An economy teetering on the precipice of ruin; two actual ground wars and a war on terrorism all on the edge of disaster; environmental chaos ready to devestate our very way of life. But luckily for the Grand Old Party, there's an incoming Democratic President and Congress to scapegoat.
Call me paranoid if you must, but if the goal of the GOP really is to create a Permanent Republican Majority, the worst case scenario for the them is holding on the White House and either winning back Congress or holding to a close, active minority. If that were to happen, and all the predicted catastrophes; be they economic, defensive or environmental; all those disasters would be blamed solely on the Republicans. Any attempt to blame their opponents would hopefully be laughed away.
There is some precedence for this sort of gamesmanship, though until now, it's been confined to the relatively meaningless confines of the sports arena. Teams in the NFL, NBA, and NHL were accused in the past year of intentionally tanking games, either to get a better draft pick or a more favorable playoff match-up. Do you really believe the GOP wouldn't be able to stomach a short term defeat if they thought it ensured them a greater victory?
That's why Bush was so insistant on his economic stimulus. Our economy seems to based more on that elusive "consumer confidence" than on anything more solid. And we measure that confidence by people's willingness to spend money and fuel the economy. The administration was not shy in admitting the stimulus package was designed to keep that moving. But perhaps they knew we really were headed for a severe crash, and that stimulus was designed to keep the economy afloat through the rest of the year and into the Christmas season, would should last until just about the end of January; right around the time it is persumed that President Barack Obama is taking the oath of office.
And then there are the wars. The administration and pentagon can talk up our success all they want; but it's obvious to objective critics that our efforts have yet to achieve the victory we've been promised for the last five years. They know we can't sustain our troop levels in either theatre, and Lord in Heaven help us should a third theatre be required to open. They're just hoping they can hold off long enough so that President Obama has to be the one to make the tough decisions. It will be President Obama who has to risk a repeat of the Cambodian killing fields because we can't sustain the war effort (especially in Iraq where our troops are all that's really left of the Coalition of the Willing).
And the environment. As sensible Republicans begin to realize that we must now take action to protect our habitat, our life sustaining planet, the administration had decided to continue their head in the sand policy of "saving the planet is bad for the economy." Again, it will be President Obama who has to put Detroit into line and force emission standards on an already stagnant industry (though if we had done that back in the 80s when this whole global warming hullaballo was starting to heat up, we might not be in this perdicament today). It will be President Obama who will have to wake up the average American, force them to change their consumption lifestyle. And Americans don't like change. We hate it and try to avoid it as much as possible.
So it will be President Obama who has to make the tough, unpopular decisions (though somehow I think the GOP would have preferred another President Clinton to heap this on). It will be President Obama who gets the Jimmy Carter treatment in 2012. The GOP trotted our their worst possible candidate for this election in John McCain; someone who doesn't energize their base (a requirement for GOP presidents since they can't seem to capture the center of the electorate); someone who represents a step backward in politics when the nation is so obviously hungering for progress. If the GOP wants to win the 2012 election, they have to lose in 2008.
It's not all doom and gloom. First of all, maybe Obama can help Americans realize that it really is the disasterous policies of the Bush administration that put us where we are today. Maybe he really is the Hope we Can Believe In. And maybe things really aren't as bad as we think. Maybe we do just need a kick in the pants to get some progress going in this country.
And of course there is this one last point to give us hope: my entire post is predicated on the assumption that the GOP is smart enough to strategize on a long term basis. And to be honest, there really isn't any evidence to support that assumption.
So maybe I am just paranoid.