It's great that Barack Obama is doing well, but we must not fall into the trap of thinking this election is over and an automatic landslide.
Things are looking up for Barack Obama. He raised $52 million in the month of June. He leads by a substantial margin in national polls. He's taken leads in traditionally Republican states like Montana, and is narrowing McCain's lead in the nearby Dakotas. Even the mainstream press is starting to declare that Obama is winning the election.
This is all great. I'm happy when a candidate I support is doing well. Unfortunately, winning too much early in the season can lead to bad things when it really counts. See the New England Patriots for example.
Back in 1988, Michael Dukakis had picked a wildly popular running mate in Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen. Dukakis had a successful Democratic Convention; in Atlanta, Dukakis healed a fractured party and outlined his vision for the country. In the afterglow of the 1988 Democratic Convention, Dukakis had a 17 point lead over George H.W. Bush in the polls. Then it all went south. Dukakis muffed an answer about the death penalty, alienated gun owners, and looked ridiculous in a tank. The result: Dukakis lost the 1988 election by eight percent.
The same thing could well happen to Barack Obama. His campaign is confident, perhaps too confident. Some on Capitol Hill have found the campaign to be insular and unwilling to listen to outside suggestions. These comments are dismissed, and people assume that all is well with the campaign.
That, in my view, is the problem. The fact that many people mistakenly think that victory is a certainty has led to people trying to influence an Obama administration which does not exist yet. People have withheld donations in an attempt to get Obama to take positions they agree with. These people say they will not donate until Obama "earns it." Of course, "earning it" means different things to different people. Some former Hillary Clinton donors are refusing to donate to Obama; this is part of their effort to get the junior Senator from New York on to the ticket.
These are not the kind of actions which win elections. From now until November, all of the Democratic Party needs to have the nominee's back in order to ensure the victory we all long for. After the election is over, and after a day of celebration on January 20th, we can return to our respective factions and start trying to influence the new administration. Until then, it's vital that people volunteer and donate to their party's nominee. If we don't, Barack Obama could become the second coming of Mike Dukakis.