The past couple of months we’ve seen the Hispanic issue evaporate in front of our eyes. Individual states started to give us a glimpse at what many knew would come, but the media loved the story about Obama having a Hispanic problem. The latest proof that Obama is sitting pretty with Hispanics and McCain has a big problem comes from Latino Decision Poll that has Obama leading by 39 points, pulling 63% to McCain’s 24% of likely voters, 60/23 all Latinos.
Cross posted on my site, www.ourhispanicvoices.com. Drop me an email if you'd like to join my Blogroll.
A new national survey of Latino voters shows Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama with a nearly 3-to-1 advantage over his rival, Republican John McCain.
The survey found that 60 percent of Latinos planned to vote for Obama, compared to 23 percent for McCain, while 16 percent were undecided. Latino Decisions, a collaboration between Pacific Market Research and University of Washington political scientists Matt Barreto and Gary Segura, conducted the poll by telephone June 1–12.
It reached 800 Latino registered voters in 21 states. Among Democrats, the survey found that 57 percent had supported Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton during primary contests versus 35 percent for Obama. During those months, many political observers questioned whether Obama would successfully woo Latino voters. The results of the survey clearly suggest the Latino vote was not anti-Obama during the primaries, and that going into the general election, he has easily built a large lead among Latino voters.
Full Poll and Methodology Here. It sampled 800 Hispanics/Latinos, 3.5% MOE
Full Poll and Methodology Here
Obama winning the vote in the following:
Texas 61%-22%
New York 65%-20%
Nevada 57%-31%
Colorado 57%-31%
California 66%-20%
Arizona 57%-31%
Florida 43%-42%
New Mexico 57%-31%
(I'll be keeping track of these states on my site now until Nov)
There has been a trend in a lot of state polls that McCain has been riding... He’s had trouble getting out of the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. This poll also shows those troubles and reveals some information on why Obama is doing well in polls coming out of New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado.
Currently, nationally Obama is leading McCain 3 to 1 and polling well in all the states with large Hispanic populations excluding Florida. Florida is a different animal because of the large Cuban population which is very different from the rest of the Hispanic population.
These are numbers that Democrats have traditionally pulled in elections. The important question is, can Obama draw out a record number of Hispanics? Traditionally only 7-9% of the population comes out to vote and it is split nearly 70/30 in favor of Democrats. If Obama can draw out a higher number of voters in places like Texas, then it can become competitive. In Colorado and New Mexico, larger numbers will ensure a win and in Arizona and Nevada he can walk away with a narrow win.
When you see Obama meeting with Hispanic leaders and targeting them in the next couple months with commercials an mailers, its not to win the vote, it’s to draw it out. McCain is in deep doodoo.