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Obama's 50-state strategy, from the latest campaign email:

People like you have been the heart of Chairman Howard Dean's 50-state strategy to rebuild our party and empower Democrats to compete everywhere. We've all seen the energy and enthusiasm at the grassroots level impact races up and down the ballot over the last three years.

I am proud to announce that our presidential campaign will be the first in a generation to deploy and maintain staff in every single state.

That's incredible. It's revolutionary.

Much was said last week about "Obama keeping Dean at the DNC". That much was never in doubt. No nominee has ever booted a sitting chairman. It would reek of civil war. Even Clinton would've kept Dean. There really was no story there.

What is a story, however, is that Dean's 50 State Strategy and Obama's 50 State Campaign are now coming together in this fashion. Campaign offices in every single state? Obama's is the only campaign that promised this type of effort, and they're delivering.

So what's that mean? It doesn't mean Obama will win 50 states, obviously. But it does mean a commitment to 1) an expanded presidential battleground, 2) long-term party building, and 3) attention to the down-ballot races that will ultimately decide whether the Obama Agenda will see the light of day. The more seats Obama's Democratic Party can amass in the House and in the Senate, the stronger his influence and the bolder his legislation can be.

In other words, this is much bigger than the presidential race, and I'm extremely encouraged that a presidential campaign has decided to take such a broad approach to these coming elections.

As far as the presidential race itself is concerned, let's go back to my battleground map from last week:

This map can and will evolve over the coming months. But as of now, the yellow states are those that are within single digits in the polls and thus are considered "battlegrounds". And right now, Obama is competitive in 13 14 Bush states -- Alaska, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, 1-2 EVs in Nebraska (which splits its electoral votes), Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida. In contrast, McCain is competitive in just six Kerry states, and Massachusetts and New Jersey will solidify putting them out of play.

What's more, heavy African American populations in Mississippi and Georgia can put those states within reach, while continued strong Latino participation in Texas could likewise throw the Lone Star State into contention,  forcing the McCain campaign to play even wider defense than this map would suggest.

Beyond those states not in yellow or Blue above, Senate races in Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Texas can be positively influenced by Obama's organizing, as well as House races in just about every single state. Throw in state-level races for good measure, and you suddenly have the biggest nationwide organizing effort perhaps in the party's entire history.

That is tremendous stuff, and something to look forward to in the coming months. It's an effort, as well, that will require lots of volunteer power, so keep your eyes open for local opportunities to lend a hand. Millions of new Democrats won't register themselves or turn out to vote on their own!

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:50 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Delighted with the strategy! (19+ / 0-)

    I am very happy that the reconciliation with the Clintons was not combined with using the Penn McCauliffe strategy.  

    I am wondering when we will get a BILL CLINTON ENDORSEMENT!!!!!

  •  Finally...a NATIONAL campaign for President. (39+ / 0-)

    I've been waiting for this to happen for years.

    Glad we've got the right candidate, and the resources, to finally do it.

    We are a party of innovation...We are willing to suffer the discomfort of change in order to achieve a better future. -- Barbara Jordan

    by wmtriallawyer on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:54:03 AM PDT

  •  yeeeeaaarrrrgggghhh!!! (22+ / 0-)

    THIS is the change we've been waiting for.  It's wonderful to see the ideas Dean promoted back in 2003 finally coming to fruition... although it's probably going to make me even snottier about "Right all along". :P

  •  Also... (20+ / 0-)

    [...]Senate races in Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Texas can be positively influenced by Obama's organizing[...]

    ...in a bit of a reversal, Mark Warner's run for Senate can help boost Obama's numbers in Virginia come election time.

  •  Check this shit from Redstate (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.redstate.com/...

    Boy are they in for a serious ass kicking come November.

    "Indifferent circles we keep holding our ground. In different circles we keep spinning round and round and." - Peart

    by Ex Real Republican on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:54:55 AM PDT

  •  Great strategy, but let's also be realistic (4+ / 0-)

    when it comes to resource allocation.  I'd rather tons of money be invested in Ohio, North Carolina and Colorado than in Mississippi and Texas.

    Absolute Horror: The Best in Bad Horror Movies

    by dansac on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:54:58 AM PDT

  •  It's About Coattails (24+ / 0-)

    To be an effective president--a transformative one--he'll need big Congressional majorities.  This is smart because him running two or five points better in losing states may help bring in several more members of Congress and maybe some more senators.

    The revolution will not be televised, but we'll analyze it to death at The Next Hurrah.

    by Dana Houle on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:55:11 AM PDT

    •  Not only that... (6+ / 0-)

      But it makes McCain play defense in more states, which means he either has to spread his money around to different areas, (and for a campaign that is already cash poor, that's really diluting the pool), or he just gives up on them altogether and merely hopes for the best.

      •  not really (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TheUnknown285

        It only forces McCain to respond if its effective.

        If I were McCain, I would ignore it in the dozen or so solid red states.    

        Bush/Rove played this strategy in 2000 by going hard into California and New Jersey in the last weeks of the campaign, and they lost the states by record margins.  If they had instead focused on Florida, would there have been a recount fight?

        My guess is that this is just window dressing, not real spending.  At least I hope that's true.  Betting on long shots like NC is one thing, wasting money in Utah is another.

        •  The problem Bush had... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus

          ...was that they were running following a popular lame duck president in a status quo environment.  Obama is running to succeed a very unpopular president in a "throw the bums out" environment.  I think 2008 will be closer to 1992 (where historically red states like California, Connecticut, New Jersey, Vermont, New Hampshire, etc. flipped pretty easily while others like Indiana and Virginia were close) than 2000.

        •  Not exactly window dressing... (0+ / 0-)

          But, organization building which should not cost much. For the Obama campaign in some states you could be talking say 2-4 paid staffers with rental car and motel budgets driving all over the state for the next 5 months providing organization and training to volunteers.

          In addition you budget money to provide campaign materials to those volunteer organizations and perhaps a central help staff to take calls from volunteer groups when they have questions or want to order campaign materials. This basic organization building effort could probably be done for under $10 million for all 50 states combined.  I guess an extra $5 million in a battleground state might make a difference, but if the election is that close I think we have other problems.

  •  GOBAMA (13+ / 0-)

    mobilize those dems in Oklahoma to defeat Inhofe!

    Andrew Rice for OK Senate

    "You don't make peace with friends. You make it with very unsavory enemies." -Yitzhak Rabin

    by juslikagrzly on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:55:24 AM PDT

  •  this proud California girl... (9+ / 0-)

    has never wanted so badly to live in a swing state that i could help deliver to Obama!

    "We've always taken care of you; why do you want to leave home?" And America's the girl taking Barack Obama's arm: "But Mom I love him!"-Mort Sahl

    by carpediva on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:55:47 AM PDT

  •  South Dakota (6+ / 0-)

    What is so different about South Dakota that it is so strongly Red, while North Dakota and Nebraska are in the 'toss-up' category.

    It is not that I expect to win any of those 3 states, but why is SD showing so much more red?

    Stagflation, here we come

    by smoosh21 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:55:47 AM PDT

  •  Nicely done (5+ / 0-)

    It is completely apparent to all of us that you are one psyched-up puppy!

    Join the club!!!!

  •  Hey Terry "17-State Strategy" McCauliffe! (17+ / 0-)

    Who looks like an idiot now?

    (I never really understood how conceding almost half of the states before the game even started was a winning strategy...)

    I want my Two Dollars!

    by Ken in MN on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:55:58 AM PDT

  •  I think Tennessee is possible for Obama (17+ / 0-)

    Harold Ford narrowly missed becoming our Senator, so the racial issue is not as big as you might think.  Continuous immigration into middle Tennessee from Californians like me is changing the nature of the place.   And even the Appalachian part has pockets of sanity, eg the area around Oak Ridge national labs.

    The sleep of reason brings forth monsters. --Goya

    by MadScientist on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:56:11 AM PDT

    •  And black turnout in Shelby County alone (6+ / 0-)

      offset the rest of the state for Bill Clinton in 1996

      •  If Gore had paid attention to his home state in (5+ / 0-)

        2000, the Bush Administration never would have happened.

        The sleep of reason brings forth monsters. --Goya

        by MadScientist on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:59:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gore didn't have a 50 state strategy (9+ / 0-)

          He was using the Clinton playbook of "hold the big Democratic states and make a major play for the big key "swing" states".

          What no one realized at the time was, that strategy only worked for Bill Clinton and only because Ross Perot played spoiler...twice.

          Once Florida was stolen, it was "game over, man".

          •  If he ran in 2008, Gore would most (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus, TheUnknown285, Uncle Moji

            certainly have run a 50-state campaign.

            Comparing the circumstances in 2000 with those in 2008 is apples to oranges.

            What Gore started with was a race handicapped by Clinton scandal fatigue:

            NBC/WSJ Poll

            Date		Gore	Bush
            
            12/9-12/99	39	50	
            10/23-25/99	39	49	
            9/9-12/99	35	52	
            7/24-26/99	37	50	
            6/16-19/99	36	51 (Gore down by 15%)
            
            6/16/99: Gore launches campaign
            
            4/17-19/99	35	53 (Gore down by 18%)
            3/4-7/99	34	52
            
            12/19/98: Clinton impeached
            
            12/3-6/98	40	50
            10/24-27/98	40	48	
            9/10-13/98	39	49
            6/18-21/98	40	44
            4/18-20/98	41	44
            
            1/19/08: Lewinsky scandal erupts.
            
            9/97		45	39 (Gore up by 6%)
            

            Due to incessant media smearing, Gore trailed Bush all the way until the convention. He was badly out-raised as well (Gore had only $130mn AFTER taking matching funds, compared to Bush's $190mn, and Obama's what will likely be well over $600mn).

            Under those circumstances, Nader surfaced and was threatening Gore in "must win" states like WA, OR, MN, WI, IA, NH, FL. In order to defend those states, Gore was forced out of winnable states like: OH, MO, WV, AR, TN, etc.

            By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, 10/24/2000

            Green Party nominee Ralph Nader is hurting the vice president in some key states. Gore is spending increasing time and money in a defensive posture, campaigning in states he had hoped to sew up long ago. And, Gore has written off much of the South.

            Yesterday, in what may be partly an effort to unnerve Gore, the Bush campaign for the first time began spending heavily on television ads in Tennessee, Gore's home state, and in Minnesota, usually a reliably Democratic bastion. Gore, meanwhile, spent yesterday campaigning in Oregon and Washington, where Nader is taking votes away in a traditionally Democratic region.

            In today's circumstances, namely:

            1. Bush fatigue (instead of Clinton fatigue)
            1. energized party base, thanks to the netroots/social networking/youtube/Obama's campaign movements
            1. better behaved media, thanks to the netroots
            1. less potent Nader-like candidacies (people have learned the hard way)
            1. better fund-raising, organizing and message dissemination (because the internet is 8 years more advanced. It was Gore who helped advance the internet in the halls of govt to make these things possible today)

            there is no question whatsoever that had Gore's run taken place this year, he would've run a 50-state grassroots/netroots/enviromental movement powered campaign (potentially far bigger than Obama's movement.) He even said so looking at Dean's movement in 2003.

            Comparisons people make between 2000 and 2008 tend to be blind to the dramatically different landscapes that exist between the two contexts. I really think we should stop making them.

            "Howard, this is not about you. This is about your country." --- Al Gore.

            by NeuvoLiberal on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:52:45 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Gore was trying to win 270 electoral votes (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Vicky, limpidglass

          That was his job.

          Winning TN and potentially losing one or more of WA, OR, MN, WI, IA etc would not have served the purpose, and in the final weeks, Nader was threatening Gore in those must win states.

          Please see above.

          Gore strategy seems to have been to try and win the must win states and win FL, putting them at the 292 electoral vote level, giving them some buffer for losing a couple of close must wins but still finishing above the 270 EV mark. Under the circumstances, that wasn't a bad stategy, IMO.

          90% of the commentary I see on the 200 election is poorly informed, illogical or inconsiderate of the context/circumstances.

          Can we please stop regurgitating the 2000 election using poor logic?

          "Howard, this is not about you. This is about your country." --- Al Gore.

          by NeuvoLiberal on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:01:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Putting just a bit more in resources... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus, TheUnknown285

            into New Hampshire, for example, would have done the job. In fact, any single state would have flipped the election to Gore.

            •  You say that with the benefit of hindsight (0+ / 0-)

              because you know how the states actually broke. In fact, Gore had 267 EVs (w/o FL) and every state and DC have 3 or EVs, and so one could say, that putting resources in any of the states Gore didn't win would've put him over the top (267+3 = 270).

              But, all of that is armchair QBing, with the benefit of hindsight.

              Before the fact, in real time, you don't know how the close states would break and therefore you design a strategy with a multi-state mixture of resource investment (allowing yourself some buffer) and execute it.

              These were the states that finished 3% and under:

              # Florida, <0.0092% # New Mexico, 0.06% # Wisconsin, 0.22% # Iowa, 0.31% # Oregon, 0.44% # New Hampshire, 1.27% # Minnesota, 2.40% <p>wiki

              Gore won 5 out of 6 (6 out of 7 if we count FL) close states and Nader was a serious factor in ALL of these states. I think the strategy (under the circumstances) was executed rather well.

              In the end, Gore lost due to a biased supreme court verdict.

              "Howard, this is not about you. This is about your country." --- Al Gore.

              by NeuvoLiberal on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:14:13 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Still (0+ / 0-)

                TN was Gore's home state and he completely ignored it.   He thought he could mail it in. Gore is a great man, but he ran a poor campaign, in my opinion.

                The sleep of reason brings forth monsters. --Goya

                by MadScientist on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:48:51 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  actually, (0+ / 0-)

                  from that 10/24 except I posted above, Gore wrote off (potentially winnable) southern states including TN (in the final weeks) in order to fend off Nader's threat of delivering must win states to Bush.

                  It doesn't matter that TN was Gore's home state because the task at hand was to win 270 electoral votes. If, eg,  WI (both TN and WI had 11 electoral votes in 2000 was under threat (which it was, because of Nader) with you 0-1% ahead there, and you're behind in TN by 9%, where would you devote most of your limited  resources? It would be irrational to not work to ensure a WI win given that choice, at that stage. And, Gore would be nothing if he wasn't rational.

                  Besides, TN swung far to the right during the 90s (which I think is because of the emergence/prominence of the rightwing radio network) and Gore ran on a progressive platform that was strong on the environment.

                  Gore was the target of attacks by: coal/mining and other anti-environmental groups, tobacco, gun makers industries anti-abortion, anti-gay rights fundies. Even Clinton/Gore had a hard time winning TN in 1996; after spending tons of money and time, they barely won it by 2.4%

                  Many of the red states are somewhat swinging back towards Dems because of the wa, Bush's incompetence and all around rogueness. But, back in 2000, due to Clinton's sleazy behavior and the association poorly thinking people made of that to Gore, most of the bible belt states were out of reach (I think Gore started down 25-30% in those states; I make this estimate from the fact that Gore was down nationally by 15% in June'99 and so if he was even on par in the "blue" states, he was likely behind by 30% on the average in the "red" states). period. In fact, exit polls showed that Gore beat Bush on all of the major issues (nationally, not just the red states), except for: "values", "taxes" and "abortion". He got decimated among "values voters" and that's, besides the usual negativity in the minds of the value voters towards Dems, was mostly attributable to Clinton scandals in 2000.

                  As I've argued, strategically, TN being Gore's home state made no difference if in the calculus, it's better and necessary to devote attention to other states such as WI.

                  If it's symbolism on winning one's home turf (and I am sure Gore was deeply hurt to lose TN), then Gore won his "home country" by winning the popular vote. There! Happy? :)

                  "Howard, this is not about you. This is about your country." --- Al Gore.

                  by NeuvoLiberal on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 10:18:53 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  I have some relatives between Memphis and Nashvil (6+ / 0-)

      I am going to get them motivated to turn out and turn out their friends. I have let them know Sen. Obama's strong stand on people powered LGBTQ rights and a strong separation of church and state.

      People power = LGBTQ marital rights = OBAMA '08!

      by kevinspa on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:01:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  As a California Born (6+ / 0-)

      Migrant to East (i.e. Appalachian) Tennessee myself, I can tell you that I intend to spend some time volunteering for Obama.  The city of Knoxville proper is actually quite progressive, but the rural areas tend to offset the urban population.  Low enthusiasm for McCain could mean a decrease in this effect.  Also, if Bob Barr's Libertarian bid actually picks up steam, it could help pick off some of the more conservative voters.  Clinton won Tennessee in '92 with percentages similar to what Obama is polling there now- Perot being in large part to blame/thank fore that.

    •  I think TN is one of the least likely states (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Heart of the Rockies, AUBoy2007

      Its got the smallest black population in the south -- 10% -- and its filled with those famous "working class white voters"

      Poblano's analysis puts an Obama win as a 1% chance.  

  •  The reason it's a good strategy... (15+ / 0-)

    ...is that it also runs up the score in the popular vote. The electoral vote might be close, but if he can win by several million votes, it will lend a lot more legitimacy to his victory.

    For what it's worth, my blind stab at picking states gives Obama a maximum of 345 electoral votes in an optimistic scenario.

  •  I'm volunteering to help register! (7+ / 0-)

    There are 2 truths: 1) unregistered (to date) Democratic voters are some of the most intelligent people in this country and they are eager for a people powered kossack agenda of a strong separation of church and state and LGBTQ fundamental rights and 2) these voters are unfamiliar with the extremely difficult and time consuming voter registration process.
    That is why it is imperative that we as kossacks work hard to register and get these people powered voters to the polls in November!

    People power = LGBTQ marital rights = OBAMA '08!

    by kevinspa on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:56:40 AM PDT

  •  We're organizing in Alabama! (13+ / 0-)

    I would LOVE for the "Heart of Dixie" to be in the blue column.

    If we continue to accumulate only power and not wisdom, we will surely destroy ourselves. -Carl Sagan

    by LightningMan on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:56:54 AM PDT

  •  Great! (4+ / 0-)

    In this high tech age, I hope that the campaign also gives state and local campaigns sufficient old fashioned campaign materials.  Yard signs, bumber stickers, T- Shirts, etc still have a role in campaigns.  In the last presidential campaigns they have been difficult to obtain.   When I wear my T-shirts I inevitably get a chance to discuss Obama that I might otherwise not have.  While I know we can order on line, many won't do that.  Danny

  •  Obama EV Strategy (5+ / 0-)

    I see an Obama victory grouped as follows and my assessment as to where the race will be in October barring a major gaffe/revelation or major economic/war event that fundamentally alters the dynamic of the race:

    Pacific Bloc : CA, OR, WA, HI = (73 EV. Safe)

    Northeast/MidAtlantic Bloc : ME, VT, MA, NY, CT, RI, NJ, DE, MD, DC : (91 EV. Safe.)

    Great Lakes/Midwest Bloc : MN, IA, WI, IL, IN, MI, PA (97 EV. I think that the "tossups' like IA, WI will safely come home. I think that Obama is already up in MI and his superior organization and GOTV operation will keep MI. I think IN is the interesting pickup. I think Obama will seriously challenge Mccain here and make this a very good pickup opportunity. Figure a higher AA turnout out of Indianapolis & the NE combined with a youth vote turnout. I think PA stays blue and all the recent polls say so. 97 EV. EVen if Obama loses IN (11EV) he still walks out with 86 EV.

    At this point he arrives at 250 or essentially what Kerry had in 2004 (252).

    Now come the two major pickup opportunities :

    Southwest : CO, NM, NV : 19 EV's. I feel good about CO & NM and give McCain the edge in NV. Say Obama comes away with 14 EV.

    Which brings him to 264 or six short of victory.

    Battlegrounds and Obama Reaches : NH, OH, VA, FL, MO, NC : 90 EVs. I put his chances in order as follows : OH>VA>NH>MO>FL,NC. I think that running a Strickland sort of campaign in PH can bring this home. I think VA will be interesting to see. I can see MO and NH breaking for us. I would like to see a fight in NC & FL to force McCain to defend his must-win states. McCain does not have a path to win without those 42 EVs. I see Obama taking OH for sure. I think that NH and VA will be the difference between Obama winning 300+ EVs or winning in the 285-290 range.

  •  Wish people would stop taking NJ for granted (6+ / 0-)

    The state is currently screaming for real substantive change. Unfortuneatly the Dems are currently the bums in power.

    I have faith Obama can win here, but we're going broke... and things really could get ugly fast.

    I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man's reasoning powers are not above the monkey's. - Mark Twain

    by Windowdog on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:57:34 AM PDT

    •  Obama will win (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheUnknown285, CityLightsLover

      but others, like Lautenberg, are at risk

    •  I'm sure Obama's team (4+ / 0-)

      won't take it for granted, but isn't there a saying up there?

      Something like: "folks in New Jersey hate Democrats, but they REALLY hate republicans..."

      Something to that effect I've heard now and again.

      Seems to ring true no matter what.  They always seem to flirt with republicans but always come home to Democrats in the end.

      Plus if it is substantive change that is desired in NJ, then how can there be any doubt that Obama's message will resonate?

      You snooze you lose, well I have snost and lost, I'm pushing thru, I'll disregard the cost... -Mike Doughty

      by Sean in Motion on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:20:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Depends on how you define substantive. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus

        Obama isn't going to break the NJ machine's grip on public policy, nor is her going to address any of the rock and a hard place local issues like property taxes or the need to merge small towns. Those are local issues, but things are getting so bad that it's not infeasible for the coattails to wag the dog one of these cycles.

        And the whole "GOP never wins" line is how we got 8 years of Christie Whittman thank you very much.

        I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man's reasoning powers are not above the monkey's. - Mark Twain

        by Windowdog on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:37:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TheUnknown285

          of course my knowledge of New Jersey politics is hovering right above zero.

          I definitely am not advocating that we just bank NJ in our favor.

          But I do think Obama has a better chance than McCain there.

          I hope that in campaigning there he will be able to address the issues you named above and others that are important to you.

          You snooze you lose, well I have snost and lost, I'm pushing thru, I'll disregard the cost... -Mike Doughty

          by Sean in Motion on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:58:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  i'm really getting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chap, CityLightsLover

    to be nauseated by the color red on these maps.  i hope and will work to change my state's color, but, texas, i'm afraid, is lost for some time to come.  this is where all the bushies live.  

    Just once in a while let us exalt the importance of ideas and information. -- Edward R. Murrow

    by labwitchy on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:57:35 AM PDT

    •  Don't be too sure (3+ / 0-)

      Democrats are making major gains at the local level in areas of Houston and Dallas.  Our state legislature is slowly but surely getting bluer.

      It may not be ready for prime time yet, but Texas is changing, and I don't think it will take as long as you fear.

      You snooze you lose, well I have snost and lost, I'm pushing thru, I'll disregard the cost... -Mike Doughty

      by Sean in Motion on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:21:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  and may the gods of blue (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sean in Motion

        take pity on us and help us out here.

        i'm in fort worth, and neocons are heavily entrenched here, but, i know political change doesn't happen overnight (although, seems to me that texas turning red happened pretty damn quickly).  i'm working for change by volunteering with rick noriega's campaign AND barack obama's campaign.

        if my health would allow, i'd do more than i've promised, but, alas...i do need to rest at times LOL.

        Just once in a while let us exalt the importance of ideas and information. -- Edward R. Murrow

        by labwitchy on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:20:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Awesome. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          labwitchy

          Didn't realize you were in Texas when I commented earlier.

          I'm in Austin so everything is skewed here because it is a little blue oasis. There are still some things in Texas (especially when I visit my hometown of Texarkana) that can be disappointing.

          But there's definitely some good news in Texas these days, due to the efforts of many folks like yourself.

          Thanks for your volunteer work!  

          Go Noriega!  

          You snooze you lose, well I have snost and lost, I'm pushing thru, I'll disregard the cost... -Mike Doughty

          by Sean in Motion on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:49:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Nosepickers unite! (7+ / 0-)

    For the 50-State Strategy, Howard Dean and Barack Obama!

    "Time to go home to my mansion and eat my lobster." --- Frank Grimes

    by droogie6655321 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:57:37 AM PDT

  •  New Mexico was never a "Bush state" (6+ / 0-)

    as every early poll and exit poll has told us.  If it weren't for peekaboo ballot boxes and mysteriously illogical presidential undervotes in key regions, this would be corroborated with electoral outcomes.  

    And the jerk who presided over same, as Bush's NM campaign chair, is Sherriff Darren White of Bernalillo County, now running for Heather "Nipplegate" Wilson's old seat against progressive (and photogenic) Martin Heinrich.  Not that Mr. White has seen fit to advertise that experience ANYWHERE on his campaign site.

    Sherriff White, we have a grudge to settle.

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 07:58:36 AM PDT

  •  Thank you for the yellow states! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chap, TheUnknown285, CityLightsLover

    I have seen so many maps in the MSM with at least half of those yellow states red simply because "one can't imagine them going blue, they always vote Republican." I'm glad you are showing how they are actually trending this year. Democrats shouldn't buy into the MSM line about the states that "always go red" because a lot of those states can go blue this year. They are that close.

  •  I know I said this in '04, but... (4+ / 0-)

    There is no way in hell the GOP retains the White House.

    It is very encouraging to see this level of attention to the grass roots by the Dems this time around. Karl Rove won cough two elections with a "50 state" strategy, it's about time the Democratic party shoved it back down his throat.

    •  Except for that bombing thing. (5+ / 0-)

      You KNOW that if they attack Iran, the mushy middle will rally round the flag, at least for a little while.  And it's not like they're too ethical to do it.  Nor does that fact that it's an idiotic long-term strategy seem to bother them.

      "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

      by lgmcp on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:04:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, I've been expecting it (5+ / 0-)

        for quite some time now. This administration cannot leave office with Iran possessing even a modicum of influence over the region.

        Not with all the work they put into securing the BTC Pipeline  .

        •  They'll do it just for the poll bounce (3+ / 0-)

          the cynical bastards. I despair over the gullibility of my fellow citizens.  
          "Busy giddy minds, with foreign quarrels ..." Any percieved geostrategic benefits would just be gravy.  

          "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

          by lgmcp on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:18:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  absolutely right! the worse thing is that Iran is (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lgmcp, TheUnknown285

            playing the same card, they heading up a pretty unpopular regime there and would just LOVE a few precision bombs hitting them, it would rally their base too.

            Bush is already sabre rattling and has convinced a few idiots in Europe to impose sanctions and Iran are saying sanctions won't work and you know what's next!

            THE REVOLUTION WILL BE TELEVISED...DUH!

            by Dirk Thrust on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:46:45 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I must be crazy (4+ / 0-)

        but I don't see a poll bounce out of that action, even if it does happen.

        War doesn't sell much in the current environment so far as I can tell.

        An attack, not approved by congress that sends even more troops (on their 3rd, 4th or 5th rotation) into harms way right around the holidays?

        In a country that seriously has done nothing to provoke it?  There can literally be no realistic case made other than in the abstract.  At least Iraq had the appearance of danger (however thin it was).

        I don't think people are going to approve. I think it would just piss people off even more.

        Not saying I'm not totally wrong on this, I could definitely be.  But that's my take on it.

        You snooze you lose, well I have snost and lost, I'm pushing thru, I'll disregard the cost... -Mike Doughty

        by Sean in Motion on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:25:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I hope so (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lgmcp, Sean in Motion

          I hope you're right.  I would hate for there to be a President McCain just because the Landrieus and Pryors of the country don't think to criticize.

        •  I know, I know, that would be (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Osiris, Sean in Motion

          the rational response, and even mobs do the right thing once in a while. But, at the same time, I have too vivid a sense of how irrational the "don't tread on me" belligerence is, and how how easily it is triggered.  

          To wit, in the runnup to "shock 'n awe', a large old antiques store near my aunt's home in Austin, had to TAKE DOWN their 15' replica of the Eiffel Tower from their parking lot after repeated vandalization because they were afraid their store would be torched next.  And this is why, exactly?  Because the French hoped we wouldn't bomb while sanctions and inspections were working. I mean ... terrorizing Americans for having an ornament from an ALLY who disgrees with us?  

          "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

          by lgmcp on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:29:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I realize the above is an extreme instance (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Sean in Motion

            in that such harassment stems from only a handful of yahoos.  And yet, I think those yahoos have a truly enormous constituency among American voters, where hawkish policies are concerned.

            "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

            by lgmcp on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:32:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I definitely agree. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lgmcp

              Like I said, I could be way wrong.  

              I just can't help but feel after having gone thru the last five years, people's thinking on it must be changed at least a little.

              But you definitely can't count on it, that's for sure.

              You snooze you lose, well I have snost and lost, I'm pushing thru, I'll disregard the cost... -Mike Doughty

              by Sean in Motion on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:46:15 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  MA is a battleground state? (12+ / 0-)

    Who knew that the first state to allow gay marriage, the home seat of the Kennedys, the state where the hand-picked GOP challenger couldn't even qualify for the ballot.... who knew that all the time we were having a secret love affair with John McCain?

    I feel so... dirty...  ;-D

  •  I really believe this helps in Colorado (6+ / 0-)

    we are working in the belly - El Paso County. The goal is for Obama over 40% of El Paso County. In the last 5 election cycles only one D has lost a statewide or federal level race in Colorado with that margin. We also believe that will:

    1. Ensure mack Udall in the US Senate;
    1. Gain at least one, maybe two, CO House seats
    1. Gain one CO Senate seat

    This would leave Colorado with a D president, 2 D senators, a D majority US Congressional delegation, a D state senate majority and a D state house majority. in 2000, Colorado had a R president, 2 R senators, a R majority US Congressional delegation, a R state senate majority and a R state house majority.

    I'll walk 100 miles knocking on doors for my Dem candidate - Anna Lord for Colo HD21 - will you?

    by tjlord on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:00:47 AM PDT

  •  Let's not forget the Bob Barr effect (6+ / 0-)

    in the South.  If we run strong campaigns in places like GA and MS, and some of the real mouth-breathers go to Barr instead of McCain, we might even be able to pick off a state or two there.

    Winning a presidential race -- or even coming close -- can have a tremendous impact in the party building sense kos is talking about here.

  •  Obama in southern state (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CityLightsLover

    Obama will probably need downballot candidate linkage to him if he stand a chance of flipping one of those southern state.

    The problem is , i dont think any congressman or senator from a conservative leaning district/state , will want to run ads with Obama.

    Obama is planning up on teaming up with Mark Warner..Kind of like a tag-team , and Obama is hoping his strong approval rating will rub off on Obama.

    Obama may need something similar in the other redder state..He needs to get those folks in the conservative states to travel shoulder-to shoulder with him and accpet running ads with him.

    •  I think Obama can take Virginia (4+ / 0-)

      We turned out in force for him in the primaries - and even Hillary Clinton, whom he left in the dust, got more votes than McCain.

      He might even squeeze out a win in the 10th District (the sharp north corner surrounded on two sides by Appalachia), but I'm not as confident of this. (But man, if we can only - finally! - unseat Frank Wolf!!!)

      •  I'm feeling hopeful about VA... (0+ / 0-)

        There was huge Dem turnout in the primary and Obama won in a walk.

        The demographic is shifting Democratic.

        Obama could win the student vote, the AA vote and the northern VA vote big. If he can do decently elsewhere, he has a chance.

        Plus, the GOP in VA was usurped by the far right and is currently in disarray.

        VA would be a great pickup and would signal the beginning of the end for the solid south.

        "In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope."

        by LearningCurve on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:10:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  More work, but less anxiety. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CityLightsLover

    At least we know we are doing all we can.  

    Repbulican colleague at work has chided me for the last 7.5 years.  I saw him coming yesterday, smiled a greeting and said, "Landslide."  He stopped, turned around to look at me and said, "You're right this time."

    Might not be a landslide, but with this strategy, we can win this thing.

  •  Arizona will be a battleground state... (11+ / 0-)

    As an Arizona resident I will say that McCain's home state will be up for grabs come this November.  McCain's support is luke warm in the state.  People are pissed at how little McCain has done for the state, which is swimming in red ink.  Governor Napolitano is much more popular and will make McCain's life hell during this campaign.  With the combination of Napolitano and Richardson campaigning big for Obama in Arizona and New Mexico, and Colorado swinging left, McCain may have to spend a lot of time and money to hold onto his home state.  This is going to hurt his campaign big time, as he doesn't have the money, nor the organization, to spend so many resources to hold onto something that should be a slam dunk.

    On the highly unreliable and extremely inaccurate bumper sticker poll, Obama is crushing McCain in the Phoenix area.  It should be noted that in 2004 it was all Bush.  Seeing a Kerry sticker was an anomoly.  Not that way so far this cycle, as its all Obama.  A lot of McSame stickers floating around too.  

  •  Colorado goes blue this year (6+ / 0-)

    And hopefully we can say the same here in IN. By the way, where's FEMA again?

    In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

    by alkalinesky on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:06:03 AM PDT

  •  Virginia AND West Virginia will be interesting... (4+ / 0-)

    I think, as I sit right at the state line-- I am looking forward to the challenge!

    Our country can survive war, disease, and poverty... what it cannot do without is justice.

    by mommyof3 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:06:56 AM PDT

    •  Yes, you are on the front line... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mommyof3

      I really think Obama could carry Virginia by concentrating in western
      Virginia, along the line.   That is not normally a strong area for us, and
      any support we Do get there would be unexpected and might therefore
      tip it.   Concentrating on your area also has the advantage that one can
      campaign in West Virginia at the same time.    So I hope it all proves very
      enjoyable for you and that they have sense enough to pay you the attention
      you deserve this year.

      "You can't nice these people to death."-- John Edwards

      by ge0rge on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:43:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  kos (6+ / 0-)

    you left Virginia out of your list of 13, though it's on the map.  Virginia will go blue.  It'll be close, but I feel very good about it.

  •  Great way to check for local voter reg (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueyedace2, CityLightsLover

    opportunities is Obama's Vote for Change program.

    John McCain: Fund Iraq? No problem! Kids Health Insurance? Screw 'em.

    by PeteB2 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:10:28 AM PDT

  •  Obama leads in MI - Kudos to Dean (5+ / 0-)

    and Obama for brokering the delegate compromise.  

    Per Rasumussen, in the first post-MI/Fl compromise poll -- it is now Obama by 3:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

  •  Yup... (5+ / 0-)

     title=

    Obama will be in Kaukauna WI tomorrow, the O-Team knows how to play the 50 state game.

    The lesson of that history is that you must not despair, that if you are right, and you persist, things will change. -Howard Zinn

    by blueyedace2 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:14:06 AM PDT

  •  Remember Nixon (3+ / 0-)

    with his 50-state strategy?  He had to be held up when he reached Alaska because he was so exhausted he couldn't stand or talk.  Kennedy focussed on fewer states, DLC  style, and used his energy more sparingly.  Let's hope Barack doesn't exhaust himself trying to speak in all 50 states.

  •  that map doesn't do Obama's chances justice n/t (0+ / 0-)

    John McCain's priorities: Endless war = Good; Healthcare for children = Waste of money.

    by THEpersonal ISpolitical on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:18:45 AM PDT

  •  How? What is the Dean Scheme articulating? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    Which of the two ways?  1) Capitalize on the Bush mess or 2) What the Democrats have to offer.

    The first is a current temporary abberation and the second is the path to the top.   A 50 State plan can only succeed long term with the latter.

    The first mimics the current failed Republican method of 'running against' with negative campaigning and the like. The second has to be above special interest politics  but that seems core to the Democrat's past approach.

    Obama seems in a good position to articulate that future but the Democrats need more than an 8 year solution.  Who is writing the play book for the future?

  •  It's about time someone invited (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, OHeyeO

    all of America to the party.

  •  Massachussetts? No way. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shpilk, TheUnknown285, ge0rge

    No way I see Mass. being a battleground. If it is, Obama's in serious trouble. Poll numbers must be out of date.

    Call me any ugly name you choose --
    The steel of freedom does not stain.
    -- Langston Hughes

    by TheCrank on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:23:40 AM PDT

  •  It's a case of air war vs. ground war (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    The GOP put all it's eggs in the propaganda basket.  Outside of relying on evangelicals to organize for them, their "revolution" was built on media infrastructure and training a more media-savvy generation of mouthpieces.

    For years we tore our hair out asking ourselves how we could compete on that ground, but Howard Dean and Barack Obama realized what many of us didn't - that social networking could facilitiate meaningful grassroots organizing on a scale never seen before.

    For those who genuinely preferred other candidates - this is why Barack Obama had to be our nominee.  Cause it is not just about this election, but the next dozen elections.  

    The GOP is about to find out that you cannot beat a ground force from the air.  Let's hope they take twice as long regrouping as we did.

    Forget Hillary. It's McCain, people. Focus on McCain!!!

    by snout on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:24:15 AM PDT

  •  Daily Kos sticking its head in the sand? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ge0rge

    Rep. Kucinich introduced a resolution to impeach that should be acted upon today, and yet there is no mention of it on the Recommended list or the main page.  Nor is there criticism in either place of Democrat Steny Hoyer's outrageous response:

    House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) suggested yesterday that engaging in a lengthy debate over impeaching Bush in the waning days of his administration is not a productive use of the House's time. (Washington Post)

    Maybe Mr. Hoyer feels confident of his own re-election when the time comes, but this kind of self-interested cowardice will have an impact on other campaigns this fall when millions of voters, fed up with neither party serving the public interest, will vote for third party candidates. Should Democrats win, nevertheless, why should voters  expect clearly self-interested officials to care about our concerns? Either way, the country and its good people lose.

  •  Fabulous. I'm waiting for word from the Obama (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    peeps to respond to my offer to help in registering new voters (especially African Americans) in NY's neighboring states - particularly Pennsylvania.

    Registering new voters is issue #1 in my estimate.

    Still, we're off to a roaring start

    He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire ::Winston Churchill::

    by Jeremy10036 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:27:13 AM PDT

  •  Visit AK and HI (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky, TheUnknown285

    Obama should make visits to Alaska and Hawaii so that he can truly be a 50-state candidate.

    "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

    by skywaker9 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:28:04 AM PDT

    •  I think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheUnknown285

      he plans to... the Repukes missed the point (of course) when they jumped on his "57 state" stumble (he obviously meant to say 47 states).

      What he was saying that he was only one short of the 48 contiguous, and that he wanted to visit Alaska and Hawaii but his campaign staff told him it was too expensive for too few delegates. That logic might still hold, given that there's very few EV between the two, and not much chance of Hawaii going red or of Alaska going blue. Nevertheless, I think he does still plan on going there. Probably in the dog days, I'd imagine.

    •  He's winning HI easily (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheUnknown285

      Barack has roots there .. I'm sure he'll find an excuse to stop in and say hello.

      "If you want to go quickly, go alone. If you want to go far, go together." We need to go far, quickly.

      by shpilk on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:03:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He's coming to Punchbowl (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vicky

      sometime in the near future, to visit his grandfather's grave, according to news reports.  

  •  The 2012 map (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    If the Repubs don't sort themselves out in a big way and soon, Obama's reelection map could end up looking like 1984 in reverse.

    Dr. Dean lucked out in a way. He always said the 50-state strategy would take time to reap its benefits. He started at the perfect time - the Repubs imploded so horribly that we made significant gains in 2006 despite the strategy being only two years old when Dean said it'd take at least 4 to show benefit. Now he has a candidate who embraces the principle, and has the charisma to make it work.

    As a recent diary pointed out, it's absolutely necessary to spread the blue across the map, since the traditional Dem states are losing EVs due to populations shifting.

  •  This is great (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    The Democrats all but gave up on the south after the Civil Rights legislation over 40 years ago.

    The demographics have changed, the world has changed.  

    As more state by state polls come out, I am astonished as how many traditionally red states that while not ahead, Obama is behind by just single digits.  Considering it is June, he has a long time to close that gap.

    You hook this 50 state strategy together with some other items:

    -Meeting with evangelical leaders yesterday:   When was the last time that a Democratic presidential candidate did that?  I also read that there already are some evangelical groups that have endorsed him.

    -The African American and youth vote:  Hey, did everyone notice, Obama is black!  Wow...lol. (Okay, a little snark.)  There is no doubt that the AA vote is going to be huge and 98% of it is going for Obama in November.   The youth vote as well has been overwhelming this year and is also going to be big for Obama.

    A couple of other things to watch:

    I'm sure that Obama will be taking a trip to visit the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan sometime this summer.  Along with that, he'll probably stop in several other countries.  

    I want to see photos of soldiers cheering him.  I want to see a photo of him at the Western Wall in Jerusalem.  Finally, I can't wait to see the crowds that come out if he stops in places like Berlin, Paris, and London...think there were a lot of people in Portland a couple weeks ago?

    Those all may just be photo ops...but as we know, we can never underestimate the power of image.

    To the GOP: "You have sat here too long for any good you have done. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

    by oxfdblue on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:31:23 AM PDT

  •  I love the smell of Naplm in the morning. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    And nampalm is all the Rethugs are going to be smelling come November.

    Character, in the long run, is the decisive factor in the life of an individual and of nations alike. T. Roosevelt

    by jaf49 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:34:37 AM PDT

  •  KOS just a week ago, we all got an Email down in. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    So. FL from one of the Local Dem organizations down here asking us that we need to house over 115 Obama People from their offices in our own homes.  I was staggered by the number of Obama people already down here even before South Dakota and Montana.  Looking back on how Hillary won Florida in January...she won it totally on name recognition alone.  

  •  Remember the Obama/NAFTA "scandal"? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Uncle Moji

    Seems Canada's current right-wing Conservative government did their best to derail his Primary campaign...and in the Rust Belt may have done just that...with a little help from their American friends.  

    http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/...

    Birds of a feather.

  •  States in play (0+ / 0-)

    There are some problems with the map. First, Obama will take Mass. easily and most likely NH. South Carolina is not in play. Mississippi is not winnable. I live there. The margin may be closer because of heavy African-American turnout, but the turnout required to win is virtually impossible. Whites in MS will vote for McCain in excess of 80%, it's just too much.

  •  Please take AZ out of the RED (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    The Rock MT poll out in May put McCain up by only 11% in May.....

    A lot of Republicans & Libertarians are NOT happy with McCain here in AZ..... for various reasons starting with McCain's attempt to do a take over of the AZ GOP Party at their last officer elections which failed very miserably, his stand on immigration, his stand on any war AND no support for Veterans..... and a big one is that McCain is not showing up to work...

    Many Republicans worked on the Recall McCain effort here.... they are side by side us in protests and as yet..... have not see a single bumper sticker or sign FOR McCain here in AZ....

    Arizona is in play!

    •  Additional Info (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      shpilk, TheUnknown285

      McCain Calls Arizona a Swing State

      PHOENIX--Sen. John McCain’s big struggle to energize a suspicious conservative Republican base and attract crucial independent voters is a national fight that encompasses his home state of Arizona. Despite representing the state in Congress for 26 years, McCain is now confronting a resurgent state Democratic Party and a burgeoning number of unpredictable independent voters.

      While Arizona Republicans are bogged down with nasty infighting and a slumping number of registered voters, Arizona Democrats are gaining voters daily. Powered by Sen. Barack Obama’s voter registration drive, Democratic voter registration is up 2.8 percent in the last year and Democrats are poised to gain control of a majority of the state’s House congressional delegation for the first time in decades.

      The biggest shift in the Arizona political landscape has been in the number of voters registering as independents -- up 7.6 percent in the last year. Arizona is now essentially a tri-party state -- Republicans make up 38 percent of registered voters; Democrats, 34 percent, and independents, 27 percent.

      McCain Acknowledges He May Lose Arizona

      McCain and his advisers have lumped Arizona, the Republican Party presumptive nominee's home state, among what it is considering swing states. In other words, McCain feels he could lose Arizona to Obama, an admission that squares with recent surprising polling data.

      In Arizona, and particularly among his home district residents, Sen. John McCain's popularity compared to Sen. Barack Obama's is declining fairly rapidly, according to the most recent poll.

      Poll numbers from Lord show Shadegg "vulnerable"

      The poll also showed that Sen. John McCain has a slimmer-than-expected margin over newly-crowned Democratic opponent Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), capturing 48 percent to 43 percent if the contest were held today. Pres. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 by 58 percent.

      •  That has to burn his cookies (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TheUnknown285, Uncle Moji

        That's McGovern territory, not being able to carry one's own home State.

        Could Utah play the role of Massachusetts [and DC] for McCain?
        That would be incredible.

        "If you want to go quickly, go alone. If you want to go far, go together." We need to go far, quickly.

        by shpilk on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:11:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Regionalism Tells Obama to Work Tennessee (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chadlupkes, Vicky, TheUnknown285

    The most obvious fact seen when looking at election maps is that candidate preferences are regional. Candidates are popular in continuous regions stretching across counties and broad areas of the country. Because politics, like any complex identification of large numbers of people, is a tribal exercise, bound primarily by tribalism's rules, and only tweaked into place by the "meaning" of membership in one tribe or another.

    You can see from the map in this story that Obama has the usual coastal states (including the Great Lakes but excluding the Gulf, as usual), with Florida as usual undecided (because that state can't do anything right). NJ, MI and WI will vote for Obama, despite temporary alienation after Clinton whipping them into feeling "disenfranchised" or otherwise loyal to her subsides with every news cycle.

    What's striking about today's map is that Republican territory has a huge channel of "swing" plowed through it. Part of that is because smack in the middle of traditionally Republican territory is Obama's main stronghold, Illinois ("im in ur base, killing ur d00dz"). Which is in turn America's meetingplace of the coasts, with their higher diversity, communication and benefits from "embracing the outside", with the more isolated interior, which is more homogeneous from braindrain and repression, more monoculture in every way. That center of gravity so strongly Obama is raising the average Obama gravity in nearby states, which are flipping towards Obama. And, by virtue of geography, dividing the South from the Rockies, into two separate "Republican islands".

    That is the very best way to hold states in your tribe. Republicans have long used the Midwest to split the East/West (and Lakes) coasts, which diminishes their regional power. But now Democrats' Illinois splits Republicans' Midwest, and so splits their Southeast from their Rockies. Which diminishes those two regions' power, especially to flip nearby regions. Democrats should emphasize that layout.

    It might be possible to split the rockies at Wyoming, which seems ready to elect Democrats (Cheney is really a Texan), especially under the influence of a Democratic-trending Idaho. Utah will remain Republicans' last mountain stronghold, at least until the state inevitably diversifies (or dies of incest). Arizona itself could become Democratic, of course after McCain runs his course, and its geriatric population fills with more aging Democrats who flood the younger demographics who increasingly move there. But since the "Mountain West" is trending Democratic overall, though not fast enough to matter in November 2008, that region has no more strategic attraction than it has for Democrats for the past decade. Which is to say that the "50 state strategy" is worth maintaining to win it, but not enough to get excited about turning this year.

    The South, though, is the place to hit, hard. It's the most Republican part of the country left (except Utah), but that calls for the successful strategy of "hit them where they're strong". Because if one state can be won, that weak link weakens the entire "strong region", and leaves them with no strength anywhere (except Utah). That weak link is Tennessee.

    If Obama can focus his primary "Red to Blue" effort on turning over Tennessee, he will split the "Republican South" in half. It would be the narrowest split, with "bridges" around it from Arkansas to Kentucky via Missouri. But even Missouri is already a swing, and likely to go Obama. Of course, in Obama's swing state strategy, probably his #1 priority, Missouri must figure prominently. But in his "Red to Blue" strategy, work in Tennessee will make Missouri work even more productive. Further, Illinois strength can help force changes in nearly neighboring Tennessee, even if Obama's IL strength is mostly in the north of that state. And of course Tennessee isn't that Red, for that long. Al Gore could probably help turn his state back, redeeming his loss of it in his own 2000 election.

    Turning Tennessee Democratic could even help recover Arkansas for Democrats. That state features Huckabee now, but of course it also produced Bill and Hillary Clinton. A longer term "Blue Arkansas" strategy would also help keep the "Huckabee 2012" threat reduced. If the Clintons turned their powers and networks back to recovering their own state for their party, they could produce a lasting legacy they've let slip away with their failed primary efforts.

    Such a new split would leave Republicans mortally crippled. They'd have to subsist on 3 different fronts: the Rockies, "Greater Texas" and "Central Appalachia". Even in the Rockies their days are numbered (except Utah). Texas itself is trending Democratic, perhaps even in November 2008 - which bodes ill for the brief Republican era in Louisiana. And even Appalachia will probably be reduced to just "West Virginia", after Obama turns his understanding of its "bitter cling" into dragging its disadvantaged into the modern age. WV itself might even find itself properly Democratic again, after the long Byrd era finally winds down, if that Rockefeller fief is pressured to do more than just exploit its serfs for senator votes.

    Tennessee is a key to a winning strategy. That Obama is well positioned to exploit for victory. A victory in November, for his entire term(s), and for generations to come. Now is the moment to strike, and Tennessee is the place.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 08:59:43 AM PDT

  •  beyond 50 states (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shpilk, sundancekid11, TheUnknown285

    We need a 3113 county strategy.  It's not something that can be funded by the DNC or the Obama campaign, but it should be on our list of wish fulfillments.

    http://left.wikia.com/...

    If Democrats have a pre-911 view of the world, Republicans have a pre-July 4th view of the world.

    by chadlupkes on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:00:22 AM PDT

  •  This is a vital shift in the way (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky

    the Democratic Party works, and we have one guy to thank for this .. and that's Howard Dean.

    It's a a beautiful thing.

    https://www.democrats.org/...

    This ex-Independent is back in the Democratic Party.

    Dean and Obama speak for me, and it's a good feeling knowing that they do.

    "If you want to go quickly, go alone. If you want to go far, go together." We need to go far, quickly.

    by shpilk on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:01:14 AM PDT

  •  LA and AR are viable as target states (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky, TheUnknown285

    McCain got a meager 67K votes in the GOP primary in Louisiana.  Obama got ~200K, Clinton 100K -- Louisiana is certainly a viable target if Florida is.

    Arkanasas is a similiar case.  Completely viable target.

    I'm not saying we can win both or either, but McCain's support in both states is painfully anemic -- my opinion is a that a strong campaign could flip either state -- more easily than we will flip FL anyway.

    I say put the dang boots on the ground.  Louisiana is NOT a gimme for McCain.

  •  and while Clinton might not have ever booted (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, sundancekid11, TheUnknown285

    Howard out, it's quite clear there's little love lost between the two.

    I don't think the Deans and the Clintons get along too well.

    "If you want to go quickly, go alone. If you want to go far, go together." We need to go far, quickly.

    by shpilk on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:12:50 AM PDT

  •  Mississippi Poll had Obama up 6 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky, TheUnknown285

    It should be yellow.

    •  MS (0+ / 0-)

      I'd love to see the poll, and I'd love to believe it's possible. But I've lived there all my life. The demographics aren't in his favor. It just won't work. Whites make up 67% of the population and vote more than 80% Republican. I realize the excitement, but it's more important to be realistic and think about the real states we could turn: Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, maybe Virginia. If he wins a southern state it will be Virginia and/or Florida and that's it.

  •  if blacks, gays, educated people, struggling (4+ / 0-)

    middle class people, people appalled by Bush/McCain's war policies, people appalled by Bush/McCain's tax policies, people afraid of losing their homes, people worried about the cost of health insurance and the quality of health care, people who are concerned about the environment -- you get the picture --

    -- if all these people come together,  I think we'll have one hell of a 50-state strategy.

    •  If they don't obey the media's propaganda saying: (0+ / 0-)

      "Hey struggling middle class people, you must vote for the status quo party no matter how much you are suffering, because you normal people don't want to be in the same party as those weird and awful blacks and gays, right?"

      The only place where Republicans are anywhere close to responsible is in the dictionary.

      by DemDachshund on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:24:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  After 8 years of GOP (0+ / 0-)

        given the nightmare called Iraq with over 4,000 killed soldiers, tens of thousands of maimed soldiers, the economy, crashed stock market, crashed dollar, lost jobs, outrageous gas prices, unforgivable Katrina, lost homes, more uninsured Americans than ever before, Abramoff, the Plame outing, the obvious GOP culture of corruption and  incompetence, one would think the GOP rank and file voter would wake up and smelled their rotted coffee.

  •  As goes one Dakota.... (0+ / 0-)

    Are the Dakotas very different from each other politically?  Is SD really much more conservative?  I know the map is made to reflect actual polls and I respect that, but intuitively I can't help but think that if one Dakota is winnable the other must be too.

    I grew up in northern Iowa, so while I know that neither Dakota likes to be lumped in with the other as one big state, I also know that the cultures and demographics seem quite similar.  

    The only place where Republicans are anywhere close to responsible is in the dictionary.

    by DemDachshund on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:22:35 AM PDT

  •  The Barr Effect (0+ / 0-)

    I am outright giddy that a prominent conservative will be running as a third party. My personal electoral map has Obama winning Colorado, NM, NV, Montana, Iowa, Indiana, VA, NC & Georgia. I also have him winning Texas if Richardson or a favorite of the latino community to lock up the %47 of the total population (could be larger if they turn out in larger numbers) minority population. Places to watch are definitely Georgia where 500K blacks remain unregistered & Barr has the potential to split the white vote, Mississippi, where %36 of the population is black & Arkansas where we know Obama will be using the Clintons. I have seen polls where McCain is losing Texas & a few other red states if there is a conservative 3rd party--can't remember where I saw it (Tucker? Is his show even on anymore?)

    Last but not least, Obama's VP will be former Senator Bob Graham of FL--repeatedly elected in swing state, foreign policy experience & a white boy. Obama has Bush  & Clinton qualities in that deep down he is a calculating figure. FL's 27 electoral votes alone would give us a Dem Presidency.

  •  red states are talk radio states, blue dog dems (0+ / 0-)

    are talk radio dems

    obama/dean/dems would do well to monitor the local talk radio stations in those states- those are the centers of power of the GOP.

    that is where the pressure is generated on GOP reps to keep them in line to require Dems to reach supermajority. that is where the groundwork for the swiftboating is done BEFORE it goes big in the rest of the media. that is where the GOP creates the denial and excuses that enable the fantasy they are the mainstream. it is that uncontested repetition to 50-70 MIL that largely determines what is and what isn't acceptable in the rest of the media- not the NYTimes and the Wash Post, not the cable TV news shows.

    obama ought to put money into publishing searchable transcripts of the main national and local blowhards in every major state so his supporters know when to boycott and picket their local stations when they lie about their candidates and causes.

    otherwise there may be some very surprised Americans in Nov.

  •  Massachusetts is NOT battleground (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Uncle Moji, The Jester

    Good lord, it went for MCGOVERN.  OK, it didn't go for Mondale,
    but get real.  It has a black GOVERNOR.  It is NOT like there is a positive
    probability that the Democratic party could lose this state in November.
    It has ZERO Republicans in Congress!
    I realize you are just reporting the state of the polls, but really, it is just
    too soon after the Clinton battle.  Wait a month.

    "You can't nice these people to death."-- John Edwards

    by ge0rge on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 09:40:27 AM PDT

  •  Please explain what.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Uncle Moji

    braindead fucking moron has Massachusetts in YELLOW?

    There is absolutely ZERO chance that McDipshit can even get within 10 points of Obama in MA.

    If "the polls" are telling people this, then you seriously need to question the varacity of "the polls" period.

    I live here, and even in my slightly republican town, there is NO WAY they will be electing a Republican this year, absolutely NO WAY.

    So fix the map please.

  •  All politics is local (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Libby Shaw

    The above is a quote by Former Speaker of the House Tip ONeil D-MA that points to the improtance of the Obama/Dean 50 state effort. It also reflects the related commitment to Grass roots fund raising and organizing.

    For too long "Red" regions, states and/or districts have been abandonded to the Rethugs.  There are "blue" or "purple" pockets everywhere. They need to be nourished and grown; not abandoned by the national party.

    That is the key to a lasting Democratic Majority.

    •  I could not agree more (0+ / 0-)

      Texas, for example, has huge blue pockets in the large urban areas of Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio.   It is only a question of time b/f Texas flips back to blue. Ordinary Texans are completely fed up with W. and all of our equally incompetent crooks in the Texas GOP.

  •  a true 50 state election (0+ / 0-)

    As much as I don't like it we have to face the fact that some states matter more than others, the way the game is played today.  If you live in CA or GA for example, the results of the election are pretty much predetermined and your vote may as well not count.  It is great that there are more swing states in this election, but most states still aren't.

    However, something simple (though risky) can be done to change that.  If Obama were to announce that he would not accept the presidency unless he wins a plurality of the popular vote, that would change the game.  He could challenge McCain to make the same pledge.  If you lose the popular vote, you ask your delegates to vote for the other guy when the electoral college meets.

    This will energize the base of both parties across the country, no matter where you live.  Since every vote counts, a close election could end up mired in massive recounts, but democracy is not always cheap and easy.

  •  The GOP must be routed across the board! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Libby Shaw
    1. attention to the down-ballot races that will ultimately decide whether the Obama Agenda will see the light of day.

    This is the make or break component of the election.  The GOP has proven that they are more than capable of calling the shots from a minority position in the Congress.  Only if the we are able to thin out these miscreants will we really be able to get our country moving forward again and have our government resume its role as the protectors of the citizens rather than the corporations!

    --- Democratic mantra for '08: It's the EVERYTHING, stupid!

    by KingBolete on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 11:21:11 AM PDT

  •  posting my first comment here... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky

    I am very excited to hear about the 50 state strategy.  Not only can we win with it, we can build some mighty strong roots that will serve us well after Obama is elected. And we will need those roots! Here's why:

    We will need them in order to support undertaking something truly historic:  the repair AND the remaking of this American democracy.  

    The issues are serious and depressing, as we all know:  the abuse of our constitution, a renewal of because-we-said-so imperialism (pre-emptive war!?), institutionalizing injustice within our judicial system, ruining the system of checks and balances... on and on.  

    However, to keep depression at bay, I always try to remember that the Chinese word for "crisis" is the same as "opportunity" (or so I have heard).  

    And this is what I think our opportunity is: we can actually IMPROVE our democracy because of this crisis.  A good "diagnosis" of how and why this all happened can lead (if we let it) to a "treatment plan" for our democracy that can result in a healthier, more up-to-date democracy. One that will be more immune to those who want to screw the system for their own ends. We need to protect our country against these parasites. We need a good, modern immunization against our modern evil-doers!  

    But first we need to know exactly what happened.  We need a diagnosis (impeachment hearing would help, duh!). But even if that doesn't happen, we have so many brilliant minds out there that have already analyzed how the "evil ones" rigged the system. (And we have so many brilliant ideas that can improve our system of government!) We have learned a lot in eight years.

    Generally speaking, I think we could say what we have learned falls into one of two catagories: 1) human moral failings 2) institutional weaknesses.  

    An example of the first category, moral failings, is that most of our democratic leaders in Congress are simply not morally developed enough to come up with a way to fight for what they know in their intellectual minds to be right. Thus they end up enabling the "evil ones" and their "evil ways".  It's like all enabling, all the time in Congress!  A real problem. And clearly human moral development is one of the most complex issues on the planet and there is no easy fix. So that always will be constant struggle that we all have to work on.      

    However the second category, "institutional weaknesses", can be fixed more readily.  Some weak spots in the system allow for the damage to occur in the first place, some make it hard to fix a problem once it occurs, some make it hard for leaders NOT to enable. Lots of smart people have great ideas about how to fix all these weaknesses (think campaign finance reform etc...)  We have no shortage of brains. We can improve our system!

    But in order to get the ball rolling, we need some courageous citizens to elect couragous leaders. And in order to get moral leaders elected, we need institutional change.  A conundrum? An impossible situation?  No.  Just life.  We need to weave together the two threads (moral, institutional)and come up with something.  That is our responsiblity.
       
    An example: the fact that Congress doesn't have a solid, productive method for impeaching a president is an institutional problem.  We can't start impeachments unless the Attorney General gets to make the first move (correct me if I am wrong here). So, it is easy to rig the system: Get a corrupt AG, no impeachment. But we need moral leadership to change the rules in Congress... thus the two threads.

    Here is another example.  

    Randi Rhodes interviewed John Dean yesterday and he talked about some structural problems. And he said something really important!  He reminded us that Obama is on record as saying something that no presidential candidate has ever said before(paraphrasing): "If I am president and it is discovered that a past administration has committed crimes I will procecute." (anyone have the quote?) The moral/institutional pattern throughout history is for the new administration to ignore any possible crimes committed by the previous administration.  

    But now we possibly have the moral fortitude (if Obama is elected and keeps his word) in combination with an accurate institutional diagnosis (yes, we need more details but we know enough to begin prosecution, right?). Now THAT is an opportunity!

    An opportunity for what? Putting some criminals in jail?  No!  Much more than that. If we have those really strong roots, we can go much further!  If we can elect a morally developed president (guess who) AND we can elect lots of morally developed congress members (50 state strategy) AND grow those strong roots (that's us!) AND get an accurate diagnosis (thank you scholars) THEN we can not only prosecute and put some assholes in jail, but much more importantly we can start repairing and REBUILDING our democracy. In other words, make some real changes. Remodel our house, our democracy.  

    Out of crisis, opportunity. But first we need to really work on those roots, and the 50-state strategy seems like the ticket.  

     

  •  I live in Arizona but I will still vote Obama (0+ / 0-)

    and hope he gets delagates for the elector college. Arizona is so stupidly in the RED! It is changing though so there is hope someday!

  •  YIPPIE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (0+ / 0-)
  •  Hawaii Democrats aiding GOTV in Nevada, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky

    specifically targeting former Hawaii residents with the Obama/Hawaii connection, which has surprising legs. The estimation is that this could amount to a 9,000-12,000 vote influence, which, while small, in a close election in NV could be the decider. Also Hawaii Dems are looking at WA & OR which have a fair number of former Hawaii folks.

    The Republican Party in Hawaii is making pitiful mewling cries about how Obama shouldn't take Hawaii for granted and Hawaii could go for McSame.  They are, apparently, all on acid.

  •  I love the way this (0+ / 0-)

    map looks.  The only way it could look better is if it was completely blue!! Well, taking into account all those other parties, the map would also look good purple.

    Good news from Michigan.  Now show us Florida.

    Obama 08!!

    McCain's economic adviser helped UBS like he helped Enron

    by mscharizmaa on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 03:35:09 PM PDT

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