Today's Survey USA poll is for the great state of Minnesota, where Obama leads McCain 47% to 42%. Minnesota was fairly close in 2004 - Kerry got 51% of the vote to Bush's 48%. That's not as close as some other states, but it's close enough that it probably should be considered competitive this time around.
From the crosstabs, we see a similar situation to Wisconsin. Obama doesn't get as big a percentage of Democrats as McCain does of Republicans, but beats him convincingly among independents, 50% to 36%, giving him an overall lead.
This sample also leans quite Democratic. It's 41% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 22% independents. Exit polls in 2004 put the state's electorate at 38% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 27% independents. If the sample is accurate, it marks a significant shift in the state's political climate.
On the VP front, SUSA found that picking Pawlenty helps him quite a bit in the state, with one notable exception - that ticket still loses to Obama/Edwards! Very interesting.
These polls are also telling me that if Obama can consolidate the Democratic base behind him, he'll be in very good shape for November. Now, given the length and acrimony of the primary campaign, that may be a big "if," but if he can bring his percentages with Democrats up to the same level as McCain's percentages with Republicans, he'll be over 50% in many of these states that have been polled recently. A strong position heading into the fall campaign.
And for whatever it's worth, Edwards not only increases Obama's numbers among Democrats, but independents as well.
The poll is here.