A recent poll shows Democratic candidate Betsy Markey leads incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave in the race for Colorado's 4th District Congressional seat.
The poll - commissioned by the Markey campaign - shows her leading Musgrave 43 percent to 36 percent, outside the 4.9% margin of error. The Denver Post has the story.
A Musgrave-commissioned poll released several weeks ago gave Musgrave a 47-42 lead, a dangerously low edge for an incumbent.
Any other year I'd say Markey has a long shot at best. Musgrave has all the advantages of incumbency, resides over a largely rural/Republican district, and has a $1M war chest that's three times Markey's total. But there have been a lot of strong indicators that the tide is flowing hard against the GOP this year. Saddled with an unpopular president, an unpopular war, a sputtering economy and a seemingly endless chain of scandals, the Republicans have been described as in a state of "panic" over their electoral prospects this fall. They've lost three out of three special elections in recent weeks, and most recently got trounced in a deep-red district of Mississippi. What's more, the National Republican Congressional Committee is very low on money this cycle, and won't be in any position to come to her rescue as it has in the past.
Musgrave, who has been a chronically threatened candidate with low re-election margins, may finally get tossed this time around.