Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. What a horse race we have in this country. Barack Obama and Senator John McCain are competing for the highest office in the nation. Can Obama win? Alas, no. Here is why:
- Obama is ahead in the national polling and has been consistenly ahead in the national polling.
- Obama is ahead in enough state polling to sail past 270 electoral votes and has been consistenly ahead in enough state polling to sail past 270 electoral votes.
- George W. Bush is one of the most unpopular Presidents in American history, and John McCain, in his own words, has supported Bush in all of the "transcendent" issues of our time.
- Democrats are more energized than Republicans this election.
- Democratic voters have out-registered Republican voters across the country (even in many red states).
- Obama has created an incredible fund-raising machine.
- The long primary season has helped Obama and the Democratic Party in every state gather the tools needed for an extraordinary get-out-the-vote operation.
- Obama is doing better among whites than Kerry did in 2004, and McCain is doing worse among African-Americans and Latinos than Bush did in 2004.
- Americans will alleviate their concerns about Obama once they have the opportunity to see him debate McCain (just like Reagan in 1980 and Clinton in 1992).
- Americans agree with Obama and disagree with McCain on most issues.