AK-Sen: Republican pollster Hellenthal and Associates has polled both the Senate and House races in Alaska, and the Senate poll gives us excellent news.
It shows Democrat Mark Begich leading Republican Ted Stevens, 51% to 44%.
Caveats:
-This poll is one month old; it was conducted May 6 to 10.
-The poll has a very high margin of error, at 6%.
-Other than that Hellenthal is generally a GOP pollster, I have no knowledge of their general reliability.
That said, while I have no knowledge of how accurate this particular poll is, I know of no reason why it could not be essentially accurate.
GA-Sen: Six candidates seeking Georgia's Senate seat attended a forum for discussion lately. Two shockers from this forum. One, Bush-lover Vernon Jones is classy:
DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones arrived almost 30 minutes late and lashed out at the media for suggesting that his Senate bid would depend on black voters.
And two, incumbent Saxby Chambliss clearly thinks defending his record among his challengers is beneath him:
Chambliss declined to attend.
NH-Sen: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, former Governor of New Hampshire and current U.S. Senate candidate, diaried Saturday at Blue Hampshire. She wrote of having had the privilege, in 1999, of signing the bill into law which officially made Martin Luther King Day a New Hampshire holiday:
Having this honor meant a great deal to me. Growing up in southern Missouri and teaching in the Deep South, I saw firsthand the effects of segregation and racism. I also saw the positive changes -- some dramatic, some more incremental -- brought by the civil rights movement.
This week our nation took another giant step toward the ideal of equality for all when Barack Obama became the first African-American to secure the delegates necessary to be the Presidential nominee of a major party.
While there is still a lot of work to do before we can say that all Americans, regardless of their race, gender or sexual orientation have the same opportunities to succeed, this week we moved ever closer to achieving Dr. King's dream of creating a world where all people are treated with dignity and respect.
Hear, hear.
MN-Sen: Al Franken officially clinched the DFL nomination for U.S. Senate this week. From Franken's acceptance speech, regarding his opponent:
"I want to thank my supporters. I want to thank all of you, but first of all I want to say something about Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. In the QnA I was asked why I'm a Democrat. I'm a Democrat because this is the only party that would have a Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer."
"This is only party that would have a man of such compassion, strong heart and such soul. It has been an honor to share the stage with you, sir. And the same goes for Jack's supporters, his staff to his volunteers, to his interns. I'd be honored to share a stage, rally or anything with you because you are fantastic."
Very classy of him.
House Races
OH-01: Roll Call (subscription-only) has an article about the high-profile race in the Cincinnati-based First District of Ohio, currently represented by Republican Steve Chabot.
In five of his seven elections, the Cincinnati-based Congressman did not break 56 percent in the general election. In 2006, Chabot defeated Cincinnati Councilman John Cranley (D), 52 percent to 48 percent.
But while Chabot’s races have been close, this year’s challenger, state Rep. Steve Driehaus (D), confidently said in an interview Tuesday that things will be different this year — and that the Congressman is likely to lose.
"Steve Chabot would like to claim that the Democrats like to come after him, time and time again," Driehaus said. "I would argue that this simply isn’t true. I would argue that there have been a couple solid efforts ... I think Cranley ran a great campaign ... but I think if you asked people in Cincinnati, they say this is as tough a race as Chabot has ever faced."
The 1st district is unique, even for Ohio. It takes in most of urban Cincinnati and its northern Republican-leaning suburbs. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) lost the district by a little more than 3,000 votes during the 2004 White House election
As the article states, races are almost always relatively close in OH-01, and Chabot very nearly lost his seat in 2006 against John Cranley. The district itself will veyr likely go solidly for Barack Obama in the fall-more than a quarter of the district's population is black, and the district split almost evenly between Bush and Kerry in 2004.
Driehaus is one of the DCCC's top-tier recruits this cycle, but Chabot has certainly proven his electoral mettle in the past. This race should be neck-and-neck right up until election day; Chabot is certainly favored at least until some polling comes out, but I doubt he's resting easy.
LA-06: The Republicans have found at least one decent candidate to face Democratic freshman Don Cazayoux, in the person of Baton Rouge state senator Bill Cassidy.
The GOP narrowly lost the recent special election here, largely because
- Cazayoux is a pretty good candidate, and
- Republican Woody Jenkins is a terrible candidate.
James L. at Swing State Project notes that Cassidy starts with a couple of built-in advantages against Cazayoux:
Cassidy was first elected to the state senate in 2006, but on paper he would bring a couple of key advantages to the GOP in this race: 1) His base is in Baton Rouge, the district's population center and the area that delivered this race for Cazayoux in May; and 2) he's not Woody Jenkins.
Of course, Cassidy has to make his way out of the primary first, and while I doubt the GOP will settle for Jenkins again, it's far from clear that Cassidy will be their nominee.
Good news for Democrats: the good guys are launching a massive voter registration drive in Louisiana, with the target of getting 70,000 new Dems on the voter rolls:
Using to its advantage the allure of this year's captivating presidential contest, one Democratic organization has culled the names of as many as 50,000 people in four major parishes -- including Jefferson and Orleans -- to be added to Louisiana's voter rolls.
The group, called Voting Is Power and financed by the national Democratic Party, has been canvassing neighborhoods since February, collecting personal information and signatures from as many new potential voters as possible, said Brian Welsh, a spokesman for Louisiana Victory, the umbrella group coordinating local and national Democratic voter drives. Voting Is Power members also have targeted East Baton Rouge and Caddo parishes.
The group, based in Washington, D.C., has fanned out to several states to beef up Democratic voter rolls. The ultimate goal is to register roughly 70,000 new voters in Louisiana before the November election, Welsh said.
NM-01: Welcome Martin Heinrich, the newest member of the DCCC's Red To Blue program.
From the DCCC press release:
Chairman Chris Van Hollen announced today that Martin Heinrich (NM-01) will immediately be added to the DCCC's Red to Blue program for open seats following his decisive victory in Tuesday's Democratic primary. Congressional candidates earn a spot in the competitive program by surpassing demanding fundraising goals and by skillfully showing voters that they stand for change and will represent new priorities when elected to Congress. Heinrich is one of only 12 candidates in the Red to Blue program for open seats.
"Martin Heinrich is a strong and principled leader committed to change. Martin has a proven record of raising the minimum wage, creating good jobs, cracking down on crime and protecting New Mexico's environment," said Chairman Chris Van Hollen. "The Red to Blue Program will give Martin the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive."
ME-01: Tomorrow is primary day in Maine's 1st District, where six Democrats are vying to fill the seat of Senate candidate Tom Allen.
Former State Senate Majority Leader Chellie Pingree appears to be the frontrunner, but she is getting a strong challenge from an unlikely source, Iraq War veteran Adam Cote:
Anthony Corrado, professor of government at Colby College in the Maine city of Waterville, said Pingree has used her financial advantage to run the most television ads, which have boosted voter recognition of her opposition to the Iraq war and her plans for expanding health care coverage.
Corrado added, though, that Cote has "really come up . . . and has emerged as a strong challenger." Even Pingree chimed in on Cote’s recent success, "I’m worried about the level of support he’s gotten." But she cast Cote’s emergence as a factor in the Democratic primary in a somewhat negative light, saying, "He has a lot more conservative views than the district ... A lot of Republicans in the state are putting money into Adam."
Cote, an Army Reserve platoon leader in Iraq who also participated in Bosnia peacekeeping missions during the late 1990s, has drawn attention as a veteran who is critical of the Bush administration’s Iraq policy, but Corrado says Cote overall has a moderate profile that contrasts with Pingree’s more liberal image. This is symbolized by the endorsement Cote received from the Business Industry Political Action Committee, better known as BIPAC, which gives the overwhelming majority of its support to Republican candidates.