Some good news from Gallup this morning: women are moving towards Obama in fairly dramatic numbers. Before I continue, one caveat - this is all good news, but please don't let poll numbers foster complacency. This campaign is going to take work and money and nothing can be taken for granted. A lot can happen in the next 5 months. Now, on with the analysis:
Since Hillary Clinton decided to concede the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama last week, Obama has established a lead over Republican John McCain in general-election polling. Obama's gains have come more from women than men, though he has picked up among both groups in recent days.
Obama's lead among women has now expanded from five percentage points to 13, while his deficit among men has shrunk from six points to two.
What's the cause of this shift? Clinton's exit of course:
While campaigning for president, Clinton demonstrated an especially strong appeal to women. She led McCain by 52% to 40% in her final full week as a candidate, exactly equal to the average since mid-March. By comparison, Obama held only an average 47% to 42% lead over McCain among women during the same time span. At least for now, he seems to be matching Clinton's performance among women versus McCain, given his current 13-point lead among female voters.
For all the hand-wringing amongst pundits about the angry, bitter feelings so many women feel about Clinton - the truth is women in this country are a lot more intelligent than these pundits are giving them credit for. They know what's at stake in this election. Once they learn the truth about McCain's record on women's issues, particularly abortion rights, their support for Obama will firm up even more.
More good news comes from another key Clinton constituency group: older women.
One of Clinton's core groups of supporters during the nomination phase of the campaign was older women. During the last few days of her active candidacy, Clinton led McCain by 51% to 41% among women aged 50 and older, while Obama trailed McCain among this group, 46% to 43%.
Since Clinton suspended her campaign, older women's vote preferences have shifted toward Obama, so that he now enjoys a six-point advantage over McCain.
Look at this shift:
Once it becomes clear that Obama's the only candidate with a clear plan to save social security and improve health care, these numbers should also firm.
Gallup does, however, contain an important cautionary note:
Obama's challenge in the general-election campaign will be to bring core Democratic groups that did not strongly support him in the primaries -- women, voters with less formal education, and conservative Democrats -- back into the fold. He appears to be already doing that among women. However, it is not clear whether this is just a temporary rally in support for him upon clinching the nomination, or whether he will be able to sustain a high level of support from female voters for the duration of the campaign. (emphasis mine)
Indeed, this is an early bump, but there is a long road ahead with a lot of twists and turns. The best way to ensure this bump lasts (and improves) is work, work, work. Get out there, fund this campaign, mobilize and take action.