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I decided to take a crack at predicting the district-by-district results in Puerto Rico's presidential primary. While I do take into account the mayoral endorsements that I could find, I based my prediction largely on demographics. One of the two polls of the commonwealth suggests that college-educated or higher-income Puerto Ricans are more likely to support Obama than non-college educated or lower income voters.

Disclaimer: I could be totally wrong. All the numbers below the fold.

Senate District 1 - San Juan: The first district takes in all of San Juan and a portion of (relatively) wealthy Guyanabo. It has the second-highest black population at 15.3%, the highest percentage of students (10.8%), and the highest percentage of college graduates (28.7%) and individuals with graduate or professional degrees (10.3%). It also has the highest percentage of households with median income over $75,000 (9.1%). It is also the only district with six delegates, and Obama will easily win the 25% he needs to get two of them. If he can break 43.75%, he will split the delegates 3-3.

Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 3 delegates

Senate District 2 - Bayamon: This district has the highest median household income ($20,139) and the lowest poverty levels in Puerto Rico. Education levels, while not as high as in the San Juan district, are still well above average. The black population (12.2%) is about average for the commonwealth. Five delegates are at stake here, and Obama should get two of them. However, Clinton should carry the district and the third delegate.

Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 2 delegates

Senate District 3 - Arecibo: The is district has the lowest black population in Puerto Rico (6.2%), and the education and income levels are substantially lower than the commonwealth average. Obama does have the endorsement of two mayors in the district, in Arecibo and Dorado. The district has four delegates, and Obama need only reach the 15% viability threshold to claim one of them. He should do that comfortably, but he will have significantly more difficulty reaching the 37.5% needed for a 2-2 split.

Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 1 delegate

Senate District 4 - Mayaguez: High poverty, low education levels and a small black population (6.7%) give Clinton the advantage in this district. Clinton campaigned heavily in the district duing her last visit to the island. There are four delegates here, and she will take three of them.

Clinton: 3 delegates
obama: 1 delegate

Senate District 5 - Ponce: The largest district in the commonwealth looks like it may be Obama's worst. With a median household income of $11,662, it is the poorest in the commonwealth, and only 6.3% of residents identify as black. The Mayor of Ponce has endorsed Clinton, although he attended a rally in the city with Bill Richardson. Both of the candidates to replace him also support Clinton. Obama should still do well enough to secure one of the district's four delegates

Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 1 delegate

Senate District 6 - Guayama: This district, located on the southern coast of the island, is home to the largest share of residents who speak no English (44.0%). Less than 14% of residents have at least a bachelor's degree, which is also the lowest on the island. The district is not as poor as the neighboring 5th or even the 4th, and it is home to a larger black population (9.0%). This four-delegate district should vote heavily enough for Clinton for her to win 3 of its 4 delegates.

Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 1 delegate

Senate District 7 - Humacao:
The 7th district is demographically similar to the island as a whole. Income levels in the district are slightly below average for the island, and the district's black population is slightly above average (11.7%). Obama should benefit from mayoral endorsments in Humacao, Caguas, and Yabucoa, which together should cast about half of the vote in this district. Clinton needs to win by 25% to carry 3 of the 4 delegates here.

Clinton: 2 delegates
Obama: 2 delegates

Senate District 8 - Carolina: This is the most heavily black district in Puerto Rico (21%), and it has the highest proportion of residents who either speak English at home or speak English "very well" (33%). Income and education levels are above average. Obama has mayoral endorsements in Loiza and Carolina, as well as the endorsement of a community organization on the island of Vieques. This is a five-delegate district, so Obama should be able to break the 30% threshold required to win 2 delegates. I think he'll actually just break the 50% mark and take three of five delegates here.

Obama: 3 delegates
Clinton: 2 delegates

At Large & PLEO: The winner of the commonwealth will take at least 10 of the 19 unpledged delegates. The thresholds for additional delegates are 54.2%, 62.5%, 64.3%, 70.8%, 78.6%, and 79.2%. I predict a result around 60-40, and thus the following split:

Clinton: 7 at-large delegates, 4 pledged PLEO delegates
Obama: 5 at-large delegates, 3 pledged PLEO delegates

That gives us a final delegate split of:
Clinton: 33 delegates
Obama: 22 delegates

Originally posted to Scott in NJ on Sat May 31, 2008 at 09:19 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  That was my prediction too n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Scott in NJ

    An idea is not responsible for who is carrying it. It stands or falls on its own merits.

    by don mikulecky on Sat May 31, 2008 at 09:26:44 PM PDT

  •  According to ycompanys (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Scott in NJ, aj2k, taiping1

    who lives in PR, Obama should get 2-2 splits in many of these districts.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    The Clintons are corrupt selfish race baiting zero character scumbags. I'd rather be run over by a tractor-trailer than willfully vote for any Clinton again.

    by IhateBush on Sat May 31, 2008 at 09:34:50 PM PDT

  •  I wonder what the effect will be ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Scott in NJ

    ... of news coverage this evening of Clinton's more vocal supporters at the RBC today?

  •  a couple of questions (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Scott in NJ, Tanya

    Mayaguez has a large campus of UPR;  might he do better there because of that?

    You list the black population of each district.  The racial dynamics of PR are different than they are in the mainland of the US.  Are you assuming that Obama will do as well with Puerto Rican 'blacks' as he has done with AAs in the mainland?  

    Non, je ne regrette rien

    by alexnovo on Sat May 31, 2008 at 09:38:04 PM PDT

  •  Turnout (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Scott in NJ, Tanya

    will be key in PR.  As has been reported in other diaries,  PR turnout is driven in large part by the local party machines.  I think the mayoral endorsements (and how strong they will actively work on GOTV) will make the difference in on the Island.  In truth I would not be surprised if turnout is very low and Obama does better than you indicate.  

    Non, je ne regrette rien

    by alexnovo on Sat May 31, 2008 at 09:42:58 PM PDT

    •  interesting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      alexnovo

      the poll also suggested that lower turnout would benefit Clinton.

      I considered mayoral endorsements in making my predictions, but I have very limited list of endorsements. For Obama: Anasco, Arecibo, Caguas, Carolina, Dorado, Humacao, Yabucoa. For Clinton: Ponce. For neither: Bayamon, Fajardo, Guaynabo, San Juan. Everything else, I have no idea.

      Blue Jersey. All the news that slips from print.

      by Scott in NJ on Sat May 31, 2008 at 09:47:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have a close friend (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Scott in NJ

        who is a press aid to the mayor of Carolina and I understand that they are supporting Obama - but not the same GOTV effort as they would do in a local election.

        I say that a low turnout will benefit Obama for a couple of reasons.  I find that most of my contacts on the Island say that most people 'support' Clinton but are not all that strong in their support, but Obama supporters are stronger for him (even if fewer in number)

        Non, je ne regrette rien

        by alexnovo on Sat May 31, 2008 at 09:51:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The question is this (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          alexnovo

          Do many of these soft Clinton supporters know that it is just about over?

          The Clintons are corrupt selfish race baiting zero character scumbags. I'd rather be run over by a tractor-trailer than willfully vote for any Clinton again.

          by IhateBush on Sat May 31, 2008 at 10:04:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes and no (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Scott in NJ

            The Clintons have spent a lot of time on the Island and they have attracted some excitement - I assume that her time there has made them feel relevant in a way they have not felt before - so that would work in her favor.  Other than that, there are news reports which say the same things we get - but that hasn't convinced many people in the mainland that the race is over - just look at HRC supporters today at the RBC meeting.

            All of that having been said - I think her soft support comes from name recognition and the fact that Obama is not well known.  The support is also soft because many people on the Island - as they do not get to vote in November - do not really get as involved in mainland races as they do in Island politics.  I suspect that many of them will not turnout in as high of numbers as the Obama supporters on the Island.

            Non, je ne regrette rien

            by alexnovo on Sat May 31, 2008 at 10:10:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Another thing that (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Scott in NJ, Tanya, sable

    I am curious about.  HRC is bring a large number of NY pols (of PR ancestry) to campaign for her over this weekend (including my ex brother in law a NY state legislator).  My contacts on the Island say this may backfire as many locals resent New York Puerto Ricans coming and telling them how to vote.  I cannot say that my contacts are representative but it will be interesting to watch.

    Non, je ne regrette rien

    by alexnovo on Sat May 31, 2008 at 10:15:33 PM PDT

    •  It depends on where they are used... (0+ / 0-)

      It used to be that there was a hard and cut rule that there were Puerto Ricans and then so-called "Nuyoricans."  But today's Puerto Rican is likely to live in Puerto Rico, then the US, then Puerto Rico again, and back again.  Areas like Toa Baja (esp Levittown) are filled with mainland Puerto Ricans.  So it would be a smart strategy to use such surrogates in these areas.

  •  Your predictions (0+ / 0-)

    First of all, let me congratulate you on a very exceptional analysis.  Are you Puerto Rican?  It's an excellent assessment of the island in terms of demographics.  You should check my diary, which shows the districts visually:

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    As others have mentioned, you need to take into account the party machines (even though legally they cannot be used).  

    I'll follow your diary one by one in terms of party machinery.  I don't buy the polls on the income/education splits:

    Senate District 1 - San Juan: The first district takes in all of San Juan and a portion of (relatively) wealthy Guaynabo. It has the second-highest black population at 15.3%, the highest percentage of students (10.8%), and the highest percentage of college graduates (28.7%) and individuals with graduate or professional degrees (10.3%). It also has the highest percentage of households with median income over $75,000 (9.1%). It is also the only district with six delegates, and Obama will easily win the 25% he needs to get two of them. If he can break 43.75%, he will split the delegates 3-3.

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 3 delegates

    Higher income, higher educated Puerto Ricans tend to support the NPP.  The same applies for Black Puerto Ricans in this area.  Also, Guaynabo and San Juan are mostly pro-statehood.  I tend to go 4-2 for Clinton on this one.

    Senate District 2 - Bayamon: This district has the highest median household income ($20,139) and the lowest poverty levels in Puerto Rico. Education levels, while not as high as in the San Juan district, are still well above average. The black population (12.2%) is about average for the commonwealth. Five delegates are at stake here, and Obama should get two of them. However, Clinton should carry the district and the third delegate.

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 2 delegates

    This is the most pro-statehood district on the island.  I tend to go 4-1 for Clinton on this one.

    Senate District 3 - Arecibo: The is district has the lowest black population in Puerto Rico (6.2%), and the education and income levels are substantially lower than the commonwealth average. Obama does have the endorsement of two mayors in the district, in Arecibo and Dorado. The district has four delegates, and Obama need only reach the 15% viability threshold to claim one of them. He should do that comfortably, but he will have significantly more difficulty reaching the 37.5% needed for a 2-2 split.

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 1 delegate

    I don't agree here because the pro-commonwealth element will become important.  Lower income voters will tend to support Obama.  This is either 2-2 or 3-1 for Obama.

    Senate District 4 - Mayaguez: High poverty, low education levels and a small black population (6.7%) give Clinton the advantage in this district. Clinton campaigned heavily in the district duing her last visit to the island. There are four delegates here, and she will take three of them.

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    obama: 1 delegate

    The reason why Clinton campaigned so heavily here is because she is weak in Mayaguez.  Low income voters will tend to support Obama.  This should be for Obama by 3-1.

    Senate District 5 - Ponce: The largest district in the commonwealth looks like it may be Obama's worst. With a median household income of $11,662, it is the poorest in the commonwealth, and only 6.3% of residents identify as black. The Mayor of Ponce has endorsed Clinton, although he attended a rally in the city with Bill Richardson. Both of the candidates to replace him also support Clinton. Obama should still do well enough to secure one of the district's four delegates

    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 1 delegate

    Statehooders are aligned with your assessment on this one.  The commonwealthers disagree.  I go with the statehooders on this one.

    Senate District 6 - Guayama: This district, located on the southern coast of the island, is home to the largest share of residents who speak no English (44.0%). Less than 14% of residents have at least a bachelor's degree, which is also the lowest on the island. The district is not as poor as the neighboring 5th or even the 4th, and it is home to a larger black population (9.0%). This four-delegate district should vote heavily enough for Clinton for her to win 3 of its 4 delegates.
    Clinton: 3 delegates
    Obama: 1 delegate

    It's the opposite.  This is strong pro-commonwealth territory.  Low income voters who speak only Spanish will tend to support Obama.  Obama should take this 3 to 1.

    Senate District 7 - Humacao:
    The 7th district is demographically similar to the island as a whole. Income levels in the district are slightly below average for the island, and the district's black population is slightly above average (11.7%). Obama should benefit from mayoral endorsments in Humacao, Caguas, and Yabucoa, which together should cast about half of the vote in this district. Clinton needs to win by 25% to carry 3 of the 4 delegates here.

    Clinton: 2 delegates
    Obama: 2 delegates

    This is absolutely on the money.  Both sides tell me this is a toss up.

    Senate District 8 - Carolina: This is the most heavily black district in Puerto Rico (21%), and it has the highest proportion of residents who either speak English at home or speak English "very well" (33%). Income and education levels are above average. Obama has mayoral endorsements in Loiza and Carolina, as well as the endorsement of a community organization on the island of Vieques. This is a five-delegate district, so Obama should be able to break the 30% threshold required to win 2 delegates. I think he'll actually just break the 50% mark and take three of five delegates here.

    Obama: 3 delegates
    Clinton: 2 delegates

    The pro-commonwealth PDP leaders agree with you.  The newest info I got from the pro-statehood NPP disagrees with you.  I tend to agree with the commonwealthers on this one.

    At Large & PLEO: The winner of the commonwealth will take at least 10 of the 19 unpledged delegates. The thresholds for additional delegates are 54.2%, 62.5%, 64.3%, 70.8%, 78.6%, and 79.2%. I predict a result around 60-40, and thus the following split:

    Clinton: 7 at-large delegates, 4 pledged PLEO delegates
    Obama: 5 at-large delegates, 3 pledged PLEO delegates

    I agree with this.

    That gives us a final delegate split of:
    Clinton: 33 delegates
    Obama: 22 delegates

    So my district count is the following:

    Clinton:  18
    Obama:  18

    I think Clinton wins the commonwealth by +4 to 5 pts.  So I agree with your assessment there:

    Clinton:  18+7=25
    Obama:  18+5+23

    Then you have to add the superdelegates, which have committed to Clinton 4 to 2 with one uncommitted. Let's assume that person goes with the winner. So that gives you:

    Clinton 30
    Obama 25

    The final question is the 1 Unpledged add-on and the 7 Pledged PLEOs (i.e., selected by Puerto Rico Democratic Party General Assembly on June 21 -- these are like super duper delegates!).  Assuming they go with the island winner, the total would be:

    Clinton 38
    Obama 25

    Assuming they go with Obama, then you have a reversal:

    Clinton 30
    Obama 33

    And if they split equally:

    Clinton 34
    Obama 29

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