If Obama's primary victory didn't lift your spirits enough already, check out Guy Saperstein's heartening take on the dynamics of the general election in November.
Published yesterday over at Alternet, the essay is a follow-up of Saperstein's prescient post from December '07 (back when Obama was polling at -20% nationally), wherein he argued that Hillary was a fundamentally weak candidate and predicted that Obama would get the nomination.
Here, he turns his astute eye on McCain and concludes
The November presidential election is not going to be close. Barack Obama is going to beat John McCain by 8 to 10 points in the national popular vote and win 300 to 350 electoral votes. Obama is going to wipe out McCain. (...)
I am far more confident making this prediction than I was in predicting Hillary's demise. There are many reasons why.
Let's consider those reasons, the most intriguing of which is the author's diagnosis of long-term PTSD, below the fold.
1. Bush is poison
We all know about the Shrub's abysmal approval ratings, and the burden that represents for McCain, but
what is truly remarkable about Bush is how long-term and persistent voter disapproval of him has been, and the depth of voter sentiment: A May 12 Washington Post/ABC poll showed only 15 percent of voters "strongly approve," while 52 percent "strongly disapprove."
2. "Simply put, this is the worst possible time for any Republican to be running for president"
"On issues", writes Saperstein, "the Republicans are on the short end of everything". They poll unfavorably on healthcare, the economy, moral values, Iraq and general favorability. This is ALL voters, mind you, 73% of whom feel that the Republicans have led the country "in the wrong direction".
In the words of Republican Congressman Tom Davis (VA), "The Republican brand is in the trash can. (I)f we were dog food, they'd take us off the shelf".
3. Current polling on Obama-McCain matchup is misleading
McCain has been able to stay close to parity in polls matching him with Obama, but that is the product of the bashing Obama has taken from the Clinton campaign. Once that internal scrap is behind him and he can go head to head against McCain, his polling is going to soar.
4. Fundraising = no contest
No need for explanation, Obama's shown what he can do. Interestingly, though, not only are unions contributing more than they used to,
even business PACs have given more money to Democrats (than to Republicans)! Business blows with the wind, and it knows which way the wind is blowing.
5. "The problem with McCain is that his brain is no longer working"
Ok here's the interesting part. While acknowledging the honor and loyalty McCain displayed when he "declined the opportunity to be released from a North Vietnamese prison because his father had been a Navy admiral and chose instead to stay with his comrades for 5½ years", and giving him due credit for the authenticity of his pre-Bush 'maverick' reputation, Saperstein says:
There is something wrong. Many doctor friends of mine hypothesize Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, which is consistent with his 5½ years of great stress in prison and which can explain his violent temper, his memory lapses and his frequent mental disconnects. It also is possible that he is suffering mini-strokes, which cause momentary double vision, partial blackouts and confusion, and which could explain why he can say incredibly stupid things, sometimes the same dumb thing several times in one day, without appearing to understand what he just said. Whatever the specific cause, he is not healthy, and mentally he is struggling to hold it together.
6. McCain doesn't KNOW anything's wrong
What we are going to see in the general election from McCain is a ton of mistakes. The very thing the press likes about him, his candor and shoot-from-the-hip style, is going to kill him when the full weight of media attention is trained on him. (...) The media has always loved the quick, gritty, candid McCain, but that version is gone; he now is a damaged, slower-thinking McCain, but his habits will remain the same. He will still try to be the quick wit, the maverick; it just isn't going to work. (...) This is not just about being 71; it is about being a very old 71.
7. Obama is McCain's worst nightmare
McCain will appear slow, befuddled and confused; he will make gaffes. Obama will be charismatic, smart, thoughtful, high-minded, alert and substantive. It will be no contest. (...) Obama's overwhelming intellectual superiority and mental alertness will become obvious. There will be (...) another type of vote that is going to swing heavily to Obama: the default vote. Voters are going to default to Obama because it will become obvious that McCain simply is not up to the task of being president.
I personally hope that Saperstein is wrong about McCain's PTSD, because that would mean the poor guy is still suffering from the horrifying experience of being a POW. I would prefer, for McCain's sake, that his declining mental acuity is simply a natural function of aging, or difficulty in parroting the talking points he's being fed by his neo-con sponsors, rather than psycho-emotional anguish.
But regardless of the cause, I doubt there's anyone here who is not eagerly looking forward to the presidential debates, where the already obvious differences between the candidates' energy, charisma, intellect and grasp of the issues will become SO obvious that Saperstein's interesting prediction about the "default vote" may well prove to be true.
N.B. this diary was originally posted with a title referring to "McCain's PTSD", and subsequently changed on the advice of commenters.