I just read a great article by George Packer in the latest issue of the New Yorker. He discusses the rise and fall of the conservative movement, and its implications for John McCain's candidacy.
Here's a tantalizing quote from Pat Buchanan:
"Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket."
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I encourage everyone to read the full article, which is full of food for thought:
http://www.newyorker.com/...
Packer talks about the beginnings of the movement, under Goldwater and Nixon. It aimed at those Americans alienated from the 60's counterculture. We all remember Nixon's famous appeal to the "silent majority." Packer paints an evocative picture of Nixon in a strategy session, when he was organizing his presidential bid. He planned to divide the democratic party by appealing to the resentments of "ordinary" Americans. He planned on appealing to patriotism and ordinariness, but he was actually tapping into a profound anger, an anger that has always fueled the conservative movement.
Nixon claimed to speak on behalf of "the nonshouters, the nondemonstrators," but the cigar smokers in that South Carolina hotel were intoxicated with hate.
In fact, conservatism was a reactive movement--one based on a negative rather than a positive--and it remains so to this day. The movement has gotten most of its mileage (far more than should have been possible) from simply demonizing what it is not: immoral liberalism. "We're not crazy hippies--vote for us!"
Only one problem: when you're charge, as the Republicans have been for years, defining yourself as the opposition doesn't work so well. Packer sums up the rise and fall of the movement nicely:
The fact that the least conservative, least divisive Republican in the 2008 race is the last one standing—despite being despised by significant voices on the right—shows how little life is left in the movement that Goldwater began, Nixon brought into power, Ronald Reagan gave mass appeal, Newt Gingrich radicalized, Tom DeLay criminalized, and Bush allowed to break into pieces.
Of course this brings us now to McCain. The fact that Republicans nominated McCain at all shows they know they are in trouble. This is the opposite of Karl Rove's strategy of winning elections by motivating the base.
Packer says that McCain, because of his "maverick" status, might be the only Republican with a snowball's chance in hell of winning in November. Packer is more positive about McCain's chances than I am (perhaps it's because he just spent a lot of time in Kentucky).
McCain is in an awkward place. He is forced to walk a line between appealing to the independents who have loved him in the past, and placating what remains of the conservative base. How successful this dance will be depends on how closely voters are paying attention---and, of course, this is where we come in.