SUSA has new polling from our three West Coast states. Washington continues its path to Solid Blue status by giving Obama a 55-40 lead. The Pollster.com composite is 54.8-37.6 Obama.
California is similarly safe for Obama, 53-41. The composite also looks good at 52.4-38.9 McCain.
Then there's Oregon...
SurveyUSA. 6/17-22. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/16-18 results)
McCain (R) 45 (39)
Obama (D) 48 (49)
From last week:
SurveyUSA. 6/11. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/7 results)
McCain (R) 38 (38)
Obama (D) 46 (52)
Both pollsters show an eroding Obama lead, minus seven points according to SUSA, minus six according to Ras. But the polls differ on why that's happening. SUSA has Obama holding steady, with McCain rising, while Ras has McCain steady while Obama drops. The joys of trying to make sense of polling...
Let's look at the internals from the two polls:
SUSA:
6/19 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other
McCain 45 62 31 81 13 41
Obama 48 33 60 14 82 44
5/18 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other
McCain 39 44 34 80 12 39
Obama 49 43 56 13 76 45
Rasmussen:
6/11 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other
McCain 38 38 38 76 13 32
Obama 46 43 49 10 77 45
5/7 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other
McCain 38 33 42 68 17 33
Obama 52 52 52 24 78 48
Look at those crosstabs for men. The two polls couldn't be further apart. The movement in Ras' numbers come from Republicans coming home to McCain. In the SUSA poll, the partisan crosstabs are remarkably stable among the two polls. So why the big McCain gain? A month ago, Republicans were 32 percent of the sample. In the poll released today, they are 41 percent. Remember, SUSA doesn't weigh for party ID, considering it a fluid measure. Ras weighs.
So who has the better system? Both pollsters have excellent track records, so it's a crap shoot. That's why the composite score is still the most accurate measure of the status of a race.
As for Oregon, this means is that my race outlook from earlier this morning is already obsolete -- Oregon is now a yellow single-digit state, with the poll composite score at 47.6-40.5 Obama. This state certainly leans Obama, and he should do fine here, but it can't be taken for granted.