Though the numbers are already improving (47 O, 40 M), one group that is truly torn between Obama and McCain is Catholics. There is a single issue causing this split; unsurprisingly, it's abortion. Despite loud, official pronouncements by some in the hierarchy, Catholics are divided on abortion -- not so much on whether or not it's wrong, but how wrong it is in comparison to other wrongs.
Given the right forum and the right language, Obama is in a position to move a substantial number of Catholics to his side, without compromising his stance on Roe v. Wade. If enough Catholics move from McCain to Obama, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania are sealed deals -- and McCain cannot win.
It's all about the seamless garment.
The seamless garment:
When the soldiers had crucified Jesus, they took his clothes and divided them into four parts, one for each soldier, and took his cloak as well. The cloak was seamless, woven in one piece from the top down.
What the image means:
The range of application is all too evident: nuclear war threatens life on a previously unimaginable scale; abortion takes life daily on a horrendous scale; public executions are fast becoming weekly events in the most advanced technological society in history; and euthanasia is now openly discussed and even advocated. Each of these assaults on life has its own meaning and morality; they cannot be collapsed into one problem, but they must be confronted as pieces of a larger pattern.
What Cardinal Bernardin was discussing in that 1984 speech is also called a consistent life approach. It had been, officially, the Roman Catholic Church's position that abortion is one of several issues that demand equal attention, all falling under the general heading of "reverence for life." Those issues include euthanasia, war, capital punishment, poverty and racism.
Official Church pronouncements under both Pope John Paul II and Pope Benedict XVI have sought to give primacy to abortion and euthanasia. From an excellent 2005 New Yorker article by Peter Boyer:
"Not all moral issues have the same moral weight as abortion and euthanasia," Ratzinger [Pope Benedict] wrote. "For example, if a Catholic were to be at odds with the Holy Father on the application of capital punishment or on the decision to wage war, he would not for that reason be considered unworthy to present himself to receive Holy Communion .... There may be a legitimate diversity of opinion even among Catholics about waging war and applying the death penalty but not, however, with regard to abortion and euthanasia."
The essential divide within American Catholicism, then, is between adherents to the "seamless garment" argument and the Church's official word.
American Catholics are famously ambiguous about Rome's pronouncements on sexuality, including even abortion, despite the rhetoric of Church officials. Obama's opening comes as part of his attempt to woo evangelicals (pdf, begins page 13). He is stressing issues that resonate with them and at the same time differentiate George Bush from his erstwhile voters: environmentalism, for example.
His opportunity is to stress a holistic approach to life issues. I have no doubt his rapproachment with evangelicals is already moving along this path. For Catholics, a familiarity with the "seamless garment" argument -- especially the use of the term -- would go a long way. IMHO, American Catholics are not looking for a leader who is against abortion and in favor of every other desecration of humankind -- like the current one. They are looking, instead, for a leader who acknowledges the difference of opinion on abortion, believes it should be used minimally, and places a high value on human life in all its forms and at all times, not simply at conecption.
Unequivocally, the opportunity is there:
...57% of US Catholic adults identity as Democrats or Democratic leaners, while 40% identify as Republicans or Republican leaners. (69% of Hispanic Catholics are Democratically inclined.) The shift from 2004 holds across all attitudinal levels, including frequency of mass attendance and the degree to which Catholics rely on doctrine i.e., the catholicity of Catholics, age, and gender.
I'm confident Obama sees it, and will take advantage of it.