Why? Because Bob Barr, or even dead-enders for Ron Paul, can swing Nevada for Obama, big time.
Let me tell you a story.
In January, I traveled to Nevada for three days to Get Out The Caucus for the Obama Campaign. At that time, I was fully engaged in intra-party warfare, so the Republican contest was little more than an amusing sideshow (and what a sideshow it was, am I right?).
While it was supremely gratifying that in the early contests Ron Paul bested Rudy Giuliani, I never thought that his "revolution" would ever pull more than 5%.
Then, as I was coming over the SIerra Nevadas into Reno, I saw a giant mountainside billboard reading "Ron Paul", and I realized that Nevada Republicans are, well, a little different.
How different? Follow me over the jump and I'll show you what I mean.
Ron Paul placed second overall in the Nevada caucuses, while McCain came in third. This means that, at the baseline, Nevada Republicans are more excited about Paul than they are their presumptive nominee. While I understand that this particular caucus was an extremely low-turnout affair, Ron Paul still did better statewide than his average in the rest of the country.
I don't think this is a fluke. I can at least say anecdotally that voters in Western states, especially Republicans, have a certain libertarian streak, having a lot to do with the history of the settlement of the west, our geographic distance from the Federal government, and the fact that many western states are mostly rural.
Also on the anecdotal side- I received a pile of Ron Paul curios and souvenirs from campaigners in Reno. They were very active, very visible, and very committed to the libertarian message. And let's not forget the breakdown of the usually predictable GOP herd mentality at the state convention.
What we know from the rest of the primaries is that hard-core Paulites make up roughly 5% of the GOP primary electorate, no matter where the primary is being held. In Nevada, apparently, the Libertarian message has a little more draw. If there's a strong libertarian candidate, as it appears Bob Barr will be, it's likely that many Republicans in Nevada may not line up with the Republican Party this time around. Moreover, hardcore supporters of Ron Paul are not likely to give up, and he may appear as a viable write-in challenge.
So here's the question- do I volunteer in Nevada for Barack Obama, or would I be doing better by actively trying to split the GOP vote?
According to Electoral Vote, Nevada is currently polling at 44% to 42% with McCain in the lead. In order to swing Nevada for Obama, either Bob Barr or Ron Paul as a write-in only has to pull 3% or more.
So, Kossacks, where would my time this Summer be most valuable?