Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/19-21. Likely voters. MoE 4% (12/10-12 results)
Wicker (R) 46 (47)
Musgrove (D) 42 (39)
That splits the previous poll's margin by half, well within the poll's margin of error. Not as delicious as the DSCC's poll released earlier this week showing an 8-point Musgrove lead, but still enough to suggest that this is now legitimately a top-tier race.
Full cross-tabs below.
Update: I guess that the question is a bit off. Ballots in Mississippi don't include partisan identification. So the question should be asked without mentioning that Musgrove is a Democrat and Wicker is a Republican. It's a little twist that likely helped us in the special election last week, and will help Musgrove this November. In fact, that might be a key difference between this poll and the DSCC poll.
Update II: Or maybe not. Nevermind. Chrississippi in the comments says they do carry partisan ID. The special election didn't, but that was apparently a special situation.
Update III: Original sentiment might be correct because this one WILL be a special election as well (Wicker was appointed to the seat to replace Trent Lott, who left for K Street like all good, corrupt Republicans). From the Cook Report (subscription required):
One factor that worked to [Travis] Childers's benefit [in his MS-01 special election victory] was that the candidates' party affiliations were not on the ballot because it was a special election. They won't be on the ballot in the Senate race either since it is a special election. This means that Republican-leaning voters can't simply rely on a party label to make their choice.
(From Singer at MyDD.)
I'll try to get concrete confirmation on the ballot status. If the ballot does not include partisan identification, my next edition of this poll will omit that information from the poll question.
Update IV: Rothenberg says no Party IDs as well:
Like the 1st District race, party labels will not appear on the ballot beside Wicker and Musgrove’s name, because the November race is technically a special election to fill Republican Trent Lott’s seat. That factor could help Musgrove win voters who are also planning to vote for Republican Sen. John McCain, who is winning the state 50%-41%, according to the poll. President Bush won Mississippi 59%-39% in 2004.
Update V: Yup, the DSCC's poll didn't include party ID.
The candidates in a special election for U.S. Senate this November are Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker – which one do you think you’ll support? (IF UNDECIDED) Well, which one do you lean toward at this time?
That could account for a large part of the difference between the two polls. We're looking EVEN BETTER in this race than this poll would indicate.
MISSISSIPPI POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008
The Research 2000 Mississippi Poll was conducted from May 19 through May 21, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 290 (49%)
Women 310 (51%)
Democrats 241 (40%)
Republicans 269 (45%)
Independents/Other 90 (15%)
18-29 103 (17%)
30-44 193 (32%)
45-59 191 (31%)
60+ 113 (19%)
White 390 (65%)
Black 210 (35%)
Delta/Jackson 216 (36%)
Northeast 149 (25%)
Southeast 235 (39%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ronnie Musgrove? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 34% 21% 12% 21%
MEN 10% 31% 25% 11% 30%
WOMEN 11% 33% 15% 9% 32%
DEMOCRATS 17% 43% 8% 3% 29%
REPUBLICANS 5% 22% 26% 17% 30%
INDEPENDENTS 8% 28% 20% 10% 34%
18-29 13% 35% 12% 6% 34%
30-44 9% 30% 19% 11% 31%
45-59 8% 29% 20% 11% 32%
60+ 8% 28% 20% 12% 32%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 16% 36% 15% 10% 23%
MEN 18% 38% 14% 9% 21%
WOMEN 14% 34% 16% 11% 25%
DEMOCRATS 7% 22% 24% 16% 31%
REPUBLICANS 24% 49% 7% 5% 15%
INDEPENDENTS 16% 35% 16% 11% 22%
18-29 12% 32% 19% 13% 24%
30-44 16% 37% 14% 9% 24%
45-59 18% 38% 14% 9% 21%
60+ 19% 38% 13% 8% 22%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Ronnie Musgrove, the Democrat, or Roger Wicker, the Republican?
WICKER MUSGROVE UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 42% 12%
MEN 50% 39% 11%
WOMEN 42% 45% 13%
DEMOCRATS 8% 82% 10%
REPUBLICANS 80% 6% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 43% 12%
WHITE 65% 26% 9%
BLACK 9% 73% 18%
18-29 41% 47% 12%
30-44 47% 41% 12%
45-59 47% 40% 13%
60+ 49% 39% 12%
DELTA/JACKSON 42% 48% 10%
NORTHEAST 50% 38% 12%
SOUTHEAST 48% 39% 13%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 42% 57% 1%
MEN 46% 53% 1%
WOMEN 38% 61% 1%
DEMOCRATS 6% 93% 1%
REPUBLICANS 75% 24% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 59% 1%
18-29 34% 65% 1%
30-44 43% 56% 1%
45-59 45% 54% 1%
60+ 46% 53% 1%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN OBAMA UNDECIDED
ALL 54% 39% 7%
MEN 58% 37% 5%
WOMEN 50% 41% 9%
DEMOCRATS 12% 81% 7%
REPUBLICANS 91% 4% 5%
OTHER 58% 31% 11%
WHITE 80% 18% 2%
BLACK 5% 79% 16%
18-29 48% 45% 7%
30-44 57% 38% 5%
45-59 53% 38% 9%
60+ 58% 35% 7%
DELTA/JACKSON 47% 47% 6%
NORTHEAST 59% 34% 7%
SOUTHEAST 58% 35% 7%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN CLINTON UNDECIDED
ALL 55% 36% 9%
MEN 60% 33% 7%
WOMEN 50% 39% 11%
DEMOCRATS 14% 75% 11%
REPUBLICANS 91% 5% 4%
OTHER 59% 25% 16%
WHITE 80% 18% 2%
BLACK 5% 79% 16%
18-29 48% 45% 7%
30-44 57% 38% 5%
45-59 53% 38% 9%
60+ 58% 35% 7%
DELTA/JACKSON 48% 42% 10%
NORTHEAST 60% 33% 7%
SOUTHEAST 59% 33% 8%