On cnn.com yesterday morning, this headline caught my attention:
Study: Single parents cost taxpayers $112 billion
The article begins:
NEW YORK (AP) -- Divorce and out-of-wedlock childbearing cost U.S. taxpayers more than $112 billion a year, according to a study commissioned by four groups advocating more government action to bolster marriages.
Although substantially less than the $237 billion the U.S. treasury spent for interest on debt in 2007, and far less than the $173.6 billion the federal government spent in 2007 on the "global war on terror," (source) $112 billion a year is a lot of money. As a taxpayer and a single mother, I wanted to know more.
I fully expect to hear the conclusion of this study repeated by the media as if it were scientific fact. It clearly is not and if you'll join me below I'll tell you what I learned.
Before going any further, though, I should tell you that I’m a bit biased on this topic. I’ve been a Mom for almost 18 years and I’ve been divorced and single parenting for the last 14 years; my defensive tendencies are seriously aroused when the media reports that somehow my divorce is contributing to the problems in society.
From the Executive Summary:
This study provides the first rigorous estimate of the costs to U.S. taxpayers of high rates of divorce and unmarried childbearing both at the national and state levels.
It’s not a study – it’s a rigorous estimate.
More:
... in this study, we adopt the simplifying and extremely cautious assumption that all of the taxpayer costs of divorce and unmarried childbearing stem from the effects that family fragmentation has on poverty, a causal mechanism that is well-accepted and has been reasonably well-qualified in the literature.
The literature reviewed for this study, however, comes in large part from the sponsoring organizations, calling into question the "well-accepted" and "reasonably well-qualified" claims as to the "causal mechanism."
So what organizations sponsored this "research?"
Institute for American Values
... the Institute seeks to bring fresh knowledge to bear on the challenges facing the American family and civil society.
... the Institute seeks to bridge the gap between scholarship and policymaking, bringing new information and analyses to the attention of policy makers in government, opinion makers in the media, and decision makers in the private sector and in civil society.
Institute for Marriage and Public Policy
The Institute for Marriage and Public Policy is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to high quality research and public education on ways that law and public policy can strengthen marriage as a social institution. Working with top scholars, public officials, and community leaders, iMAPP brings the latest research to bear on important policy questions, seeking to promote thoughtful, informed discussion of marriage and family policy at all levels of American government, academia, and civil society.
Families Northwest
Families Northwest facilitates life-changing opportunities for couples and families by:
• Providing blueprints for healthy relationships
• Promoting the message of great marriages and families
• Equipping couples and families to be healthy and loving
• Supporting them at each stage of the marital journey
Thus, Families Northwest serves as a leveraging organization that inspires people through its positive message and connects people to the next step they need on their road to a healthy, loving family.
Georgia Family Council
Georgia Family Council (GFC) is a non-profit research and education organization committed to strengthening families and promoting civil society by shaping laws, influencing public opinion, and equipping marriage and family advocates.
GFC is working to reverse the trends of family fragmentation in Georgia by establishing community-based marriage and family initiatives across the state. GFC creates awareness of the profoundly harmful consequences of family breakdown and promotes policies and strategies for reversing family and community decline.
This "study" relies on a number of broad assumptions, essentially:
- Divorce and unwed childbearing cause family fragmentation
- Family fragmentation leads to poverty
- Poverty increases the need for social programs
But it's not that simple. The study goes on to say that single motherhood is far costlier to taxpayers than single fatherhood and that marriage (of single mothers) would reduce childhood poverty by 36.1%; marriage of single fathers would have no impact on childhood poverty.
That's quite a conclusion and the very precise 36.1% impact certainly gives the impression that this is a scientific study. Too bad it's not.
From the Endnotes:
Lack of fulltime work seems to be the biggest cause of poverty in America with family fragmentation being the second largest cause;
Many sources are cited for that bit of analysis and I have to say the first part of it is important enough to repeat: "Lack of fulltime work seems to be the biggest cause of poverty in America." That family fragmentation is the second largest cause of poverty, however, isn't proven here. The 36.1% impact on poverty referenced above, in fact, is based on an estimate:
Based on their estimate of the impact of marriage on the poverty status of female-headed households, Thomas and Sawhill find that the overall 1998 poverty rate would have been 24 percent lower if the proportion of cildren living in female-headed households in 1998 was the same as had existed in 1970 (see Thomas and Sawhill, "For Richer or for Poorer.")
Conclusion
The claim that unwed childbearing and divorce cost taxpayers $112 billon annually is a rigorous estimate based on primarily self-sourced information, unfounded assumptions, and simple estimates. It's not science. It is, instead, propaganda published by some groups who seek to defend their own (narrow) view of what makes a family.
Are there social costs associated with divorce? Certainly, just as there are social costs associated with children being raised in dysfunctional, hostile families with married and cohabitating parents. Are there social costs associated with unwed childbearing? It depends upon the mother, her education, her earning potential, her family support system, etc.
When you hear this junk science repeated, consider the sources and the background. And the stated objectives.
... groups advocating more government action to bolster marriages.
Government action to bolster marriages? That sounds like asking government to cross into religion. Then again, it goes well with abstinence only "education." Let's hope the Bush administration ends before bolstering marriages makes the national agenda.