AUTHORS NOTE: I had written this to post it yesterday afternoon. For some reason, it would not let me publish, saying I had already written a diary (it had been deleted). I chose not to edit it, so some of the references ("today", "yesterday") are a bit off. Apologies...
There was another bevy of polls this week, both on the presidential race and downstream, as well. Unfortunately, I do not have all of them at my disposal, as I put them in a notebook which I cannot, at present, find.
Nevertheless, I do have numbers on 22 separate contests, so let's head past the jump for the numerical goodness, which includes two polls just released in the past few hours!
AZ-PRESIDENT: McCain (R) 38%, Obama (D) 28%
This poll by Arizona State Univ. gets my attention, and not necessarily in a good way. I have a particularly hard time believing that over a third of Arizona residents are still on the fence on this race. I suspect that the college kids did not push leaners at all. In McCain's home state, I am guessing he would get the lions share of the learners.
CO-PRESIDENT: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%
Quinnipiac polls here as part of a "swing state" series, but none of them were really swinging very much...this Bush 2004 state included. This was the closest of the four, and it still gives Obama a solid lead right on the precipice of being outside the MoE (which was under +/-3%).
CO-SENATE: Mark Udall (D) 48%, Bob Schaffer (R) 38%
Other polls have had this contest closer, but this one (from Quinnipiac) feels right to me. I have said it before. I don't believe this contest will be a nailbiter. I think Udall will win this by double-digits.
KS-PRESIDENT: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 39%
CAVEAT--This is an internal poll, taken for the Roberts for Senate team by Public Opinion Strategies and SurveyUSA. One question--when did SurveyUSA become a GOP contract pollster??!!?? Weird. I don't think I have ever seen them doing private polls before. That said, even a GOP poll has McCain underperforming in a state that routinely gives Republicans solid double-digit victories.
KS-SENATE: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 51%, Jim Slattery (D) 34%
CAVEAT--This is an internal poll, taken for the Roberts for Senate team by Public Opinion Strategies and SurveyUSA. This is obviously meant to rebut recent public polling showing Slattery surprisingly close to the incumbent in this historically deep-red state. Even in this one, though, he is only sitting at 51%.
KY-PRESIDENT: McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 35%
This was released earlier this afternoon by Rasmussen. After a few months where Obama was getting obliterated in Appalachia, he is now polling at margins which compare favorably to the results of the 2004 election. Kerry lost here by nearly 20.
KY-SENATE: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 48%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 41%
Rasmussen hits this race as well, earlier today. C'mon, did you REALLY think that Lunsford was up five on the minority leader??!!?? This sounds about right, with McConnell staked to a modest lead, and still in pretty serious peril for the Fall.
MI-PRESIDENT: Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 42%
Quinnipiac hit here yesterday, and this one has been well diaried. This is about the second or third poll in a row which gives Obama a lead in this state which usually leans to the Democrats.
MN-PRESIDENT: Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 37%
Quinnipiac does a pretty effective job of consigning last week's SUSA poll (which had McCain down one) to the "outlier" ash heap. I say this because, as you will see in the next entry, the Q poll also paints a pretty negative picture of the Senate race for the Democrats. If this were a skewed Dem poll, Franken would have looked a lot better in the Senate race.
MN-SENATE: Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 51%, Al Franken (D) 41%
Quinnipiac finds Coleman in a comfortable, but not dominant, position over the presumed Democratic nominee. Coleman is still not polling great (rarely does he eclipse the 50-51-52 range), but Franken is not rocking the house, given how blue Minnesota is prepared to go this Fall.
MO-PRESIDENT: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 43%
SurveyUSA comes in here, and I am a skeptic. Not that I am skeptical of a McCain lead. I actually believe McCain is ahead here. But I don't buy seven points. Am I really expected to believe that Missouri is a better bet for the GOP than Mississippi??!!?? Than Alaska??!!?? I am very skeptical.
MS-PRESIDENT: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 44%
This Rasmussen poll, released yesterday, is a stunner. I was convinced that last month's six-point poll was an outlier. But now we have a second one. Which means that either (a) Mississippi really is competitive, or (b) Rasmussen really does not know how to poll this state.
MS-SENATE "A": Sen. Thad Cochran (R) 59%, Erik Fleming (D) 32%
Rasmussen polls the MS Senate race that NO ONE is talking about, and the results here indicate why. I would suspect that Fleming will draw about the same percentage he received back in 2006 against Trent Lott: low thirties.
MS-SENATE "B": Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 48%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 47%
This result, from Rasmussen, is significant for two reasons: (a) it shows that this is a real target for the DSCC in the Fall, as this is now the third or fourth poll showing this race to be a tossup; (b) it shows that Musgrove can take a punch, because Wicker apparently went to the air over the last month, in an effort to boost his sagging numbers. Based on this poll, it would appear that his ad blitz did not move the needle in any substantial way.
NJ-PRESIDENT: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 33%
Fairleigh Dickinson is the pollster on this one. While there have been a few polls in a row now showing a healthy Obama lead in the Garden State, I am not sure I can buy much stock in a sixteen-point lead. I suspect his lead here is about half of what we see here. As with a lot of college polls, the amount of undecided voters strikes me as a bit high.
NJ-PRESIDENT: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 45%, Dick Zimmer (R) 28%
This also comes from FDU. Most pollsters have had this race significantly closer. If this poll is legit, it is telling us that Zimmer is a virtual unknown (despite a long tenure in Congress AND a statewide run in 1996). It is also telling us that Lautenberg is not loved, but he is also a favorite to hang on.
OH-PRESIDENT: Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 46%
Released by SurveyUSA within the past few hours, this poll makes it three of the last four for Obama in this critical swing state. Interestingly, SUSA does their usual hypothetical VP matchups, and McCain leads in virtually all of those.
OR-SENATE: Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 38%, Jeff Merkley (R) 34%
A few caveats--this is a Republican poll (taken for the Chamber of Commerce by Public Opinion Strategies). Also, it was taken almost a month ago, and includes John Frohnmeyer, an Independent candidate who is no longer running for the seat. Add to that the fact that Frohnmeyer was running well left of the center, and you have a very serious dilemma for Senator Smith. Which might explain his ads this week portraying himself as a Quasi-Democrat.
TN-PRESIDENT: McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 36%
While nothing to write home about, this poll does represent a significant shift in Obama's direction from a previous poll by the same pollster (Rasmussen). As was noted on the front page yesterday, if you couple his huge margins in states like IL, NY, and CA with holding the line in places like Tennessee, you could see a popular vote landslide for Obama in November.
TX-PRESIDENT: McCain (R) 45.5%, Obama (D) 38.5%
Rasmussen has the race at nine points (48-39), while a new poll from the Texas Lyceum has it at five points (43-38). Either way, this most reliable of the "big" red states is significantly closer than it has been in any election since 1996.
TX-SENATE: Sen. John Cornyn (R) 43%, Rick Noriega (D) 35.5%
A huge spread in the two polls released on this race. Rasmussen has this race looking much as it looked earlier in the month: a solid-but-not-dominant Cornyn lead (48-35). Meanwhile, Texas Lyceum has it at tossup status (38-36). I think Rasmussen is closer, only because I am again finding very hard to believe that around 30% of the voting public is voting for "no frickin' clue."
WI PRESIDENT: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 39%
Yep, it is a real shame that Obama cannot attract white Democratic voters or Independents. Oh wait, he is crushing the Republican nominee in a state with a large Independent voter base (and is pretty darned white, on the whole). Hmm...never mind.