As much as the media narrative screams "close race" and tries to make us believe that there is some sort of rallying of the republican faithful taking place around Grandpa John -- it's all bullshit, and they know it.
I am a long beaten down Democrat, living in a deeply red district in Washington State, seriously disheartened by the disasters of two Bush terms, and 16 years with Doc Hastings as my representative, and I am telling you right now, Obama is going to win in a landslide. It won't even be close. He'll win at least 300 electoral votes, probably more.
The difference will be turnout. No opinion poll can tell me what a likely voter will look like in November, just as they couldn't have predicted the record shattering showing Democrats had in the primary race. In 2004 we had 125 people show up at the county wide convention for John Kerry. This year we had almost 700. This in a Bush +10 congressional district. College campuses have become incubators for the largest turnout among the youth in history - probably even eclipsing that of 1972 when 18 year olds could first vote. And, think of this -- the 50 state voter registration drive the campaign is planning hasn't even started yet.
Add to this the sheer motivation of Obama's supporters. Never having given money to a campaign before, this year I made small donations to no less than six. I have run into scores of people who say the same thing. People who have never gone to a political meeting now are hosting their own, and volunteering for campaigns.
This race is over already, but the world will know it by the time of the conventions, when 75,000 screaming Obama disciples pack Invesco field for the nominee's acceptance speech, a true pageant of hope, to be followed a week later with a pasty John McCain, an anemic crowd, well-worn Republican slogans, and a long series of senior teleprompter flubs.
Finally, the effect this turnout will have on down the ticket races will be phenomenal. Republicans will look back and call this "Bloody Tuesday". Look for a 40+ seat gain for the Democrats in the House, and at least 8 in the Senate. Even George Fearing in the red 4th District in Washington State has a real chance to unseat Doc Hastings, our beloved champion of "ethics".
So take heart, Democrats. This is the election you've waited your whole lives for. We only need to pull together one last time, take to the streets and make it happen.