On the rec list, there is a diary concerned with election theft, and in this one, I'll present reasons why theft can't happen this year. I believe that while a close election could be stolen, you won't be able to steal a landslide...
On the front page, there is a great piece discussing the 20 offices opening all over Virginia, and the McCain camp reaction is simply classic...
Marc Ambinder also notified us today that the offices are opening in Montana too
That a Democratic presidential candidate opened six campaign offices in Montana? As of Saturday, Obama For America will have 24/7 "Campaign for Change" outposts In Billings, Bozeman, Butte, Great Falls, Helena and Missoula.
Honestly, these News Releases are very abstract, without context, visuals, and don't break into the National News. That's why I want to draw attention to the turn out of 1,200 volunteers greeting the opening of Colorado's field offices on Tuesday.
From the Campaign Blog
On Tuesday, over 1,200 people turned out in cities across Colorado as the Obama Campaign for Change celebrated the opening of four campaign offices. The people of Boulder, Denver, Colorado Springs and Pueblo turned out in masses, eager to get involved in the campaign and help build Colorado's movement for change.
The Youtube video
Noerena, a volunteer at the Denver office, said she was thrilled by the turnout:
I think it shows the excitement that there is all over the city about the campaign. People are ready to start working and playing their part to help win Colorado. I feel the urgency of winning this election and I see that throughout this state. I've been helping register voters and make phone calls. Every little thing that we do could swing this election. Every little thing -- every single voter registration card we get filled out, every phone call we make -- could be the tipping point that sends Barack to the White House.
As Poblano points out, this is a campaign built upon Groundgame.
This is the campaign equivalent of invasion with overwhelming force. In the coming days, we should be hearing more reports like these from other battlegrounds (here's Iowa, for example), giving us a clearer and clearer picture of each campaign’s voter contact strategy. Already, however, Marc Ambinder has pointed out that:
The polls don't account for the force multiplier effect that Obama's campaign will almost certainly bring to bear with its millions of volunteers and thousands of paid staffers. Whether that effect is 1.01, 1.05 or even 1.3 -- we don't know yet. But even the McCain campaign acknowledges its existence.
Those paid organizers are each recruiting underneath them volunteers and precinct captains (themselves responsible for recruitment and management of volunteers). As I’ve said before, it’s a pyramid scheme aimed at massive voter-to-voter contact. Millions and millions and millions of voter contacts, all knocked out 5, 10, 50 at a time by volunteers. The info gleaned from the contacts is re-looped into the voter file, and repeat contacts are thereby more informed (undecideds can be persuaded; supporters can be urged to early vote; banked early votes allow campaigns to use resources more efficiently in the closing days, etc.). The principle is: voters persuade other voters more personally and powerfully than a 30-second TV ad. Ads give impressions; real people close the sale.
There was Opinion today about the "2000" paid staff and the supposed burn rate created by this "overhead".
Obama recently told reporters, "I've never been a big entourage guy. ... And that takes some getting used to." Well, the size of Obama's campaign suggests he's gotten used to the idea very quickly. Before even locking up the nomination, Obama's paid staff was already in excess of 700 people. In the last month, Obama has hired dozens if not hundreds of staffers, and his National Field Coordinator said the campaign anticipates deploying more than 2,000 paid staffers to every state in the country. Sending 15 paid staffers to Texas might make a good sound bite, but politically speaking, it is flushing money down the toilet.
A paid staff of 2,000 is unheard of in the history of presidential elections. Consider that it's five times larger than Bush's campaign staff in 2004, which is the next biggest ever assembled. Indeed, Obama will have more people working on his campaign than President Bush currently has in the whole White House.
However, Marc Ambinder hits the nail right on the head with a rebuttal, from an objective source.
Sending 15 paid staffers to Texas is "flushing money down the toilet?" No. It's about organizing volunteers for New Mexico and other border states, and about helping Democratic candidates down the ballot. 2,000 field staff? Honestly, Republicans have reason to fear that number. Note that the Obama campaign will pay for most of its field staff directly, which is not normally how this happens. In 2004, most GOP field operatives came from the RNC; most Democratic field operatives were paid by the DNC.
The Obama campaign intends to run the equivalent of 18 major Senate race campaigns. Expensive? Yes. Unprecedented. Yes. Centrally controlled? Yes. Risky? Yes. Leaving nothing to chance? Yes.
Fear the Number, yes. 2000 Paid Staff; however, Thousands of neighborhood volunteers out there sealing the deal is going to make a whole huge heck of a difference. Back to the McCain camp Virginia spokesperson from the front page.
"You can overdo it," Saxman said of Obama's campaign.
Griffis said Obama has more than 10,000 volunteers in Virginia who need more space. State GOP officials said they do not believe Obama has that many volunteers.
Faith Based campaigning WILL NOT get the job done. You can't wish away the enthusiasm that is REAL in the Obama campaign. 1200 volunteers for some offices opening in JULY in COLORADO...
Astonishing... meanwhile, McCain's "base" is non-pleased.
A prosperous hamlet of 6,300, Sioux Center is home to 17 churches, 13 of them with the word "Reformed" in their name, a sign of a strong evangelical presence. In 2004, 16,000 people in the county voted, 14,000 of them for Bush....
"I think people here genuinely believe that George Bush and his Christian faith was very sincere," said Mulder. "People have said that when they talked to him, he took time to let them know how much that Christian belief meant. For McCain, I just don't think there's that same enthusiasm."
And that, my friends, is the difference this year.
Have you invested in success this year?