Here’s how the Dems can win a filibuster-proof 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. It’s not going to be easy, but it can happen.
Right now, there are 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 2 Independents (Sanders-VT & Lieberman-CT) who both caucus with the Dems.
In November of 2008, there will be 33 Senate seats up for election AND one special election - to replace the retired Trent Lott-MS. For the Dems to achieve a 60 seat super-majority they will need to win 9 seats that are now held by a Republican. Here are the 9 seats that are in reach:
Ted Stevens (R-AK) - this guy will probably be in jail by Nov '08 and he has a competent challenger in Mark Begich.
Wayne Allard (R-CO) - he has wisely announced that he will not seek a return to the Senate. It's hard to be a Republican and have any self-respect these days - Allard chose the high road. The Dem candidate, Mark Udall, is already favored to win over hapless GOP bumbler Bob Schaffer.
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) - the last time the Senate minority leader was not returned to office by his home state was all the way back in... 2004. Remember Democrat Tom Daschle? In 2008, McConnell is going to lose sticking to his menu of politically fatal Bush policies: endless war in Iraq, tax cuts for the richest 1% of Americans and wiping your ass with the U.S. Constitution. Bruce Lunsford isn't perfect, but has the deep pockets to make a serious run.
Norm Coleman (R-MN) - former SNL cast member and current Air America host Al Franken has an uphill battle here, but with financial support from the national party and the grassroots supporters who love him, Franken could pull the upset.
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) - she is the favorite to win here, but she has alot to worry about. If african-american voters flock to the polls in November they would most likely choose Dem Kay Hagan while they're in the voting booth. If so, this race won't even be close. I actually kind of like Mrs. Dole, but this is a bad year to be a Republican. Think Nov 2006, but an even bigger "thumpin".
Pete Domenici (R-NM) - another GOP Senator who just couldn't look himself in the mirror anymore and decided to retire. Tom Udall, the first cousin of Mark Udall (see Colorado above), is favored to win already.
Gordon Smith (R-OR) - I've always wondered why a solidly blue state like Oregon would have a Republican in one of it's Senate seats. Well, it's mostly because this guy makes himself out to be a moderate. With the right campaign strategy to expose the real Gordon Smith and (again) financial support from the DSCC, Democrat Jeff Merkley could steal this seat.
John Warner (R-VA) - another GOP retiree. Will be a close race, but Republican Jim Gilmore could be undermined by a strong campaign by Dem Mark Warner and the surge of votes that would come with the increased turnout that soon-to-be President Obama is going to bring to all Democrats on all tickets.
Roger Wicker (R-MS) - this is the special election. Wicker was appointed to this seat when Trent Lott retired off to his Neo-Nazi retirement community. Now Wicker has to win a full election to keep it. This is going to be a close race, but much like other candidates from southern states, an increase in african-american turnout could bring a win to Ronnie Musgrove.
sources:
daily kos - brownsox
realclear politics senate poll averages
senate guru