Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines). * denotes incumbent.
Roberts* (R) 50
Slattery (D) 38
Roberts is right at the 50% mark, teetering on the edge of the danger zone. Slattery trails by twelve points, an almost direct confirmation of an earlier Rasmussen poll which showed Roberts leading 52% to 40%.
I thought that Rasmussen poll was almost too good to be true, despite the twelve-point gap. Roberts is a two-term incumbent from a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since the New Deal.
Slattery, meanwhile, has been out of politics since 1994, when he was thrashed in his race for Governor of Kansas. He has only just officially filed for the race, and started campaigning and raising money only in mid-March.
For him to be so competitive with Roberts, so quickly, in such a red state, is truly remarkable.
Meanwhile, McCain leads Obama 51% to 40%.
KANSAS POLL RESULTS - JUNE 2008
The Research 2000 Kansas Poll was conducted from June 2 through June 4, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 289 (48%)
Women 311 (52%)
Democrats 198 (33%)
Republicans 270 (45%)
Independents/Other 132 (22%)
18-29 114 (19%)
30-44 192 (32%)
45-59 162 (27%)
60+ 132 (22%)
District 1 148 interviews
District 2 150 interviews
District 3 151 interviews
District 4 151 interviews
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Pat Roberts? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 24% 32% 21% 19% 4%
MEN 25% 34% 21% 18% 2%
WOMEN 23% 30% 21% 20% 6%
DEMOCRATS 11% 17% 35% 34% 3%
REPUBLICANS 35% 44% 10% 8% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 21% 30% 23% 19% 7%
18-29 21% 28% 25% 22% 4%
30-44 27% 36% 17% 16% 4%
45-59 26% 35% 18% 18% 3%
60+ 23% 30% 23% 20% 4%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Slattery? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 12% 36% 22% 15% 15%
MEN 10% 34% 24% 17% 15%
WOMEN 14% 38% 20% 13% 15%
DEMOCRATS 22% 50% 10% 6% 12%
REPUBLICANS 6% 25% 33% 24% 12%
INDEPENDENTS 10% 37% 17% 11% 25%
18-29 16% 41% 18% 11% 14%
30-44 8% 31% 26% 19% 16%
45-59 9% 33% 25% 18% 15%
60+ 15% 39% 19% 13% 14%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect Pat Roberts, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Roberts?
REELECT CONSIDER REPLACE NOT SURE
ALL 49% 24% 18% 9%
MEN 53% 26% 14% 7%
WOMEN 45% 22% 22% 11%
DEMOCRATS 21% 23% 40% 16%
REPUBLICANS 72% 22% 4% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 30% 14% 11%
18-29 45% 22% 21% 12%
30-44 53% 26% 15% 6%
45-59 52% 26% 16% 6%
60+ 46% 22% 20% 12%
QUESTION: If election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Jim Slattery, the Democrat, or Pat Roberts, the Republican?
ROBERTS SLATTERY UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 38% 12%
MEN 56% 34% 10%
WOMEN 44% 42% 14%
DEMOCRATS 13% 74% 13%
REPUBLICANS 78% 10% 12%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 42% 11%
18-29 46% 42% 12%
30-44 54% 34% 12%
45-59 52% 35% 13%
60+ 48% 41% 11%
DISTRICT 1 55% 34% 11%
DISTRICT 2 46% 42% 12%
DISTRICT 3 46% 41% 13%
DISTRICT 4 53% 35% 12%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN OBAMA UNDECIDED
ALL 51% 40% 9%
MEN 56% 36% 8%
WOMEN 46% 44% 10%
DEMOCRATS 12% 78% 10%
REPUBLICANS 81% 11% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 48% 43% 9%
18-29 45% 45% 10%
30-44 55% 36% 9%
45-59 54% 37% 9%
60+ 49% 43% 8%
DISTRICT 1 56% 35% 9%
DISTRICT 2 47% 45% 8%
DISTRICT 3 47% 44% 9%
DISTRICT 4 54% 36% 10%
QUESTION: If Barack Obama selected Kathleen Sebelius as his Vice Presidential running mate, would that you make you more or less likely to vote for Obama, or would it have no real affect on your vote?
MORE LESS NO EFFECT
ALL 32% 29% 39%
MEN 28% 32% 40%
WOMEN 36% 26% 38%
DEMOCRATS 52% 8% 40%
REPUBLICANS 15% 47% 38%
INDEPENDENTS 36% 24% 40%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
ALL 37% 60% 3%
MEN 40% 58% 2%
WOMEN 34% 62% 4%
DEMOCRATS 8% 91% 1%
REPUBLICANS 61% 36% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 31% 62% 7%
18-29 32% 65% 3%
30-44 41% 56% 3%
45-59 40% 57% 3%
60+ 35% 63% 2%