I was going to put all of the diary on the Southern potential vice=presidents in one diary but there is too much so this will be a two-parter.
If there is any year for Democrats to capture Southern states then it is this one. With the Bush administration's approval rating at an all time low, Barack Obama's soaring popularity with African-Americans, and evangelicals reluctant to embrace John McCain it would seem as though Obama could walk away with at least a few Southern states in November. However this may not be the case as recent articles suggest: http://news.yahoo.com/...
Obama may be very popular with Southern blacks but he needs to attract the evangelical whites that normally vote Republican if he hopes to succeed in picking up the South. Unless Libertarian candidate Bob Barr (former ultra-conservative representative of Georgia) gains a massive boost in popularity among evangelicals and is able to split McCain's base then it is doubtful Obama will be able to capture states such as Georgia and Mississippi. Therefore some suggest that Obama should pick a running mate that could help him carry at least one Southern state.
Virginia is quickly becoming one of the bluest Southern states. Ever since the election of Tim Kaine as governor, Jim Webb as senator, and Democrats retaking the state senate, liberals have been eyeing Virginia as swinging blue in November. However there are still doubts. the most recent Rasmussen poll suggests that although Obama is gaining ground he is only currently ahead by one percentage point: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Analysts and pundits have been eyeing Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, and Mark Warner as potential running mates that could decisively turn the tide for Obama. Let's examine each candidate:
Tim Kaine assumed office in 2006. He is an early supporter of Obama and is very popular in Virginia. However, Kaine has two major faults that must be examined:
- His only political experience is that of being lieutenant governor and governor for two years. He has even less experience than Obama.
- He is passionately pro-life and promotes abstinence education. Kaine as vice-president would not reassure some women and former Hillary Clinton supporters who are still on the fence about Obama.
Jim Webb kicks ass. Watch this beatdown Webb delivers to Lindsey Graham:
http://www.youtube.com/... and tell me you can't admire him. He has foreign policy experience, is pro-choice, for civil unions, served in Vietnam, and served as Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan. By all of these merits, Webb would be Obama's perfect vice-president. But there is a dark side including baggage and doubts about Webb's electability:
- Webb has plenty of baggage. He once wrote: "The naval academy is a horny woman's dream". To summarize Melissa McEwan's article: http://shakespearessister.blogspot.c... Webb wrote an article in 1979 decrying women serving in the military and rather than making a public apology for it in 2006, he circled the issue completely: http://www.youtube.com/... . Women compose a large part of the Democratic party's base and Webb could easily piss them off.
- Webb would probably not be able to win Virginia for Obama. He barely won his Virginia Senate seat in 2006 and many attribute his victory to George Allen's macaca remark rather than Webb's exceptional candidacy.
- Webb still thinks the U.S. shouldn't have withdrawn from Vietnam. While this isn't really a relevant issue, it is kind of annoying.
Mark Warner is an almost perfect vice-president. He was an extremely successful governor, a great public speaker, liberal on the most important issues, and still remains highly popular in Virginia. His only flaws (if you can call them that) are:
- He is a shoe-in to win John Warner's Senate seat in November and should he be chosen as vice-president, there is no one to replace him. This means another Senate seat going to a Republican.
- He has stated that if he is chosen as vice-president he will not accept:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/... . So Warner is actually out of the race.
Overall Kaine, Webb, and Warner are all phenomenal. But I can't see Kaine as Obama's running mate and the only way Webb should be chosen is if he: 1) makes a major speech in which he sincerely apologizes for his past statements about women in the military and 2) campaigns his heart out for Obama in Virginia.
Stay tuned for Barack Obama's Running Mate Part III: The South (Every candidate that is not from Virginia)