Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/20-21. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Lummis (R) 41
Trauner (D) 44
This is for the open at-large Wyoming seat Gary Trauner almost captured in 2006 (he came up 1,000 votes short).
I've also got presidential numbers:
McCain (R) 53
Obama (D) 40
This is a state Kerry lost 69-29. If Obama can keep it within 20 points, it makes Trauner's job that much easier.
Full cross-tabs below the fold.
On the web:
Gary Trauner for Congress
Blue Majority ActBlue page
WYOMING POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008
The Research 2000 Wyoming Poll was conducted from May 20 through May 21, 2008. A total of 500 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 244 (49%)
Women 256 (51%)
Democrats 120 (24%)
Republicans 239 (48%)
Independents/Other 141 (28%)
18-29 89 (18%)
30-44 150 (30%)
45-59 166 (33%)
60+ 95 (19%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Trauner? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 14% 38% 19% 12% 17%
MEN 12% 36% 23% 14% 15%
WOMEN 16% 40% 15% 10% 19%
DEMOCRATS 26% 55% 6% 3% 10%
REPUBLICANS 7% 27% 30% 19% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 16% 43% 12% 8% 21%
18-29 15% 39% 18% 10% 18%
30-44 15% 38% 18% 11% 18%
45-59 13% 37% 20% 14% 16%
60+ 14% 38% 20% 13% 15%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Lummis? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 12% 37% 18% 11% 22%
MEN 13% 38% 18% 10% 21%
WOMEN 11% 36% 18% 12% 23%
DEMOCRATS 5% 22% 38% 25% 10%
REPUBLICANS 17% 47% 6% 4% 26%
INDEPENDENTS 9% 33% 22% 10% 26%
18-29 10% 35% 19% 12% 24%
30-44 11% 37% 19% 11% 22%
45-59 14% 38% 17% 11% 20%
60+ 13% 38% 17% 10% 22%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Gary Trauner, the Democrat, or Cynthia Lummis, the Republican?
TRAUNER LUMMIS UNDECIDED
ALL 44% 41% 15%
MEN 41% 45% 14%
WOMEN 47% 37% 16%
DEMOCRATS 85% 11% 4%
REPUBLICANS 15% 62% 23%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 32% 10%
18-29 46% 39% 15%
30-44 45% 40% 15%
45-59 43% 42% 15%
60+ 43% 43% 14%
NORTH 41% 45% 14%
SOUTH 47% 37% 16%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE
ALL 47% 53%
MEN 51% 49%
WOMEN 43% 57%
DEMOCRATS 8% 92%
REPUBLICANS 72% 28%
INDEPENDENTS 38% 62%
18-29 44% 56%
30-44 46% 54%
45-59 49% 51%
60+ 49% 51%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN OBAMA UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 40% 7%
MEN 58% 37% 5%
WOMEN 48% 43% 9%
DEMOCRATS 7% 88% 5%
REPUBLICANS 81% 11% 8%
OTHER 44% 48% 8%
18-29 49% 44% 7%
30-44 53% 39% 8%
45-59 55% 38% 7%
60+ 56% 38% 6%
NORTH 57% 37% 6%
SOUTH 48% 44% 8%