hoping to hold Obama and the party hostage to her interests. That might be cynical and despicable, but it's not delusional. It's Nixonian politics. It might take a certain degree of moral delusion to do it, but not literal, psychiatric delusion. She's after power, not the nomination. The Clintons are and always have been about power, above all else.

            "I will vote for the Democratic candidate for president--period." --Me

            by kovie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:18:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Try Wallace (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andydoubtless

      Her 'populist' tone is really starting to resemble Wallace.  When she starts talking about 'her' people, it is becoming more obvious what she means.

      Stagflation, here we come

      by smoosh21 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:25:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  For a second I thought you meant William Wallace (0+ / 0-)

        and had images of Hillary in blue face paint leading a small ragtag army of older women and white Appalachians to Denver, screaming "We will never surrender!".

        I assume, though, that you mean George Wallace. Not sure that Hillary would appreciate the comparison, if you know what I mean. Although, there are some obvious differences. Wallace genuinely believed in his white supremacist crap, while Hillary is, as on every other issue, merely exploiting it because she sees a political opportunity there. I am convinced that she no longer has any true conviction about anything, other than winning. So I still stand by my Nixon comparison.

        We have a knack for producing opportunistic, disengenuous and power-hungry cynics in the US, don't we? Sadly, not restricted to the right. I'm hoping that our side, though, proves once again to be better at dealing with our own Nixons--or Wallaces.

        "I will vote for the Democratic candidate for president--period." --Me

        by kovie on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:48:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Florida is worst of both worlds (0+ / 0-)

    ... because their GOP legislature made it that way for us.

    It was the legislature that moved up the primary date, not the Democratic Party (although there had to be some degree of complicity).

    So you have the first sting of a primary that doesn't matter, the second sting of no one being able to correct the first error and get a revote set up, and the third sting of even if there was a revote today it wouldn't mean much as Obama's already got a substantial lead over Hillary anyway.

    So Florida voters have a right to be (ahem) bitter about this whole process.

    But, given time, and some Obama boots on the ground in the state, there is still a chance to turn Florida into a true battleground come the fall.

    But, hey, maybe Debbie Wasserman Schulz really doesn't want Obama to campaign for her in her district once he's the nominee... but I doubt it.

  •  White women will come home. (4+ / 0-)

    They overwhelmingly oppose the war in Iraq. Abortion aside, that is the issue that will kill McCain. Women will move toward Obama as soon as Hillary drops out and endorses him.

  •  I don't really care (0+ / 0-)

    who wins at this point, but I do think it's mildly amusing any positive for Clinton is painted as "someone must be lying".

    Some say we need a third party. I wish we had a second party. -- Jim Hightower

    by joe m on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:30:16 AM PDT

  •  Remember, at this point Bush led by 10 in WI (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom

    After Obama's campaigning he should be in good shape here.
    A lot of these Jewish voters just need Obama to talk to them and tell them who he is.  He can get Kerry numbers with Floridan Jews.

  •  No more polls until Obama secures the nomination (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom

    I've always been leery of polls, but they do shape public perception and opinion. There is less uncertainty now about Obama's nomination, but until Hillary is completely out of the picture I don't think we can get an accurate picture of how the election might go.

    We are going to need Hillary's supporters in November. We have to show them we understand their concerns and to earn their trust. I know it's difficult for supporters to see the faults in their own candidate when they appear glaringly obvious to others.

    "Never have so few taken so much from so many for so long."

    by londubh on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:06 AM PDT

  •  Screw Florida, It'd be easier to Flip Texas. (4+ / 0-)

    Along with some other Southern states like Mississippi. Flip Colorado, and Ohio let Appalachia and Florida go.. As long as we can get Penn should be ok...

    If McCain wins, the Supreme Court will be changed for 20 years. Something to Ponder.

    by Blue Texas on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:23 AM PDT

  •  Gotta wonder what is wrong with these folks. (0+ / 0-)

    Are they really that died-in-the-wool Republican?

    -6.5, -7.59. John McSame - running for Bush's third term. We can't afford it.

    by DrWolfy on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:37 AM PDT

  •  Is Wasserman-Schultz planning to help BO in FL? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom

    Just askin', given her much discussed tight relationships with good friends in the State Republican delegation. I recall reading that these BFF relationships have prevented her from working her hardest to turn the State from Red to Blue.

    Clearly, her help would be welcome if it's forthcoming.  Anyone in her district have a view on whether it will be?

    "Those dunes are to the Midwest what the Grand Canyon is to Arizona and the Yosemite is to California." - Carl Sandburg

    by Critical Dune on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:32:52 AM PDT

    •  She is planning on helping herself (0+ / 0-)

      As FL has done in the last several elections and in this primary (moving the primary date up) they could care less about the people of Florida.  I hope one day they get voted out and less power hungry people are chosen.

      •  That's unfortunate. (0+ / 0-)

        I know she's a big Hillary supporter. Was curious whether she gets the big picture.  So far it seems not.  

        "Those dunes are to the Midwest what the Grand Canyon is to Arizona and the Yosemite is to California." - Carl Sandburg

        by Critical Dune on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:45:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats won't win Florida so long as the (0+ / 0-)

    crackers continue to control the election machinery in the state.

  •  I don't think characterizing (0+ / 0-)

    Clinton supporters as either bearing indefensible grudges, OR purposefully misleading pollsters in order to bolster the credibility of Hillary's argument for the nomination is very helpful.  

    I don't think it's helpful for a variety of reasons, the most important of which is that it allows Obama to elide very real difficulties he'll face in November.  I think a compelling case can be made that Clinton's coalition contains more traditional swing voters.  Dismissing their current sentiments as either temporary grudges or some ridiculous political tactic encourages an attitude that might result in Obama ignoring them come November.  

    Let's be clear--we need to contest this state.  The Democratic race is over.  If Hillary isn't out by mid-June, we'll apply tremendous pressure.  But the heat of the primary should NOT result in us dismissing very real concerns.  

    •  'Bama's no dummy. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oscarsmom
    •  Her hardcore "grudge vote" (0+ / 0-)

      I'd say that's about 20% of all her voters through June 3rd - the maximum "coddling" yield.

      About 60% will vote for Obama without any special prodding (from "I'll hold my nose (literally) while I do it, but I will" to "I liked them both, voted for her, but he's definitely better than McCain!), and 20% are l-o-s-t. Period. (DINO, dittoheads, etc. who never had any real intention of voting for her in November in the first place).

  •  Obama/Clinton 08 (0+ / 0-)

    Sorry. That IS the answer here.

    Back from the dead due to a busted ankle and severe boredom.

    by coigue on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:38:08 AM PDT

  •  Calm Down (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    theran, oscarsmom, notquitedelilah

    First of all, Obama has gained ground in Florida from a month ago.  Second, you have to wonder if certain Obama groups (blacks, young people, and college students, although not mutually exlusive) are being undersampled.  Second, a lot of traditional Democratic blocs will come home.  Remember, a lot of Democrats view McCain as a moderate.  Wait for the general election campaign to happen and McCain's pandering to the far right to become evident.

  •  Damn Markos... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ImagineOhio

    Some of that may be the racist vote, but I suspect that percentage is tiny.

    You've never spent any time in Florida away from the beaches and theme parks have you.

    FL still has lots of DINOs who only register as Dems to be able to vote in the local and primary elections.

    The racist vote is a massive block and not all are republicans, yet.

    The biggest threat to America is not communism, it's moving America toward a fascist theocracy... -- Frank Zappa

    by NCrefugee on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:39:00 AM PDT

    •  racist--"tiny"??? (0+ / 0-)

      I'm glad you said this!  I stopped at that line in Kos' diary, too.

      Perhaps Kos is too young;  perhaps he is too optimistic and believes too much in the humanity of human beings.

      The racist vote is out there; it's big enough.  It's how Hillary won Ohio--that, I know.  And it's probably how she won PA, WVa and KY.  Lots of those "white working class voters" (a euphemism for white racists) will not vote for O.  

      And Republicans know precisely that this is the vote they need, in order to win: "Whatever it takes," is how one racist Republican put it, as he told me he voted for Hillary in the Ohio primary.

      We should not underestimate the racist vote.  It is not "tiny."  It's old, white and scared, it's uneducated; it believes Barack is a Muslim--still, even when the facts tell them otherwise.  

      Barack is right to be all-inclusive; but I hope the people behind him realize just how deep the racist poison goes in this country.

  •  we have to pray that the media will start asking (0+ / 0-)

    her questions about her debt...
    (altho they benefit from the ratings of a long primary, so we'll see if they do their job.  they did their job for mccain by exposing romney and his campaign $$$.)

  •  Go Chelsea!! (0+ / 0-)

    Win the Champions League Championship!!

  •  Ten points? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom

    In the Obama campaign, ten points is nothing. Any state where he's within ten points of McCain NOW is going to be competitive in the general election.

  •  She just said it was O's choice to keep his name (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    landrew, oscarsmom

    off of Michigan's ballot -- implying that she should get those Michigan votes, because he CHOSE not to contest that primary.

    She is infuriating.

    •  infuriating (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Yougottahavehope

      would you not consider it infuriating that a person is to be nominated with idiotic rules? H won almost all the big Dem states and O won a bunch of Rep. strongholds that Dems can't win and he's going to put McCain in the whitehouse.

      Or this?

      The Floridians were disenfranchised in 2000 by the Republicans. This year the Dems will do it.  What's the difference. To hell with O.

      Now--to be calm--Obama can win and give H what she wants. Why not just do it and tell her she's great. The H people will be grateful and support O in the general.

      C

      •  The rules are the rules (0+ / 0-)

        Get over it, HRC supporters.

        It's not as if Hillary came from this powerless segment within the Dem party. Her husband was the president -- and head of the party, for heaven's sakes.

        Oh, and I just recommended Campion's post when I simply meant to reply to it.

        There's not much to recommend this ridiculous complaining over the referees.

  •  Florida voters will want President Obama's SCOTUS (0+ / 0-)

    When they understand that President Obama will only nominate judges who understand and will vote for people powered LGBT marital rights (along with protecting choice) the choice for the voters will be clear. They will vote for President Obama because he will deliver on people powered LGBT marital rights.

    •  Actually, Obama probably won't (0+ / 0-)

      get a chance (unless we're really lucky) to replace any of the real right wingers (Scalia's the oldest, but looks disturbingly healthy). Obama is more likely to get a chance to replace liberals with liberals, which will prevent the court from sliding back as badly, but progress via the US Supreme Court is something we are not going to see for a long time.

      On the other hand, marriage is something that is primarily a matter of state law...once enough states provide civil unions or same-sex marriage, there will be a movement to repeal DOMA. It won't happen through SCOTUS...they are going to be a reactionary force for a long time to come.

      At any rate, Floridians won't be voting for president on the basis of SCOTUS nominations...hardly anyone does that, mostly scholarly types, who tend to be thin on the ground in Florida.

      "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

      by Alice in Florida on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:19:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Our victories come from people powered Courts (0+ / 0-)

        In California and Massachusetts. Unfortunately and tragically because of voter fraud, too many states have passed constitutional amendments banning LGBT marriage. It is my hope that one day a people powered Court will declear such amendments unconstitutional. But, I am confident that we have 4 people powered votes on the SCOTUS today that understand that people powered LGBT progressive marital rights exist in the Constitution. The wildcard is Kennedy but I understand we can't take a chance on him being the 5th people powered vote. I would love to be able to replace Scalia, Thomas, Alito or Roberts who are clearly against people power on this issue.
        As Mr. Kos wisely and toughly but tenderly points out, for years the issue of Roe v. Wade HAS been an important issue in political races. I am confident that the people are fed up with the Court not finding that people powered progressive LGBT marital right in the Constitutiona and that issue will also be in the hearts and minds of voters in 2008 and we have assurances that President Obama will litmus test that issue the same way he will Roe. It is up to us as people powered progressives to educate voters on the fact that Obama nominees will find that people powered right the same way they will protect Roe. I hope Keith O. addresses this point in one of his powerful Special Comments.

        •  The Supreme Court is designed to be (0+ / 0-)

          the very opposite of "people powered"--the framers of the constitution designed the federal courts to be insulated from political pressure, including from "the people." Political influence tends to come from the decision of a president to appoint a person of a certain ideology...but this influence tends to take a long time to develop, since previous appointees often stay on for life, so we will be suffering the effects of Reagan, Bush I and Bush II for many years to come. Roe v. Wade will most likely be overturned in the next couple of years...probably when Obama is president.

          "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

          by Alice in Florida on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:34:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  As people powered progressives we need the SCOTUS (0+ / 0-)

            It has given us Roe, it has given us Lawrence, and it will give us our most glorious people powered victory when they give us LGBT marital rights as fundamental to the Constitution. It is who we are as kossacks, it is what we fight for daily.
            While the victories Mr. Kos celebrate with us in terms of the power of the message of our wonderful stars of stage and screen, our many friends in the media ON THAT ISSUE, our law school faculty fighters and the fantastic Gay/Straight alliances in schools, we still need the SCOTUS to give us that people powered right. It should not be left to the states or the uneducated voter to determine whether two members of the same gender should be allowed to spend a lifetime together in sweet loving bliss.

  •  thank you, sidney blumenthal! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    theran
  •  I was at the Tampa rally today. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oscarsmom, Yougottahavehope

    Just got home, and from the looks of things, Obama can compete in Florida.  I know rallies don't always tell the tale, but the crowd was big and enthusiastic.  People were so hyped up they cheered when the workers put the podium on the platform.

    There will be alot of work to do in Florida, but I think it can be done.

    Any party that would lie to start a war would also steal an election.

    by landrew on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:48:04 AM PDT

  •  We hope to be gone from FL (0+ / 0-)

    well before the November election. Sad, because two more votes for Obama are two more votes for Obama. And if we're still here, all the better toward FL Dem strength.

    Consider that Obama has not campaigned here. Consider that this is not, contrary to Dem wishes, a purple state -- it is a red state, for all practical purposes. Given its votes in the past two generals, the power of the state government (both state legistlatures, governor, one senator), the large Cuban population whose votes are very much in doubt right now, and its general conservatism buy-in to people like Bush and McCain, it will be an uphill climb.

    But by the time November comes around, John McCain will be fully exposed for the phony he is, and FL will, I predict, go narrowly for Obama. FL is not a must win for Obama. It's just not. Not the same way PA, NJ, OH, MO, IA, MN, WI are.

    The national polls are moving Obama's way early, despite having had to run a national primary campaign against two candidates from separate parties and not having campaigning in some states at all (a huge mistake, IMO). But with a 50-state strategy, which Obama should incorporate in the presidential race this fall, more states will come his way (as will more seats in Congress, governorships, state legislatures).

    No one can relax. And things are looking good. Just give FL time to catch up with the rest of the nation, time it always needs.

    McCain: "I think that clearly my fortunes have a lot to do with what's happening in Iraq" ... Buh-bye!

    by RevJoe on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:50:54 AM PDT

  •  Florida: Where weirdness abounds (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    theran

    It's a lovely state, but it seems that nearly every weird story emanates from Florida.

    It's perfect for Hillary, really.

  •  Roberts ALito scalia could be on the court for ma (0+ / 0-)

    ny more years. I think the supreme court batte may have been lost already.

    Sorry I have to run to the Senate floor to abolish torture.

    by bten on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:53:45 AM PDT

  •  The Republican Economic Bat hasn't (0+ / 0-)

    Hit'em in the head hard enough.. But just wait this summer is going to be brutal economically. Who can afford to drive to Florida? It's an 8 hour drive from the panhandle to Miami. The Foreclosure rate is still rising, and now Prime Borrower that took out Option Arms will have their monthly payment rise from avg $900 to $3000 month.. Just wait this summer is not going to be kind to Florida.

    Just One Gulf Hurricane will increase the price of gas to $10-$15,

    If McCain wins, the Supreme Court will be changed for 20 years. Something to Ponder.

    by Blue Texas on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:54:56 AM PDT

  •  I gotta say (0+ / 0-)

    and I know we're not supposed to ... I'm willing at this point to take Florida out of "play" for the time being. I'll take a combination of NH, IA, NM, NV, CO, MO (and 1 vote from NE!), along with the states carried both both Kerry and Gore. From the polling cross-tabs, it appears there are conservative Dems from Orlando on north who would welcome a Return of the Clintons ("we aren't that thrilled with her specifically, but we'll take him back in the two-fer"); I'm just not convinced that all the campaigning in the world will bring them back? The situation in that state overall seems just too messed up to me.

    Ohio is a must-try, deserving of significant resources, but we can win without it, if necessary. I believe PA and MI should be classified as "leans Dem" not tossup.

  •  Florida is still pretty racist (0+ / 0-)

    Jim Crow is still alive and well in many parts of backwater Florida.  Consider the blatant suppression and disenfranchisement of Black voters in 2000.  Consider the ongoing police harrassment of Blacks in both rural and urban Florida communities.  The worst area is northwest Florida, which I think of as south Alabama.  

    Q. What would John McCain be without Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham? A. Just another Fred Thompson

    by mojave mike on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:57:57 AM PDT

    •  That's the part with the least people (0+ / 0-)

      Most of the votes are on the coasts and in the I-4 corridor (Orlando). Most of Florida is turning more Democratic in terms of voter registration (despite not having a primary recognized by the DNC) this year...younger people signing up to vote are registering as Dems, the populous areas are definitely turning bluer. Pinellas County, which has been majority-Republican for a very long time, turned majority Democratic this year--and these are real Democrats, not Dixiecrats.

      One other point--Charlie Crist did away with the strict no-votes-for-convicted-felons rule under Bush...there are still some restrictions (based on whether it was a violent felony, etc.), but not nearly as bad. Also, there will be paper ballots (opti-scan) in all counties (except possibly Hillsborough), so there will be a paper trail.

      "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

      by Alice in Florida on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:29:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Racist when it benefits? (0+ / 0-)

      So you think Florida is racist because Obama is losing here?  Did you ever stop and think that maybe Floridians are smart enough to see through his traditional rhetoric?  Obama is all talk and no action.  He has never given a straight answer to a direct question.  He is terrific when he is reading a speech that he has practiced and been coached on.  When it comes down to a debate he falters, when a reporter asks an unexpected question he ignores them and pretends it wasn't asked.  Maybe these are some of the reasons that Obama is losing in Florida.  It is so easy to claim the race card any time the outcome does not fall in your favor.  You want to talk about racist?  Why is it that Obama garners over 90% of the black vote?  You think that isn't voting along racial lines?  Or is it only racist when it benefits Obama?  Other wise you just consider it "loyalty".

  •  I know he doesn't want it, (0+ / 0-)

    and I know he'd make a kickass AG, but John Edwards needs to be on that ticket.  Ask him, Barack, and accept it, John.  For the party and the country.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/...

    This message has not been approved by the corporate media.

    by jre2k8 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 11:59:30 AM PDT

  •  comments at pollster.com are (0+ / 0-)

    depressing me today.

    Can someone give me a pick me up?

  •  The Problem with Florida (0+ / 0-)

    Is not the South Florida, Miami area, older Jewish voters.   These people are progressive.   (mostly)   They are less likely to fall for race bating.   They are more likely to be informed, educated and open minded.  

    The Problem with Florida is North Florida... which is really the deep South.   Race baiting works there with low information, uneducated voters.

    Once Clinton is no longer a viable choice, the people of North Florida will have a choice between a black man and a white man.   For some, that IS the choice.  

    Sadly, the Democratic party has not rejected race as a metric for the voters to use in making that decision.  Instead, the Clinton campaign has embraced it and pointed to it as a valid reason she should be the nominee.    

  •  Florida isn't that difficult (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alice in Florida

    There's a large black population, the state has been hit especially hard by the housing crisis, and the majority of hispanics in Florida are democrats for the first time.
    Obama has some work to do introducing himself, and reuniting the party, but once Hill drops out it should be easy.

    •  Obama needs to spend some time here (0+ / 0-)

      and in places other than fundraising parties....today's rally and others planned for the state are a step in the right direction.

      "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

      by Alice in Florida on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:32:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL and OH dont factor into Obamas math (0+ / 0-)

    He's not going to be seriously competitive in FL because of the demographics that favor Hillary/McCain or in OH because of the Appalachia factor.

    Obama's math relies heavily on taking down purple states in middle America (MO, CO, WI), taking PA and NC.

    The one legit claim Hillary has been making lately is that she brings OH and FL to the party.  Its very compelling actually.  If I were her thats what Id attack Obama on, not this popular vote mularkey.

    •  False claims (0+ / 0-)

      At this point, if the only reason that the Supers give the nomination to Hillary is that she might take Florida and Ohio, we are guaranteed to lose.

      First of all, McCain won't even have to campaign anywhere in the South.  Not only is she repelling White voters outside of Appalachia, Black voters will also not be coming out in the numbers they have in the primary.   McCain would also not have to campaign in the West.  

      All the GOP has to do is concede the Pacific Coast to her as well as New England New York and Pennsylvania and they will concentrate on Ohio, Florida and Midwest.  

      Her lead will rapidly evaporate, as it has against Obama.  Come November, I don't think she will carry any of those states.

      I am not trying to claim Obama will.  But I think he does much better across the board and will be in better shape come November for both him and all congressional candidates.

      Stagflation, here we come

      by smoosh21 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:31:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL ain't tough for Hillary. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    coigue

    Put her on the ticket and watch it go blue.

    An electoral strategy that doesn't include Ohio or Florida is a strategy for defeat.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:30:42 PM PDT

  •  still early plenty of time to close 10 points (0+ / 0-)

    There is plenty of time for Obama to make up the difference before November. Most people do not follow politics as close as the people who post and follow websites like this. I think a lot of average voters are going  with McCain right now because they know his name and his supposed 'maverick' style. Once people get to know Obama's policies and find out more about McBush's policies I think you will see Florida become closer.

    •  The DNC Rules screw up (0+ / 0-)

      has hurt, even among the rank and file...once it's cleared up and the Florida delegation is seated (even if it's 1/2 votes as per the rules), things will start to improve. There will need to be a lot of fence-mending, though.

      "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

      by Alice in Florida on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:09:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I firmly believe that thetre are a lot of repub- (0+ / 0-)

    licans who genuinely like Obama's approach.  It will not be insignificant.  McCain is too transparent for them to place any faith in him.

    An idea is not responsible for who is carrying it. It stands or falls on its own merits.

    by don mikulecky on Wed May 21, 2008 at 12:42:24 PM PDT

  •  KOS - I will be out of town but there is... (0+ / 0-)

    2 rallies down here in FL and one Fundraiser, neither of which I can attend because I will be out of town, but I am so happy to see Obama is coming here.  He needs to do that and often during this election cycle, and if indeed, he will be the Nominee of our Party.

  •  re-do! (0+ / 0-)

    I think, given a chance, a lot of the Florida voters would change their vote.

    •  Delegates can change their vote (0+ / 0-)

      Even pledged delegates are not bound under the rules to vote for the nominee they were elected for...though I doubt it really matters because Hillary will drop out by mid-June (if not earlier) if she doesn't have the nomination (no way to see how she would) after the primaries are over and the remaining superdelegates commit.

      "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

      by Alice in Florida on Wed May 21, 2008 at 01:38:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  BS (0+ / 0-)

    I think it might be because of a few factors

    1. This is FLORIDA, remember that the DNC completely disenfranchised them and Hillary stood up for their voting rights.
    1. Obama is still working on trying to mend the fences and he's still got a long way to go.
  •  McCain hugs his running mate (0+ / 0-)

  •  The world as kos sees it (0+ / 0-)

    Either way, those people will ultimately have to choose between staying in Iraq for 100 years or getting out, and between a hard-right anti-choice Supreme Court or one that will, at the very least, hold its current ground (the most likely retirements on the court are currently two of its most liberal members).

    If people voted their self-interest we'd have had no Bush, Reagan Reagan Bush Bush. They don't always vote their self-interest. If they did, working class would ALWAYS vote for Dems.

    If you want Fl voters to feel Obama's legit, revote it. Obama and Hilary can make that happen. If not, he's going to have the same problem he'll have in the rest of the South vs McCain. Sadly.

  •  seemed pretty well loved in Tampa today (0+ / 0-)

    cleared a house of about twenty thousand with more standing outside...mmmhhhmm certified Obama-fied.

  •  Just one sentence sinks McCain in FLA (0+ / 0-)

    McCain will cut Medicare. McCain will make it more difficult for anyone living on a fixed income.
      McCain lives off of his rich wife and he doesn't care about America's older population.
      McCain will cut Medicare.

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