As promised, this is my early look at the political outlook this fall for Oregon. I discuss statewide races, Congressional Races, potential ballot initiatives and state legislative races, all below the jump.
Basic Information:
Race-Rating Key:
Tossup-Less than 3% margin.
Lean-3 to 10% margin.
Likely-11 to 20% margin.
Safe-Over 20% margin.
When discussing a race I list the incumbent, or failing that the incumbent party, first.
Candidates are indicated by the following symbols:
Inc-Incumbent.
Int-Interim Incumbent, someone who was appointed to fill out a term. Oregon law allows the political party that controls a seat to basically appoint a replacement in case of resignation and so it is not uncommon for state legislators to resign so their successor can run as an incumbent. Appointments are valid until the start of the next legislative session in a year following a general election. Therefore, those appointees who have two years left on their term following an election must face a special election for those two years. For example, Brad Avakian (D) resigned his State Senate seat and was replaced by Suzanne Bonamici (also D). Since Avakian was not up for re-election until 2010, Bonamici will face a special election for the remaining two years of Avakian's term this fall.
Statewide Races:
US President
Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).
Summary: If anyone doubts that Oregon is Obama country just look at the 75,000 who showed up to see Obama at a rally in Portland a few weeks ago. Obama is really the perfect candidate for Oregon Ds as he is a new progressive of the type we really like.
Outlook: Leans to Likely Obama.
US Senate
Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).
Summary: After surviving a much tougher than expected fight for the Democratic nod, Merkley is frankly low on cash. He has a real chance of winning this seat and if Smith were ever going to go down this would be the year. However, for now, Smith gets a slight edge due to his cash advantage.
Outlook: Leans Smith.
Labor Commissioner (2-year interim):
Brad Avakian (typically nonpartisan but he's a D-int.) is unopposed.
Attorney General:
John Kroger (D) is unopposed.
State Treasurer:
Candidates: Ben Westlund (D) vs. Allen Alley (R).
Summary: Alley has been doing a decent job of raising cash for this race but Westlund is simply a much better candidate/opponent. An interesting note, Alley used to be a D and Westlund used to be an R.
Outlook: Likely Westlund.
Secretary of State
Candidates: Kate Brown (D) vs. Rick Dancer (R).
Summary: Brown is going to kick Dancer's ass, period. Dancer is so out of it that in an early interview on this race, with R talk show host Lars Larson, he seemed unaware of much of what the Secretary of State does.
Outlook: Likely to Safe Brown.
Ballot Measures:
The following are the ballot measures that have already qualified for the November ballot. They will not be assigned numbers until the signature verification for all initiatives is completed in August. Therefore, they are designated by their petition number for now.
Legislative Referrals:
405-Language fix on elections qualifications-Safe Yes.
406-Slight modification to state redistricting laws-Safe yes.
407-Double Majority Repeal-Likely Yes-This will draw a fair amount of opposition but in the end I think it will pass without a problem.
408-The is the alternative to the Mannix property crimes bill-Leans to Likely Yes-I think it will likely pass since, when compared to Mannix's draconian bill, it is a good one.
"Citizen Referrals":
21-This is a weird initiative removing licensing requirements for small property modifications. I don't know what to make of it so-Tossup.
25-Anti-government, and racketeering expert Bill Sizemore, tries once again to ban public employee unions and will likely fail again-Leans to Likely no.
40-This is Mannix's property crimes initiative-Leans to Likely no-See above for my explanation.
Congressional Races:
District 1 (Wu-D)-Likely to Safe Wu.
District 2 (Walden-R)-Likely to Safe Walden.
District 3 (Blumenauer-D)-Safe Blumenauer.
District 4 (DeFazio-D) is unopposed.
District 5
Candidates: State Sen. Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman (and hypocrite) Mike Erickson (R).
Summary: As has been widely chronicled here, the story of how this went from a dead tossup to a race in which Schrader has the clear edge is one for the books. Don't count Erickson out though, he has too much $ to ignore him.
Outlook: Leans Schrader.
State Legislature:
Numbers below are district numbers. State Senate districts each comprise two consecutively numbered State House districts. For example, State Senate District 1 is comprised of State House Districts 1 and 2.
Oregon Senate:
In brief:
Current Composition: 18 D, 11 R, 1 I.
Projected Composition: 18 D, 12 R.
The following races are considered safe:
1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).
2 (Central Point)-Atkinson (R).
5 (Coos Bay)-Verger (D), this was one of the most competitive races four years ago and the Rs couldn't even find a candidate this time.
17 (2-year interim) (NW Portland/Beaverton)-Bonamici (D).
18 (SW Portland/Tigard)-Burdick (D).
21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).
22 (Portland)-Carter (D).
23 (Portland)-Dingfelder (D).
25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-Another close race in 2004 that the Rs failed to draft a candidate to run in.
28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).
29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).
30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).
The following races are potentially competitive:
9 (Stayton)
Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).
Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs. Girod still has the edge though.
Outlook: Leans to Likely Girod.
12 (McMinnville)
Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).
Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat. The Ds best chance is to capitalize on Boquist's lack of interest but it will be an uphill battle.
Outlook: Leans to Likely Boquist.
14 (West Slope/Beaverton-My district!)
Candidates: Mark Hass (D-int) vs. Lisa Michaels (R).
Summary: In 2000 this seat was the site of the most expensive legislative campaign in OR history to that point as Ryan Deckert (D) unseated Eileen Qutub (R). My how things change as the popular Hass looks ready to cruise here.
Outlook: Likely Hass.
27 (Bend)
Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).
Summary: This is Ben Westlund's seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it. That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now than two months ago.
Outlook: Leans Telfer.
Oregon House:
In brief:
Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.
Projected Composition: 32 D, 23 R, 5 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.
The following seats are rated either safe or likely:
1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).
2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).
3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).
4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).
5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).
8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).
10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn't find an opponent for her.
11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).
12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).
13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).
14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).
16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).
21 (Salem)-Clem (D).
25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).
27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).
28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).
31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).
32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).
33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).
34 (Beaverton)-This is Bonamici's district, which she vacated to become a State Senator. Whichever D gets appointed here should win easily so-TBD (D).
36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).
40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).
41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).
42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).
43 (Portland)-Shields (D).
44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).
45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).
46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).
47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).
48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).
53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).
55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).
56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).
57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).
58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).
60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).
The following seats are competitive:
6 (Medford)
Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).
Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win. My guess is that he won't be caught napping this time, though.
Outlook: Leans Esquivel.
7 (Roseburg)
Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).
Summary: While looking through the results from the primaries I noticed that more Ds voted for this seat than did for Hanna. Granted it was a contested primary on the D side and this is a deep red district but still something to keep an eye on.
Outlook: Leans Hanna.
9 (Coos Bay)
Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).
Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one. Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.
Outlook: Leans Roblan.
15 (Albany)
Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).
Summary: Another normally solid R district that is competitive this year. Olson has the edge but he can be beaten.
Outlook: Leans Olson.
17 (Scio)
Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).
Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset. Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it'll be an uphill battle.
Outlook: Leans Sprenger.
18 (Silverton)
Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D).
Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here. This is clearly his best chance yet. Still, it'll be uphill for him.
Outlook: Leans Gilliam.
19 (Salem)
Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).
Summary: Cameron is unfortunately both a good fit and a good candidate for this district. Still, it is flippable given the right circumstances.
Outlook: Leans Cameron.
20 (Independence/Monmouth)
Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).
Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy. She's in for fight for her life this time due much more to the state party than to anything she's done.
Outlook: Tossup.
22 (Woodburn)
Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).
Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn. However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily.
Outlook: Leans Komp.
23 (Dallas)
Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).
Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books. That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.
Outlook: Leans Thompson.
24 (McMinnville)
Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).
Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006. Wiedner starts with an edge but it is not a huge one.
Outlook: Leans Wiedner.
26 (Wilsonville)
Candidates: Matt Wingard (R) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).
Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap. In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before. Therefore, this normally R district is up for grabs.
Outlook: Tossup.
29 (Hillsboro)
Candidates: Chuck Riley (D-inc.) vs. Jeff Duyck (R) and Terry Rilling (R turned I).
Summary: Rilling's decision to run as an I likely will give Riley an easy win. Not that he wouldn't have won anyways.
Outlook: Leans Riley.
30 (Hillsboro)
Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Meyer (R).
Summary: This is listed primarily because Hillsboro has historically been a R-leaning area. Edwards is proof that this has changed and he should win again here.
Outlook: Leans Edwards.
35 (Tigard)
Candidates: Larry Galizio (D-inc.) vs. Tony Marino (R).
Summary: Tony Marino got statewide attention recently when he revealed all his skeletons in an open letter to the press. Galizio, who will outwork almost anyone campaigning, should win his easiest win yet.
Outlook: Leans Galizio.
37 (West Linn)
Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).
Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area. Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district.
Outlook: Tossup.
38 (Lake Oswego)
Candidates: Chris Garrett (D) vs. Steve Griffith (R).
Summary: If Griffith were a D, which he practically is in many ways, this district would be his. But he's not, so he should lose here.
Outlook: Leans Garrett.
39 (Canby)
Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).
Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call.
Outlook: Tossup.
49 (Gresham)
Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).
Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district. With her out of the picture, this should be a D pickup.
Outlook: Leans Kahl.
50 (Fairview)
Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).
Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery. He gets the edge for now but he is vulnerable.
Outlook: Leans Lim.
51 (Clackamas)
Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).
Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores. Barton has as good a chance as anyone, although it is definitely an uphill battle.
Outlook: Leans Flores.
52 (Corbett)
Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).
Summary: In case you're wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt "The Law" Lindland. This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch.
Outlook: Tossup.
54 (Bend)
Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).
Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years. I can’t say that this is the year the Ds will break through and win here but it could be.
Outlook: Leans Burley.
59 (The Dalles)
Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).
Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup. However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.
Outlook: Leans Huffman.
Well that’s it, let me know what you think.