Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/9-11. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Inhofe (R) 53
Rice (D) 31
Inhoffe over 50 percent, Rice is 22 points back. Looks rough. But check this out:
If the election for US Senate were held today, would you to reelect Jim Inhofe, would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Inhofe?
Reelect 39
Consider someone else 23
Replace 28
That's a remarkably low re-elect number. So what is keeping Rice down? Name ID.
Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Andrew Rice?
Not sure: 52
Less than half of Oklahoma voters know who Rice is, but over 50 percent will consider voting for someone not named Inhoffe.
So yeah, this race is currently decidedly third-tier, but if Rice can get the resources to get his name ID up, we could make a run for it. Perhaps this is what the DSCC saw when they decided to send up to 10 staffers to Oklahoma to help with this race.
Another good sign are the Obama-McCain numbers:
McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 38
This is a state that Bush won by 32 points in 2004, 66-34. That same year, Tom Coburn beat Democrat Brad Carson by 12, so Democrats can certainly outperform the national ticket. Carson did so by 20 points. So if Obama can keep it close, ticket splitters could certainly put Rice over the top. Tough? Obviously. Likely? Nope. But it's within the realm of possibility.
Full cross-tabs below the fold.
On the web: Andrew Rice for Senate
OKLAHOMA POLL RESULTS - JUNE 2008
The Research 2000 Oklahoma Poll was conducted from June 9 through June 11, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
Sample Figures
Men 290 48%
Women 310 52%
Dem 258 43%
Rep 246 41%
Ind 96 16%
18-29 113 19%
30-44 181 30%
45-59 161 27%
60+ 145 24%
East 110 interviews
OK City 176 interviews
Tulsa 169 interviews
West 145 interviews
Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Jim Inhofe?
Very Very No
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Sure
All 19% 28% 28% 17% 8%
Men 21% 30% 27% 17% 5%
Women 17% 26% 29% 17% 11%
Dem 7% 17% 42% 26% 8%
Rep 31% 41% 13% 8% 7%
Ind 19% 27% 29% 16% 9%
18-29 16% 24% 32% 20% 8%
30-44 22% 31% 25% 15% 7%
45-59 20% 30% 26% 16% 8%
60+ 18% 26% 29% 17% 10%
Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Andrew Rice?
Very Very No
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Sure
All 8% 24% 11% 5% 52%
Men 7% 23% 13% 6% 51%
Women 9% 25% 9% 4% 53%
Dem 13% 38% 5% 3% 41%
Rep 4% 10% 19% 7% 60%
Ind 5% 23% 7% 5% 60%
18-29 11% 28% 8% 3% 50%
30-44 6% 22% 13% 7% 52%
45-59 6% 22% 12% 6% 54%
60+ 9% 25% 10% 4% 52%
If the election for US Senate were held today, would you to reelect Jim Inhofe, would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Inhofe?
Reelect Consider Replace Not Sure
All 39% 23% 28% 10%
Men 42% 25% 25% 8%
Women 36% 21% 31% 12%
Dem 11% 23% 51% 15%
Rep 69% 21% 4% 6%
Ind 35% 25% 30% 10%
18-29 36% 25% 32% 7%
30-44 42% 21% 24% 13%
45-59 40% 22% 26% 12%
60+ 38% 24% 31% 7%
If the election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for Andrew Rice, the Democrat, or Jim Inhofe, the Repblican?
Inhofe Rice Und
All 53% 31% 16%
Men 57% 30% 13%
Women 49% 32% 19%
Dem 22% 62% 16%
Rep 85% 5% 10%
Ind 54% 15% 31%
18-29 48% 34% 18%
30-44 57% 28% 15%
45-59 56% 30% 14%
60+ 51% 32% 17%
East 55% 29% 16%
OK City 54% 30% 16%
Tulsa 48% 35% 17%
West 57% 28% 15%
If the election for President were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat, or John McCain the Repblican?
McCain Obama Und
All 52% 38% 10%
Men 56% 36% 8%
Women 46% 44% 10%
Dem 20% 70% 10%
Rep 84% 7% 9%
Ind 55% 33% 12%
18-29 48% 43% 9%
30-44 56% 34% 10%
45-59 54% 35% 11%
60+ 50% 40% 10%
East 54% 36% 10%
OK City 54% 37% 9%
Tulsa 46% 43% 11%
West 56% 34% 10%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
Approve Disapprove Not Sure
All 40% 56% 4%
Men 42% 55% 3%
Women 38% 57% 5%
Dem 11% 88% 1%
Rep 71% 23% 6%
Ind 39% 56% 5%
18-29 36% 61% 3%
30-44 44% 52% 4%
45-59 42% 53% 5%
60+ 39% 58% 3%
Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Andrew Rice?
Very Very No
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Sure
All 8% 24% 11% 5% 52%
Men 7% 23% 13% 6% 51%
Women 9% 25% 9% 4% 53%
Dem 13% 38% 5% 3% 41%
Rep 4% 10% 19% 7% 60%
Ind 5% 23% 7% 5% 60%
18-29 11% 28% 8% 3% 50%
30-44 6% 22% 13% 7% 52%
45-59 6% 22% 12% 6% 54%
60+ 9% 25% 10% 4% 52%