McClatchy:
In a sign that Democrat Barack Obama will be competitive in Florida, the nation's largest swing state, a new poll shows that Obama is leading Republican John McCain comfortably in South Florida and has a slight edge among Hispanics.
The poll for The Miami Herald shows Obama preferred by a 46-30 percent margin over McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, Florida's most populous area. South Florida traditionally votes Democratic, but the size of the margin often dictates whether the Democrat wins in a statewide contest.
One massive caveat -- the poll was conducted by the terrible Zogby, so take with a giant grain of salt. But if accurate, that would mean that Obama is running stronger in the region than Kerry, and is winning Latinos 40-35 in an area where Cuban Americans have long given their votes to Republicans.
Perhaps that's why Bush came down to help raise money for Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The brothers are under pressure from Democrats Raul Martinez and O2B candidate Joe Garcia. A third seat, that held by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, is being challenged by another great Democrat, Annette Taddeo.
These three Cuban Republicans have built entire careers around railing against the "Communists" in Cuba and the Democratic Party, but the region is changing dramatically, and we have a strong opening to take these three seats and. I don't trust Zogby and thus his numbers will always be suspect to me, but I do know the regional trends don't favor Republicans. Older anti-Castro Cubans are aging and dying off. Younger Cubans are either more recent immigrants, or are second-generation Americans without the strong feelings about the revolution. As such, they are more concerned with the same issues that other Americans are concerned with -- the war in Iraq, the economy, the price of gas, and health care.
Furthermore, those three Cuban Republicans -- Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers -- are rabid supporters of increased sanctions against Cuba, including tougher restrictions on travel to visit family and a ban on remittances. For a culture that is as family-centric as Latinos are, this is a violation of sacred family values. Our three great Democrats have made those restrictions a centerpiece of their campaigns and are gaining traction on the issue.
We are almost halfway to our goal of 1,000 contributors to our new ActBlue page. But I'd like a secondary goal as we close out the fundraising quarter -- Garcia is at 160 contributors as of this writing. I'd like to get that to 250 contributors. I know lots of people want to send a message to Bush that raising money for his most loyal lieutenants will cost him. I also know there are more than 90 south Florida readers of this site, and here's your chance to give a boost to one of your locals fighting the good fight for the good of our country.
So let's get Garcia to 250 contributors and help paint South Florida a delicious shade of Blue.
On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page
Joe Garcia for Congress
Raul Martinez for Congress
Annete Taddeo for Congress