Meteor Blades' overnite open thread included a poll asking whether the readers believed Osama Bin Laden/Usama Bin Ladin was dead or alive. As of this writing, astonishingly, only 16% believed him to be dead!!! I hope at least a few will follow me into the great unknown below as I attempt to put this issue into a truly "reality-based" light.
I not only realise that "night owls and early birds" don't necessarily constitute a statistically valid sample of the DKos community, I know that for a fact; statistics was my college major - but that's not important right now. It doesn't take a stat major to make a solid case that the results of MB's poll are so bizarre they'd likely make the FDL crowd blush.
OBL is, most likely, living in a cave near the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. No one knows for sure, of course, but one thing IS for certain: he's NOT 'secretly hiding' ANYWHERE with medical facilities on the order of Johns Hopkins, Walter Reed, the Mayo Clinic, or, for that matter, King-Harbor in LA. It's a pretty safe bet he isn't getting the kind of care the 'average' US dialysis patient would be getting. It has been claimed that he was in the Whereisitstan Waziristan region of Pakistan in 2005, but, again, no one knows for sure.
While dialysis patient survival rates appear to vary substantially based on race, demographics, and co-morbids (amoung other things), at least one recent paper suggests the following:
Once renal replacement therapy is initiated, the range of the expected remaining life span in the United States Renal Data System report was 7 to 11 years (varies with race) for dialysis patients aged 40 to 44, and 4 to 6 years for those 60 to 64 years of age. These values in older patients are only slightly better than those in patients with lung cancer and are much worse than the general population (which is 30 to 40 years for those aged 40 to 44, and 15 to 23 years for individuals aged 60 to 64).
OBL was born on March 10, 1957; he's 51 - IF he's still alive. The numbers above would indicate that his life expectancy since the beginning of dialysis would be on the order of 6-7 years, on average, were he being treated in the US - NOT in a cave in Tora Bora! And he's supposedly been on dialysis since AT LEAST Sept. 2001 (and likely longer). While he may be getting excellent care by the standards of Pakistani cave-dwellers, I'd trade that situation for King-Harbor in a NY minute w/o a 2nd thought.
The link above states the number one killer of dialysis patients is cardiovascular disease.
Infections, which are the second most common cause of death, are usually due to common organisms (such as Staphylococcus aureus) and are frequently related to the hemodialysis vascular access.
Withdrawal from dialysis accounts for approximately 15 to 25 percent of patient deaths.
We've NEVER seen a video of him when he appeared truly healthy - or even close. Given that he's living life on-the-run, "withdrawal from dialysis" is a distinct possibility, at least at times, for some periods. Further, he has a need for extremely sanitary care and access to limited, IF ANY, truly modern medical care. To suggest that he's lived as long as the 'average' US dialysis patient with his demographics is, at best, generous. Combined with the FACT that there have been ZERO reasonably well-vetted sightings of him of ANY sort for years, and his obvious need in the direct aftermath of 9/11 to thumb his nose at the US in the most highly visible way possible, the only "reality-based" ASSUMPTION that makes ANY sense, is too ASSUME the man died years ago. There is always the chance he's beat the odds - but an 84% chance? NFW!
Please excuse the rough edges on this diary; it was hastily put together while sleep deprived (again...). I started a new job last week (swing shift), and have to be on the production line at 7AM, so baby-sitting this isn't an option. I'll do what I can to reply to any comments later this afternoon.