No option is even on the table that could damage Senator Obama's claim to the nomination.
Like I'm sure many of you were, I was somewhat concerned about what the Rules and Bylaw commitee might decide to do on May 31 and how that could potentially imperil Senator Obama's nomination.
Fear not. There is zero chance that what the RBC decides on May 31 will alter the fundamental dynamics of the nomination battle in any way whatsoever. This is not Senator Clinton's last best hope at all.
Why?
Let's review a recent May 15 New York Times article:
http://www.nytimes.com/...
On the committee agenda are two challenges to its stripping Florida and Michigan of their delegates. The challenges essentially ask that either all delegates be seated with half a vote or that just half the states’ delegates be seated.
A third challenge may come from Michigan, seeking to have approximately 75 percent of the delegates seated.
The co-chairmen of the panel, James Roosevelt Jr. and Alexis Herman, have agreed not to endorse anyone until all disputes have been settled, Mr. Roosevelt said, adding that in case of a tie on a motion, they would vote.
No one except Harold Ickes perhaps will be arguing for seating MI/FL as is with all 55 uncommitted delegates from Michigan to remain that way.
It should be noted that James Roosevelt is perceived to be a rules and regulations kind of guy. If he needs to break a tie, he's likely to vote on the side that wants to sanction MI/FL.
So, as I mentioned last week, let's again review the scenarios from demconwatch that would result if the RBC seats Michigan and Florida as half votes with or without full superdelegate votes
Scenario 3: FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers
Delegates Available: 4233.0 Nomination: 2117.0 PD majority: 1705.0
Obama Clinton Edwards Others(1) NYA(2) YTV(3) Total
Pledged Delegates(GP) 1660.5 1499.5 7 -- -- 86 3253
MI Pledged Delegates 0.0 36.5 -- 27.5 -- -- 64
FL Pledged Delegates 34.5 52.5 5.5 -- -- -- 92.5
Total Pledged Delegates 1695.0 1588.5 12.5 27.5 -- 86 3409.5
Needed for PD majority 10.0 116.5 -- -- -- -- --
Superdelegates (DCW) 315.5 279.5 -- 201 -- -- 796
FL & MI Superdelegates 5 7.5 -- 15 -- -- 27.5
Total Delegates 2015.5 1875.5 12.5 243.5 -- 86 4233.0
Delegates Lead 140.0 -- -- -- -- -- --
Delegates needed to win Nomination 101.5 241.5 -- -- -- Left 329.5
Scenario 4: FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote
Delegates Available: 4260.5 Nomination: 2130.5 PD majority: 1705.0
Obama Clinton Edwards Others(1) NYA(2) YTV(3) Total
Pledged Delegates(GP) 1660.5 1499.5 7 -- -- 86 3253
MI Pledged Delegates 0.0 36.5 -- 27.5 -- -- 64
FL Pledged Delegates 34.5 52.5 5.5 -- -- -- 92.5
Total Pledged Delegates 1695.0 1588.5 12.5 27.5 -- 86 3409.5
Needed for PD majority 10.0 116.5 -- -- -- -- --
Superdelegates (DCW) 315.5 279.5 -- 201 -- -- 796
FL & MI Superdelegates 10 15 -- 30 -- -- 55
Total Delegates 2020.5 1883.0 12.5 258.5 -- 86 4260.5
Delegates Lead 137.5 -- -- -- -- -- --
Delegates needed to win Nomination 110.0 247.5 -- -- -- Left 344.5
So, no matter what, Senator Obama is the nominee. The delegate math does not change at all regardless what happens to MI/FL since it's not even on the table to sit them in the most aggregious way.
I'm not sure why Senator Clinton pounded her fists about this in Florida last week since it changes nothing. With MI/FL off the table, I would bet Sen. Clinton suspends June 5.