So I open up my daily email from Mike Allen of Politico, about his Politico Playbook, and read the following:
The Hill -- GOP MEMBERS NOT PUBLICLY BACKING OR ENDORSING McCAIN: Sen. Chuck Hagel (Neb.), Sen. Jeff Sessions (Ala.), Rep. John Doolittle (Calif.), Rep. Randy Forbes (Va.), Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (Md.), Rep. Virgil Goode (Va.), Rep. Walter Jones (N.C.), Rep. Tim Murphy (Pa.), Rep. Ron Paul (Texas), Rep. John Peterson (Pa.), Rep. Ted Poe (Texas), Rep. Todd Tiahrt (Kan.), Rep. Dave Weldon (Fla.), Rep. Frank Wolf (Va.).
The Hill -- GOP MEMBERS WHO WOULD NOT COMMENT: Sen. John Barrasso (Wyo.), Sen. Larry Craig (Idaho), Rep. Rob Bishop (Utah), Rep. Terry Everett (Ala.), Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (N.J.), Rep. Elton Gallegly (Calif.), Rep. David Hobson (Ohio), Rep. Timothy Johnson (Ill.), Rep. Doug Lamborn (Colo.), Rep. Buck McKeon (Calif.), Rep. John Mica (Fla.), Rep. Gary Miller (Calif.), Rep. Jerry Moran (Kan.), Rep. Sue Myrick (N.C.), Rep. Mark Souder (Ind.), Rep. Greg Walden (Ore.), Rep. Don Young (Alaska).
And against this, we are worried about Joe Lieberman (as if he is a Democrat, right?), and Dan Boren (who will vote for Obama and not endorse him?).
Follow me below the fold for a few thoughts reading those two lists inspired, at least in my warped mind.
Of course, several of these names are meaningless, as they are lame ducks, not running for reelection: after all, would McCain even want endorsements from John Doolittle or Larry Craig. And Wayne Gilchrest, having lost his primary, is also a lame duck in a state McCain has no chance of carrying. Still, if perhaps the most prominent moderate Republican, one with an incredibly positive record on environmental issues, is unwilling to endorse McCain, how might that undercut McCain's supposed appeal to moderates and independents?
Of course, for several on this list, starting with Gilchrest and Walter Jones of NC, McCain's continued hawkishness on Iraq (and Iran) is sufficient reason to refuse to support him. In Gilchrest's case I note two things about his background (1) he taught social studies and hence has some historical understanding, and (2) he is an infantry Marine with multiple decorations (including Purple Heart and Bronze Star) from his service as a platoon leader in Vietnam. Somehow I sense that both of these, especially the latter, are a strong influence in his opposing the bellicosity of the rhetoric McCain spews.
Chuck Hagel is also a lame duck, and is very much on record in his opposition to this administration's policies on Iraq and related subject. And I have little doubt that McCain's refusal to support the Webb GI Bill proposal, for which Hagel was a co-sponsor, further exacerbated the differences between the two senators.
And we know that Ron Paul opposes McCain, and his supporters are continuing to try to disrupt McCain's coronation at state level conventions, and may also try to do so in St. Paul.
But what of some of the others? Some are people facing serious challenges to retaining their seats: Virgil Goode, Don Young, possibly Frank Wolf. But others seem in no jeopardy - Jeff Sessions, Buck McKeon, Rodney Frelinghuysen, Rep. Randy Forbes - and one wonder's why either the opposition or the reluctance to endorse McCain? The two lists represent a substantial chunk of the Republican membership of the 110th Congress. And we know that McCain is not the favorite of a number of Republican senators, with the names Pete Domenici and Chuck Grassley immediately coming to mind as Senators who have been totally turned off by McCain's previous actions and words.
Markos recently noted his surprise when at a joint appearance Simon Rosenberg raised the real possibility of McCain being replaced on the ticket. Now, while it is true that there is no role for superdelegates in the Republican party as we have them, there are more than a few Republicans worried that McCain's campaign has the potential of serious damage down-ballot, and are worried about the possibilities that his performance could actually be worse than what the generic polling data indicates, even though at least at present McCain significantly outperforms the generic data. They see the misstatements, the disorganization, and worry that at some point the press narrative might tip - instead of being friendly and giving McCain a pass on his bloops, the narrative at least implicitly raises questions about McCain's readiness for high office? Could enough stories about not remembering his own legislation or statements he has previously made on the record be the start of a discussion of wheter he is too old, or lacks the "necessities" of meeting the demands of the office?
Democrats are right to take nothing for granted. And McCain has over the past 8+ years worked the refs (press) in a fashion of which John Wooden and Dean Smith would have been proud. But the framework of this election seems very different. The furor over Scotty's recent book might also contribute to a press that is more skeptical of the kinds of narratives that have been successful in the past, even as the media really wants a competitive race.
Obama will take some hits. Having gotten Johnson, the right-wing is now taking after Holder, hoping to take him down or at least damage him enough to indirectly weaken Obama: look at who he uses for vetters, how can he say he is doing a different kind of politics? They have little choice, because if the electorate continues to believe in general that Obama represents something different, if he is seen as acceptable as a commander in chief, then McCain's ability to counter the general orientation to wanting a change of leadership is significantly weakened.
And without strong and unified party support, McCain risks getting blown out.
So, while I take nothing for granted, certainly not this far out, before VP selections and convention speeches and joint appearances (whether in town halls or formal debates), I am encouraged by the apparent disunity in the Republican party, something that now seems far worse than the worst of our divisions during the primaries. Some of Clinton's voters are still being obstreperous, but almost all of the Congressionals who were supporting her have now moved to supporting Obama. Contrast that with the two lists above the fold, and take heart.
And now, let's all get out there and work like hell - A blowout is possible, but I am greedy - I want to contest every single state, every single House and Senate seat, every state and local race. This cycle has the potential to be transforming, but only if we never let up or take anything for granted.
Peace.