On the eve of his visit to Canada, Canadian polling firm Ipsos has bad news for John McCain. Barack Obama leads the race for president by seven points nationally, 50-43. The poll also found 73 per cent of our neighbours (Canuck speller, here!) think their country is on the wrong track.
Ipsos, a respected mainstream survey firm in Canada, conducted their poll among 1,000 American voters June 5-11 for the Canwest newspaper chain and the Global Television Network, both owned by the arch-conservative Asper family of Winnipeg. The results were likely held for the moment of maximum interest triggered by McCain's visit to Ottawa today.
Among all voters, both likely and unlikely, Obama led by 10 points, 49-39, which shows that GOTV efforts in November could be crucial.
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Ipsos had an interesting twist to this poll: the "advocacy momentum factor," which gauged the extent voters are prepared to speak positively about their preferred candidate. Obama leads this category 43-30.
Ipsos V-P Michael Gross said this stat reveals that Obama's popularity is "not just a rock-star effect. This is a deep commitment to the candidate."
And the story has a veiled hat tip for Daily Kos and like-minded sites:
The survey found 21 per cent of people - dubbed "active advocates" - would talk up Obama without being asked, compared to 11 per cent who would spontaneously praise McCain.
That presents Obama with a potentially marked advantage in an era when campaigns rely heavily on word-of-mouth praise - through social networking sites or even just in casual conversation - to build support.
"If there is a significant gap between the two candidates, what you have is a scenario where Senator Obama's supporters will be actively speaking to other people about Obama and why people should support him," said Gross.