We have two upset specials that we are watching very closely. AL-03 and NC-10. The Swing State Project, who in our opinion is one of the best in handicapping horserace politics, has both of these in their races to watch category. Read SSP's Competitive House Ratings
I am asking you to take it a step further and help me make these races garner more national attention. Both Josh Segall (AL-03) and Daniel Johnson (NC-10) have a chance if they can raise enough money to get on the air.
AL-03- Josh Segall vs. Mike Rogers
We have already written several diaries about Josh Segall recently, but want to urge you to put this race on your radar. But please take a moment and read This diary at Left in Alabama. The diary makes a good point in drawing some conclusions in what it will take to win including buying media in three markets (Birmingham, Montgomery and Columbus). None of these are particularly expensive and we are not quite sure if that covers the most northern part of the District.
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We still think that the DCCC could get some bang for their buck here in terms of Media. Mike Rogers certainly has several issues that he can be attacked on. SeeWashington Changed Mike. Rogers certainly can be hit on his vote against the GI Bill as well as mandatory minimum rest periods for U.S. Military serving in Iraq.
Segall certainly knows how to campaign having done that Circuit after college for several high profile races. Josh has a great grasp of the issues having heard him speak several times and has one of the sharpest quickest minds I've ever seen.
Look to the 2002 open seat matchup between Joe Turnham and Mike Rogers. Had the DCCC jumped in we may not even be talking about this race. We need to pressure them not to make the same mistake twice. Rogers only beat Turnham by 3,000 votes and was boosted by a last minute appearance by W. Well Cheney is coming to campaign for Rogers on August 1. The DCCC needs to listen to the netroots on this race.
NC-10 - Daniel Johnson vs. Patrick McHenry
Another great chance to unseat a terrible incumbent with a great candidate. Patrick McHenry is one of the more despised and partisan members of Congress. Fundraising presents a challenge as Johnson has raised about 342k while McHenry is over a Million. See Swing State Project totals However, Johnson only trailed McHenry in the 2nd Quarter by 20k and Johnson missed a significant amount of call time due to the birth of his first child.
The Republicans know that they are in trouble in this race because they have started attacking Johnson for taking money from Charlie Rangel.
Read Press Release
This is a race based on McHenry's personality that could get really nasty on the air and while this is not a real expensive media market, Charlotte is not the cheapest either.
This is a very rural area which has not been represented by a Democrat since 1969. However, McHenry has a lot of baggage including his putting a video on his website that may have violated several military laws because he described the natures of attacks from the Green Zone in Baghdad.
See diary at Vet Voice
McHenry has already tried to disparage Johson by linking him to Nancy Pelosi as well he has also issued less than positive remarks about his own Presidential Nominee John McCain.
McHenry is a career politician, while Johnson served in the Navy where he lost both of his legs. Johnson also understands politics having worked for former Georgia Senator Max Cleeland. I found out about this race through a friend that worked with Daniel in Cleeland's office. He spoke very highly of his leadership abilities as well as his intellect. We've seen neither from McHenry.
Conclusions
We like that both of these candidates are young and have fresh appeal. We like the fact that they are running in relatively small media markets.
When I think of AL-03 I think of the 2002 matchup where the DCCC made a terrible blunder.
When I think of NC-10 I think of the 2002 Georgia Senate race where the DSCC made a terrible blunder in underestimating Saxby Chambliss attacking Max Cleeland.
I would certainly like to get some sweet revenge for those 2002 mistakes. However, I also point out that we have two great candidates that would serve their constiutents better and also have potential to be leaders in the Democratic Party.
Please go to My Two for Tuesdays Act Blue Page and give them what you can. We need to make a stand on some of these races.