Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/14-16. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/12-14 results)
If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?
Young (R) 40 (40)
Berkowitz (D) 51 (50)
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?
Stevens (R) 45 (43)
Begich (D) 47 (48)
If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
McCain (R) 51 (49)
Obama (D) 41 (42)
Full cross-tabs are below the fold.
It's been two months since the last polls, but the numbers are fairly static, bobbing around well within the margin of error. Obama has lost three points, Begich has lost three points, and Berkowitz has gained one. Of course, even if it's just float within the MoE, it looks nicer when the numbers are trending in our direction. There's no doubt that this Senate race will be particularly tight.
This is a dirt-cheap state to advertise in. The cheapest, or second-cheapest, depending who you ask and how they count it, and the most efficient place to spend your money according to one of Poblano's analysis.
Note, Don Young is facing two challengers in the GOP primary (August 26), so root for the corrupt old bastard over challengers Sean Parnell and Gabrielle LeDoux, and pray that federal investigators don't swoop in with premature indictments before the primary. Be particularly glad that the anti-Young vote is being split in two. Young will need just a plurality to survive.
Democrat Ethan Berkowitz is also facing a primary against Diane Benson, the 2006 nominee. Berkowitz has so dominated the money race (with an 8-1 disparity on CoH) that I've failed to see a reason to include Benson in this polling. That may be a bad call on my part -- the most money doesn't always win. But one other data point has kept me skeptical of her chances: The Benson campaign released a poll last year taken between 10/27-11/2 that showed her trailing 29-21. There's been no subsequent polling released in the race, which doesn't necessarily mean the Benson campaign is hiding bad news (they could be trying to lull Berkowitz to sleep), but still means the only public poll on the race showed her at 21 percent with little money available to help drive those numbers up.
Still, these matchups aren't necessarily the matchups we might see post-primary day, but are the most probable. I hate late primaries.
New Mississippi numbers coming within the next two weeks.
On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page (Begich is an O2B candidate)
Mark Begich for Senate
Ethan Berkowitz for Congress
Diane Benson for Congress
Alaska Poll Results July 2008
poll conducted 14-Jul 16-Jul 2008, 600 likely voters interviewed state wide by telephone. Margin for error 4%.
Sample Figures
Men 293 49%
Women 307 51%
Dem 121 20%
Rep 186 31%
Ind 293 49%
18-29 108 18%
30-44 210 35%
45-59 192 32%
60+ 90 15%
Anchorage 289 48%
Cen/oth 95 16%
Fair/Jun 216 36%
Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz?
Very Very Not
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Sure
All 20% 32% 16% 13% 19%
Men 18% 29% 20% 15% 18%
Women 22% 35% 12% 11% 20%
Dem 37% 47% 7% 5% 4%
Rep 6% 16% 24% 21% 33%
Ind 22% 37% 14% 11% 16%
18-29 24% 37% 10% 7% 22%
30-44 17% 31% 19% 15% 18%
45-59 22% 33% 14% 12% 19%
60+ 16% 27% 21% 18% 18%
Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Don Young?
Very Very Not
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Sure
All 11% 26% 36% 25% 2%
Men 13% 30% 33% 23% 1%
Women 9% 22% 39% 27% 3%
Dem 4% 7% 54% 34% 1%
Rep 19% 43% 20% 15% 3%
Ind 9% 24% 38% 27% 2%
18-29 5% 22% 42% 28% 3%
30-44 13% 29% 34% 23% 1%
45-59 10% 24% 37% 27% 2%
60+ 15% 29% 32% 22% 2%
If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices
were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican ?
Berkowitz Young Undecided
All 51% 40% 9%
Men 47% 45% 8%
Women 55% 35% 10%
Dem 86% 6% 8%
Rep 18% 71% 11%
Ind 58% 34% 8%
18-29 55% 34% 11%
30-44 48% 44% 8%
45-59 53% 38% 9%
60+ 47% 44% 9%
Anchorage 50% 39% 11%
Cen/oth 45% 48% 7%
Fair/Jun 56% 37% 7%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich?
Very Very Not
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Sure
All 20% 32% 15% 12% 21%
Men 18% 29% 19% 14% 20%
Women 22% 35% 11% 10% 22%
Dem 33% 43% 7% 6% 11%
Rep 8% 20% 26% 20% 26%
Ind 22% 35% 11% 10% 22%
18-29 25% 36% 11% 8% 20%
30-44 18% 30% 18% 14% 20%
45-59 22% 33% 14% 9% 22%
60+ 15% 27% 18% 18% 22%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens?
Very Very Not
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Sure
All 9% 27% 35% 26% 3%
Men 11% 31% 32% 24% 2%
Women 7% 23% 38% 28% 4%
Dem 3% 13% 51% 32% 1%
Rep 18% 41% 20% 18% 3%
Ind 6% 24% 38% 28% 4%
18-29 5% 21% 41% 32% 1%
30-44 11% 30% 33% 23% 3%
45-59 7% 24% 36% 29% 4%
60+ 12% 32% 31% 21% 4%
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?
Begich Stevens Undecided
All 47% 45% 8%
Men 43% 50% 7%
Women 51% 40% 9%
Dem 83% 7% 10%
Rep 13% 81% 6%
Ind 53% 38% 9%
18-29 53% 39% 8%
30-44 43% 47% 10%
45-59 49% 45% 6%
60+ 43% 49% 8%
Anch 49% 43% 8%
Cen/oth 40% 55% 5%
Fair/Jun 48% 43% 9%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
Approve Disapprove
All 37% 63%
Men 40% 60%
Women 34% 66%
Dem 5% 95%
Rep 72% 28%
Ind 28% 72%
18-29 32% 68%
30-44 40% 60%
45-59 35% 65%
60+ 41% 59%
If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
McCain Obama Undecided
All 51% 41% 8%
Men 54% 39% 7%
Women 48% 43% 9%
Dem 10% 86% 4%
Rep 82% 8% 10%
Ind 48% 43% 9%
18-29 42% 50% 8%
30-44 56% 34% 10%
45-59 48% 47% 5%
60+ 58% 33% 9%
Anch 51% 40% 9%
Cen/Oth 56% 38% 6%
Fair/Jun 49% 43% 8%