Quinnipiac. 6/9-16. Likely voters. MoE 2.6% (5/13-20 results)
McCain (R) 43 (45)
Obama (D) 47 (41)
Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other Whi Bla
McCain 43 47 40 85 12 37 50 4
Obama 47 44 50 11 82 47 40 95
Too bad Q didn't break out Hispanics from the sample. It likely would've shown more CW-busting evidence that Obama is doing well with that group.
I'm still having a hard time believing that Florida is this competitive, but it's hard to argue with the numbers. The Pollster.com composite is narrowing, with McCain holding on to a tight lead -- McCain 44.4, Obama 42.7.
Update: Poblabo sez:
If Florida is in play, then John McCain's defense is completely broken; it was the one traditional swing state that always had looked off-limits to Obama. More frustratingly for McCain, he had spent the better part of three days in Florida earlier this month, hoping to raise doubts about Obama among Jewish voters. Although Quinnipiac does not break out the Jewish vote, Obama holds a 61-31 lead in Southeast Florida, where most of the state's Jewish population is concentrated.
The notion that Obama won't get the Jewish vote is as ridiculous as the one that he couldn't win Hispanics or low-income whites or women or whatever. All of it is fiction. Always was.
Update II: Pollster.com hadn't updated their composite score when I posted this, so I was going off older numbers. The new numbers are now Obama 44.5, McCain 44.1, and the graph looks like this: