Tom Cole who is the National Republican Congressional Committee Chair just admitted on Diane Rehm's show this morning that as many as 90 seats could have money spent on them this cycle.
First off, I'd like to at least give credit to Cole for using the word Democratic in place of 'Democrat' to describe members who sit on our side of the fence. Better than Lieberman!
Reading between the statements and what was not said, his admission that a large number of Republican retirements and results from the special elections already held show a weakness that may be unprecedented in recent political history.
The word 'Watergate', and losses sustained in the House by Republicans was mentioned by Rehm as a marker; in response, Cole burned rubber trying to change the subject.
Change the subject, he did. Right to John McCain!
Cole went on to shine like a beacon about 'how John McCain will be a major player in getting Republican House seats this cycle'. Cole really did lead with this meme, staking a huge part of the chances for Republican 'victory' for the House on McCain.
Of course, I roared in laughter as Rehm countered with the some say of 'but but ... he's a maverick' and how 'McCain is more of a Democrat than any other Republican'.
Cole's assessment of McCain made him sound like a teenager, full of energy, ready to tear up the countryside - and then shot the very idea down in the next sentence.
{paraphrasing}'well, we don't really expect him to do that'.
Cole has set up McCain as an albatross: rather than discuss the real problems with the Republican Party and how it is splintering into pieces, Cole has dumped this House cycle totally into McCain's lap. When the cycle is over, the recriminations on their disaster? Pointed squarely at John McCain. Damned if he does, and damned if he doesn't, McCain has been set up as the goat.
It's Comedy Gold.
I shut the radio off at that point, so I didn't get the call-in segments.
If I could get through [and I did not, although I tried] I was going to politely ask Congressman Cole how exactly all the disparate elements of the modern day Republican Party could unite under McCain's banner.
So many issues and groups divide the Republican base, it's hard to see how McCain can be a help to many of these House races, where the local flavor tends to concentrate on social issues. How much flipping and flopping can McCain do, as he tries to put forth his anti-choice message, for instance and continue to hope to pull in women voters? Immigration: how many sides of McCain's mouth can he use? MCain is already reviled in his own State for his immigration stance.
Each time McCain sticks his head out of the hole to help a Republican running for a Congressional seat, especially in what used to be safer [R] seats, socially conservative areas where Democrats typically have had little luck, Johnny contradicts his own more moderate national stance.
I really doubt we'll be seeing much of McCain stumping in conservative areas: he will be hurting his national campaign.
I think that Barack Obama should be concentrating exactly on what used to be perceived as the Republican stronghold areas, taking the fight right into the very heart of those House Districts considered to be in play, at the very edges: the ones 'just added' as competitive. This requires bold leadership and close coordination between various aspects of the national campaigns inside the DCCC and the DNC.
Obama will energize the Democratic base nationally by doing this, and by calling out McCain on this socially conservative turf, McCain is forced to either stand and deliver for the locals, damaging his own 'maverick moderate' label, or let them down as he holds the line to try to win in November.
Of course, many people here will say I am insane for proposing this strategy. As some called Howard Dean insane, I guess I'm in good company.
Chris Van Hollen has said 75 seats are in play and Cole generally agrees with Van Hollen. 50 of those seats are held by Republicans.
Van Hollen does not want to appear overconfident, however. Being wary is fine, but pulling one's horns in would be a mistake this cycle. Van Hollen himself says the DCCC has the right message, strong research and field capabilities, and lots of cash. And one more thing: Barack Obama bringing in the young kids who have the energy to get on the ground and make things happen.
Yes, yes .. I hear what Van Hollen is saying: be careful. This dependence on the energy of youth is reminiscent of the Howard Dean phenomenon. Putting a lot of stock in the youth vote .. blah blah blah .. but spending too much time analyzing the past can hold back opportunities; I think this time, it's going to be different.
I think a few more seats might be in play, perhaps [as Cole indicated] as many as 90. It would be a nice goal, to see 300 Democratic Congresspeople in the House, wouldn't it?
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In 2006, I donated to about a dozen House and Senate candidates; I don't know how I'm going to find the money and continue to contribute to Obama's campaign and the DNC, too. Money is tight, really tight. Much more so than in 2006.
But I plan to spend a lot this cycle, supporting those candidates I think are in line with my progressive values, anyway. It's only money!
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Pro forma pre-emptive inoculation for who are 'concerned':
This is not a call to sit back one's ass and do nothing, be complacent or otherwise blow off the real work that needs to be done to make victory possible. It's simply passing along the narrative which I heard on a radio show this morning, as well as some observations by Beltway Bubbleheads.
Oh .. how could I forget!
DONATE! The DCCC is already well ahead of the RNCC.
It's the DNC that needs the money, and I donate directly to individual House races asI see fit. Of course, do whatever you choose.
I just sent $50.01, which is more than I can afford, but the hell with it!
Send Howard some love, even if it's only $5.01 because it's the DNC that has made the 50 State strategy possible to begin with.