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I include some pictures of the island of Puerto Rico broken down by municipalities and districts, so you get a sense of what it looks like.

So here is the island of Puerto Rico broken down into municipalities and electoral districts:

Puerto Rico

Let's go district by district:

San Juan:

San Juan

Bayamon:

Bayamon

These are solid Hillary districts.  Watch for larger than expected turnout in San Juan and Bayamon for a landslide Hillary victory.

Arecibo:

Arecibo

Given strong NPP support in Arecibo, one would expect Hillary to do well.  But pro-Clinton NPP leaders have conceded that they are not likely to win here.  Obama district.

Mayaguez:

Mayaguez

Guayama:

Guayama

Carolina:

Carolina

Mayaguez, Carolina and Guayama are definitely Obama territories.  Watch for larger than expected turnouts in these districts for a close election.

Ponce:

Ponce

The Clinton folks expect to do really well in Ponce, but that is not clear.  The Ponce Mayor has shown hesitancy in his support for either candidate, while the two Mayoral candidates are with Clinton.  The pro-Clinton NPP machine is strong here.  If Obama does well here, he could even win.

Humacao:

Humacao

Both the pro-Clinton and pro-Obama forces admit that Humacao is a toss up.  But the pro-Obama forces seem to be more confident about getting this district.

So if you are counting, this means:

Clinton:

  • San Juan
  • Bayamon
  • Ponce

Obama:

  • Carolina
  • Guayama
  • Mayaguez
  • Arecibo

Toss up:

  • Humacao

Since districts are approximately equal in terms of population, the question is a GOTV effort.  If Hillary is strong on GOTV in her areas, and Obama is weak in his, Hillary should win in a landslide.  If turnout is normal, but Hillary does better than expected in Arecibo and Humacao, again it should be a landslide.  But if Obama does better than expected in the Clinton strongholds and takes Humacao, expect a close contested election.  (Note:  The assumption here is that the metropolitan or urban vote -- which tends to be pro-Hillary -- will be strong while the rural vote will be weak.)

The breakdown of the 63 delegate votes is as follows:

  • 36 apportioned by district via a proportional system, open primary
  • 12 at large (i.e., for the island as a whole based on total popular vote)
  • 7 Unpledged PLEOs (i.e, superdelegates)
  • 1 Unpledged add-on (i.e., selected by Puerto Rico Democratic Party General Assembly)
  • 7 Pledged PLEOs (i.e., selected by Puerto Rico Democratic Party General Assembly on June 21 -- these are like super duper delegates!)

Polling hours will be from 8 am to 3 pm on a Sunday, which suggests that turnout may not be high.  Approximately 1/2 of the Puerto Rican population is Catholic, the other half Evangelical Protestant.  They tend to be churchgoers and use Sunday as a family day.

Of the superdelegates, Hillary has 4, Obama 2, and 2 are uncommitted.  

Originally posted to YoSoyBoricua on Sat May 31, 2008 at 03:14 PM PDT.

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