Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 26 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole sixpack! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
Today, put on your cheesehead hat, open a can of Milwaukee’s Best and prepare to visit some very friendly territory for Democrats. Wisconsin, THIS IS YOUR 50-State Diary!!!
Wisconsin has come a long way since the days of Joe McCarthy, or even Bill Proxmire, the Senator who used to give out "Golden Fleece Awards" for the most blatant and expensive use of pork. The state now ranges from solid blue Milwaukee and even solider blue Madison to light blue farm territory along the north and east regions, to the Milwaukee suburbs, that still lean Republican but which can no longer outvote the rest of the state.
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
BLOGS: Wisconsin’s single-state blog is UPPITY WISCONSIN. I love the name for in you face progressive activism!
http://www.uppitywis.org/
PRESIDENT: Republicans point to Wisconsin as a very distant third possibility (after PA and MI) among the states that wisely rejected Scrappy Doo for President twice but might be expected to change their minds and decide he’s worked so well after all that they’re going to be voting Republican this year. I think they’re delusional. Safe Obama.
SENATE: Russ Feingold is one of the best in the party. Congratulations and gratitude to Wisconsin for blessing us with him. And Herb Kohl is pretty solid, too. They’re both completely safe, especially since neither of them is up this year.
GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE: Jim Doyle, the Democratic governor, is not up this year. Neither are the Democratic Lt. Governor, the Democratic Treasurer, the Democratic Secretary of State, or the Democratic Education Secretary. Only the AG’s office is currently Republican, indicating a strong blue tilt to Wisconsin.
Doyle is in the middle of his second term and likely won’t run again even if he isn’t term limited, so watch out. We’ll need to keep it in 2010 if we are to have hope of redistricting Congressman Ryan out of office.
STATE LEGISLATURE: A crucial flipping opportunity.
Lower House: 47 D, 52 R. Three seats to flip the chamber to blue.
Upper House 18 D, 15 R. Two seats would flip the chamber back to the Republicans.
For these reasons (and for the lack of seriously competitive races upticket) the state legislature—both houses—is THE BIG ONE for Wisconsin 2008. Nothing beats the potential to capture both houses and dominate the statewide agenda. Wisconsin can be a beacon of example, showing other midwestern states how it can be done and inspiring them to join us in the blue column. Or there could be a continuing or new GOP majority obstructing the forces of goodness at every turn. The choice is Wisconsin’s.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—Paul Ryan (Inc R). This suburban district on the Illinois border is the most politically neutral district now held by a Republican. This one and the 8th are the only ones considered "on the map" in 2008, and even then, only barely.
Ryan’s Democratic opponent will be either Marge Krupp, a chemical engineer, or Paulette Garin, a teacher and CPA. Neither has much experience that I’ve noticed, but they both have a lot of heart. In a wave year, this one has a chance of flipping. If it does not flip, most of my thoughts on redistricting are directed to this blue corner of the state, which can be made to flip. In the last redistricting, it was gerrymandered to protect the incumbent.
http://paulettegarin.com/
http://kruppforcongress.com/
District 2—Tammy Baldwin (Inc. D) One of the better Democrats in Congress, and a safe incumbent from solid blue Madison.
District 3—Ron Kind (D). This district used to have one of the few gay Republican Congressmen and was considered unwinnable for Democrats. Now, it’s so blue that they haven’t bothered running a challenger. Unopposed Dem!
District 4—Gwen Moore—an Unopposed Democrat in a district drawn by Republicans to concentrate Milwaukee Democrats.
District 5—The ONLY unopposed Republican outside the South and California’s Central Valley. We could have done better than that; on the other hand we’ve got two unopposed Democrats to their one, so it isn’t completely bad.
District 6—Roger Kittelson (D) v. Tom Petri (Inc R). This central WI district held by a long term incumbent isn’t currently on the map, but it will be when Petri retires, if our success over the years in the surrounding districts 2, 3 and 8 are an indication. Rural Wisconsin is bluing nicely. The 6th was unopposed in 2006, and I’m very grateful to Kittelson for giving the voters a choice.
District 7—David Obey (D) Northwest WI has a lot in common with Minnesota’s Iron Range 8th district. It’s Democratic, Obey has achieved sainthood status here, and by the way he’s chair of the House Appropriation’s Committee. Is he safe? Does a one legged duck swim in circles?
District 8—Steve Kagan (Inc D) v. Jonathan Gard (R) Kagan won a close one in 2006 when this was an open seat. If anything, this is a more solid Democratic wave year than that one, and now Kagan is an incumbent, and the Republicans have nominated the same guy who lost to Kagan in 2006. There is no reason to suppose that the outcome this time around will be any different, and the race is rapidly dropping off the political radars. Likely Dem.
http://www.kagen4congress.com/
http://www.kagen4congress.com/
REDISTRICTING WISCONSIN: We’re not too far from the State government trifecta, but we’d have to hold it in 2010 when there will be an open governorship and Obama won’t be on the ticket. If we can make it, we can try to tilt the delegation to 6-2 Dem.
The key will be the Milwaukee area, which used to have two Dem seats and was redrawn to have one supersafe Dem seat (the 4th) and two suburban red districts. It’s also lost population to the point where just putting the old 4th and 5th in place can’t be done.
My plan is to draw the new 1st straight up from the IL border between Lake Michigan on the east and Interstate 94 on the west. That way it includes the cities of Racine and Kenosha, but not the redder western parts of those counties. Only in Milwaukee County will it follow the county line and go west of I-94. It will then take in slightly more than 1/3 but less than ½ of the existing 4th.
The new 4th would have all of the rest of Milwaukee county, and would take in southern Ozaukee and, if necessary, some of Waukesha County to the west, such as the bluer parts of Brookfield or Waukesha city.
The 2nd, firmly anchored in deep blue Madison, could lose some western territory to the 3rd and instead absorb Walworth and the rest of Rock Counties.
And then the 5th would be western Racine/Kenosha/Waukesha added to most of what’s left of the 5th. It would bracket the new 1st and 4th like an upside down L shape.
The other four districts would do just a bit of territory exchange but be largely intact. The 6th would get a little of the existing 5th. If possible, the 8th and 7th might be drawn a little more blue (the 8th is not safe in a wave year as is, and it cannot be redrawn at the expense of the 7th since Obey turns 70 this year and the seat may well be open in the next decade) and the 3rd a little more red. If we can get seats 1-4, 7 and 8 to all lean blue by concentrating Republicans in the 5th and 6th, it would be a good strategic sacrifice to do so.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania: http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine: http://www.dailykos.com/...