The latest presidential election poll for Nevada was release today. McCain leads Obama, 44% to 42% with a margin of error of 4%.
Details of the poll were covered by Paleo but I want to share some insight on why I KNOW OBAMA WILL WIN NEVADA!!!
The Las Vegas Review-Journal, the printed Fox News of Nevada, released the Mason-Dixon poll, which was taken this past Monday through Wednesday, today.
"It's a statistical tie. It's a toss-up," said pollster Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon. "Nevada is a battleground. It's clearly a state both candidates, both campaigns, both parties are going to pay a lot of attention to.
It should be noted that about four years ago, after the nominees were established, the newspaper's March 2004 poll showed Bush leading Kerry, 49% to 38% (eventually, Bush won 51% to 49%). The 2004 undecided voters broke for Kerry big time, and I believe 2008 will be no different. What is different this year is that the presidential caucus has given Barack an advantage that Kerry never had... a Democratic voter registration advantage of close to 68,000 of total voters, and 50,000 of active voters. In 2004, the GOP held a 10,000 advantage and the presidential election was decided by only 21,500 votes. Yes, the caucus was good for Nevada.
So what else has changed in Nevada that gives Barack that advantage in the Silver State?
- We have a GOP Governor who is a complete idiot and toxic to all he comes in contact with. Some call him a media magnet and not in a good way. Yes, he is going through a messy divorce; and yes, it was revealed that he's sent over 800 text messages to a woman he's not married to; and yes, our state is in the worse financial mess it has ever experienced; and hell yes he's going to drag down ever GOP race in the state.
- George Bush waffled on storing nuclear wastes in our state, McCain can't hide from his past votes and current position. While some say this isn't "the" issue in Nevada, once the economic argument is made, who wants to glow in the dark after their vacation, it is advantage Obama.
- This candidate, McCain, wants to ban sports betting on college games and that's money taken from our economy. Forget the fact that this represents only 1% of all money bet on college sports and is highly regulated... yes, illegal betting with bookies represents 99% of all bets... this is a pocketbook issue.
- Oh, and did I mention that McCain came in third in the presidential caucus behind Mitt and Ron? Or that the state GOP still has not completed their state convention because the Ron Paul delegates showed up in greater numbers? They recessed their convention without selecting national delegates because Ron's delegates had the votes to elect the entire slate!
- In comparing the actual results of 2004 and the current poll, several items jump out...
In 2004, Bush lost Clark County (home of Las Vegas & 70% of state population) by 4%; in today's poll, Obama leads by 7%.
In 2004, Bush won Washoe County (home of Reno and 20% of the population) by 4%, and today McCain only leads by 3%.
Finally, in 2004, the rural counties were very consistent. Bush garnered 67% of the vote as well as 67% during the 2004 poll; today, McCain only captures 60% of that area in the poll.
- It's the economy stupid! We're hurting in Nevada because our country is hurting, as our state's revenues come from gaming taxes and sales tax...
The state budget director checked records going back 30 years and found this is the first year in which tax collections have dropped behind receipts for the previous year. It might be the first such decline in state history.
- Finally, voter education on the issues will swing this state for Barack. Once the seniors learn about McCain's plans for social security, his 50% to 34% lead in this category will diminish. Once women learn about McCain's views on their health issues, his deficit of 39% to 47% will increase. And once all Nevadan's learn of Barack's tax breaks for the working class, he will seal the deal!!!
So if history is a guide, turn to the 2004 poll with 13% undecided. The actual results show that Bush picked up 15% on those undecided and Kerry garnered 85%. Today's poll has undecided at 14%, and I predict the Barack will pick up 65% of those voters in the fall... Giving him Nevada 51% to 49%.
Update: My fellow Nevadan, Sven, has some great insight on this poll at My Silver State.