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Tel Opinion Research (R). 6/11-13. Registered voters. MoE 4% (5/14-17 results)

McCain (R) 45 (44)
Obama (D) 41 (39)

Not much movement in the last month, with changes essentially float in the MoE. This state is neck and neck, with the Pollster.com composite at McCain 44.6, Obama 41.4.

And the crosstabs look ominous for McCain:

6/13  Total   Men Wom  GOP Dem Other  Whi Bla
McCain  45     49  41   80  21  34     54   7
Obama   41     38  44    7  63  53     31  86

Obama still has some ground to make up with Democrats. But the African American and white numbers are particularly dangerous for McCain.

The sample weighing of this poll is 79 percent white, 18 percent black. But in 2004, African Americans were 26 percent of the NC voter turnout. And does anyone doubt that Obama isn't going to improve on those numbers here and other states with large African American populations?

That's not all, in 2004, the gender split among NC voters was 59 female, 41 male. Yet in this poll, it's 55 female, 45 male.

In other words, the sampling is skewed in a way that gives McCain a huge boost. Not surprising given that the pollster is a GOP outfit. Someone else can do the math and re-weigh this poll in a way that would match 2004 numbers, to see how the toplines would change. But this is fine. The fact that Obama trails within the MoE in a poll heavily weighed against his strongest demographics -- all the while showing him gaining the support of only 63 percent of Democrats is stunning.

Update: From the comments, reweighing these results by 2004 black/white turnout means:

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 46

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 01:49 PM PDT.

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