I predicted this some time ago in another forum, and after Wesley Clark's "gaffe"--what Michael Kinsley famously termed an instance where a politician tells the truth--Clark has become too much of a controversial figure for VP. But I like what he said because it shows that at least some Democratic surrogates know how to make news and to spread key points.
How do you do that? You say something that appears to be so outrageous that it gets a lot of coverage. Cheney did it successfully in 2004 when he told a carefully selected crowd that "if we make the wrong choice, we'll get hit again..." or something like that.
Anyway, it's clear to me that Webb will be the Veep for the Dems and Romney will be McCain's running mate.
Why Webb? He's tough, seems a little blue-collar like, and is a Southerner and former Republican, has military experience and also can choose his words carefully. I haven't checked but it seems likely that he actually wrote his political books, since he has written novels. The right wing attacked him for some fanciful and macabre stuff in his war novels and it did not work--even in Virginia. One of the most brilliant things Webb or his staff pulled off was "accidentally" taking his gun into the office.
He truly supported the troops by introducing the new GI bill, for which he is rightly proud. He's not the "pretty boy" that Edwards was and he is likely to attract white male voters who are nervous about McCain and put off by "pretty boy" Romney. He makes up some of that "masculinity deficit" that the Democrats have suffered from. I see him helping to carry a few "red states" like not only Virginia but also West Virginia and Ohio. (Some pundits are talking about HRC as Veep to help in Ohio; why choose her when Webb offers a better and more consistent economic populist message?)
Webb does not pose the "Cheney problem". Picking Clark or Nunn looks too much like Bush's seeking military gravitas. Clark, Nunn, and Powell can vouch for Webb. Webb also offers better military credentials than McCain, having served as Secretary of the Navy in Reagan's administration.
Webb helps the Obama ticket win and then we lose a Senate seat in VA, but surely a Democratic candidate--possibly current Governor Tim Keane--can be found who can take and retain the seat. And I think that Webb as VP candidate along with Mark Warner in the Senate race pretty well nails down Virginia for Obama.
So why is it Romney for the GOP?
He bolsters McCain on his weakest issue and the big issue--the economy, having managed the Olympics and a big company. More importantly, he has experience with innovative health care and his presence on the ticket probably gives McCain New Hampshire, which can be an important state. (If Gore had won NH in 2000, he would have won regardless of Florida or Tennessee.) The Romney name is well-known in Michigan, a state that the Democrats usually have to win (and where Romney's father was an innovator in making small cars years ago at American Motors).
And Romney, like Webb, appeals to the GOP because he looks like a guy who can run to succeed McCain after one term or two.
What about the Mormon thing? I think it's a really stupid religion, but then I think that about all of them. But regardless of the beliefs, there is a lot of conventional wisdom out there about how hard-working and morally conscientious they are. And Romney on the ticket could help in a state that Obama has targeted and is currently leading in--Colorado.
Runners-up: If Obama's poll numbers go south in early August, look for Bayh or even HRC, but Bayh is bland and HRC brings a whole set of new problems, primarily WJC. If McCain's poll numbers continue to stagnate, he could go with Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson in an attempt to appeal to moderate independents and disaffected women.
No chance, despite hype:
Dem: KS Governor Sebelius--alienates HRC supporters who think that if it's a woman Veep candidate it should be HRC and KS has only 6 EVs; Bill Richardson--too flaky and NM should be an easy Obama win.
GOP: LA governor Bobby Jindall--I don't know how he got elected in LA, but Indian/Americans are even more "exotic" than African-Americans; Joe Lieberman--only if McCain thinks that CT, NH, and FL are what he needs to win in addition to the "solid South" (and assuming that the 2004 Bush states hold otherwise).