We are all awaiting and hoping for a "bounce" in the polls from Obama's trip. I think that the concept of a bounce is overrated. I remember the Dukakis bounce, and we all remember the Kerry Administration. It is more important to look at the long term implications of Obama's trip than worry about a few percentage points in July polls.
Obama is slowly and steadily increasing his base. After clinching the nomination he first had to win over disaffected Democrats. So far he appears to have done that with a few vocal exceptions. Now he is trying to win over Independents, but that will take time. Not everyone follows the election as closely as those on Daily Kos. They are first getting to know Obama.
So far he has made a good first impression. He has shown that he can deal effectively with world leaders while McCain is flaying at the air. Next Obama will deal with the number one issue--the economy. He can play Governor Sanford's stumbling attempt to differentiate McCain from Bush. The more he ties McCain to Mr. 28% the stronger he will be.
In the Fall the debates will be used to "close th deal". As we have seen it is not hard to get McCain to lose his temper. If Obama can get McCain to cooperate before 80 Million people watching on television the game is over.
There are 102 days before Election Day. Obama knows that it is important not to peak too soon. Therefore in the long run it is not important how this trip affects poll numbers, but how it affects perceptions of Obama for the Fall.