Hello! This is my first diary! I decided to crunch some numbers and find out how Obama can win Virginia using White and Black turnout. Please comment on my first diary entry!
I will being with the 2004 Presidential Election as a baseline.
White AA Other(Latino, Asian, etc.)
Kerry 32% 87% 40%
Bush 68% 13% 60%
Note #1: I could not find Latino, Asian, etc. breakdowns. I will assume that the 2004 Virginia numbers were similar to ones across the country.
Note #2: I used 2004 CNN exit polls. They were very close to the actual results.
2004 General Election Voting Composition
White: 72%
AA: 21%
Other: 7%
Fast forward to 2008 Virginia Democratic Primary.
2008 Virginia Democratic Primary Voting Composition
White: 61%
AA: 30%
Other: 9%
I do not think that 2008 Virginia General Election turnout will be 30% Black (though not impossible). However, suppose it increases around 4% compared to 2004 to around 25%. Additionally, assume that the "other" turnout is 7% and the white turnout is 68%.
If we took a conservative approach and gave Obama only 90% of the black vote, and only 50% of the "other" vote (which I know is incredibly low), then Obama would only need 36% of the white vote to get 50%. (Kerry got 32% of the White vote)
White AA Other(Latino, Asian, etc.)
Obama 36% 90% 50%
McCain 64% 10% 50%
Total
Obama: 50.48%
McCain: 49.52%
If we assign more optimistic numbers for Obama in terms of the black and "other" vote, and subtract 1% of the white vote, then....
White AA Other(Latino, Asian, etc.)
Obama 35% 93% 65%
McCain 65% 7& 35%
Total
Obama: 51.6%
McCain: 48.4%
I understand why the Obama team thinks Virginia is a battleground state and why Virginia is trending blue in recent elections.
Note: This diary does not account for the regional aspects of Virginia. I want to do a follow up diary, but I would like your comments regarding my first ever entry! Thanks everyone!
GO OBAMA!