for Florida and New Hampshire.
It appears that in Florida ARG and Quinnipiac are in line. ARG has Obama +5% and Q has him up 4%.
ARG gives us fortunately Hispanic breakdown where Obama is down but holding his own. Clearly if this is true for him to sure up Florida he will need to reach out to Hispanics and in particular Cuban-Americans.
"McCain leads Obama 48% to 45% among white voters (73% of likely voters). Obama leads McCain 88% to 8% among African American voters (11% of likely voters). And McCain leads Obama 50% to 41% among Hispanic voters (16% of likely voters)."
Obama does better among independent voters:
"Barack Obama leads John McCain 77% to 16% among Democrats (43% of likely voters). McCain leads Obama 75% to 18% among Republicans (38% of likely voters). And Obama leads McCain 47% to 43% among independent voters (19% of likely voters)."
Florida
Likely voters June 13-17
McCain 44%
Obama 49%
Undecided 7%
Sample size: 600 likely votersSample dates: June 13-17, 2008Question wording: If the general election were being held today between John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - McCain or Obama? (names rotated)
In New Hampshire Obama is comfortable with a 12% lead.
This is due to a great performance among women +22% and a good showing with independents +15%.
"43% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 25% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election."
NOW, I KNOW THIS IS ARG SO PLEASE DO NOT SHOOT ME OR WORSE DO NOT CRITICIZE ME, I’LL BE SAD.
Today's polls per RCP Obama up in all of them:
General Election: McCain vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 47, McCain 42 Obama +5.0
General Election: McCain vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3.0
Virginia: McCain vs. Obama PPP (D) McCain 45, Obama 47 Obama +2.0
Wisconsin: McCain vs. Obama SurveyUSA Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9.0
General Election: McCain vs. Obama Reuters/Zogby Obama 47, McCain 42 Obama +5.0
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12.0
Ohio: McCain vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 48, McCain 42 Obama +6.0
Florida: McCain vs. Obama Quinnipiac McCain 43, Obama 47 Obama +4.0