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Research 2000, which does polling for media organizations including Daily Kos, has just released its first national poll of the presidential race.

Research 2000 for media clients. 7/25-27. Likely voters. MoE 3% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 39
Obama (D) 51
Barr (L) 3
Nader (I) 2

This poll was taken at the height of the "bounce" Obama received for his successful overseas trip, so it might be a bit inflated. Also, the poll is far more charitable toward Obama than the Pollster.com composite, which has the race at Obama 44.7, McCain 41.5 (though this poll hasn't been factored in yet). So like all polling, there's no need to be euphoric over a good result, just like there's no need to be suicidal over a bad one. This is just one more data point out of lots of data points in gauging the state of the race.

On the other hand, last week's WSJ/NBC poll gave Obama a 13-point lead when including Barr and Nader, so perhaps this poll isn't so crazy after all.

That said, what do this poll's crosstabs tell us (fully published below the fold)?

For one, Bush is at 22 percent approval rating. No one likes him or fears him. Well, except Congressional Democrats, of course, which is probably why they're at 13 percent approval. Meanwhile, Latinos flock to Obama 65-24. Too bad Latinos won't vote for the black guy, huh? By the time this is all over, Obama will have won them at least 70-30. Mark my words.

R2K is also projecting that if the election were held today, Obama would win 322 EVs to McCain's 216. Though R2K doesn't break it down, there's several ways to get there. Assuming Obama wins all the Kerry states (a safe assumption at this point), he could get to 322 by winning Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and North Dakota (or Montana or Alaska). Or, he can win the Kerry states plus Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The latter path would seem more likely at this point.

But perhaps most interesting about the R2K results is the geographic breakdown:

          Obama  McCain  Barr  Nader

NORTHEAST  59%    32%     1%     2%
SOUTH      43%    48%     5%     1%
MIDWEST    53%    37%     3%     2%
WEST       52%    37%     2%     3%

It's kind of easy to dismiss these numbers. The Northeast is skewed by NY. The West is skewed by California. But shouldn't McCain be doing better in the south? There aren't any hotbeds of Democratic support down there to skew numbers. And what about the Midwest, even if you account for Illinois?

Well, let's compare these numbers to the Bush/Kerry 2004 results:

                Kerry   Bush

Northeast (22%)  56%     43%
South (32%)      42%     58%
Midwest (26%)    48%     51%
West (20%)       50%     49%

Obama has increased his advantages in the northeast over Kerry's in 2004 by a healthy 12 points. No one has any doubt that the northeast, except perhaps for New Hampshire, will be solidly blue. The South is showing huge Democratic gains, from a minus-16 loss in 2004, to a measly minus-5 in this poll. This bodes well in Florida and even Georgia and Mississippi, which are mathematically in reach if the African American vote turns out in historic numbers.

The West is also swinging heavier toward Obama than it did Kerry, probably reflecting the solid leads Obama enjoys in Washington and Oregon, not to mention the gains Democrats have made in Colorado and smaller states like North Dakota and Montana.

But the midwest .... here's where we're seeing the most dramatic gains. Bush won the region 51-48 in 2004, and that included heavily Democratic Illinois. It was that narrow victory in the region that allowed Bush to win Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio while keeping Wisconsin and Michigan in play (and Kerry tied up).  Yet today, if R2K is correct, Obama would win the region by 16 points. Some of that is an even bigger margin of victory in Illinois (Kerry won it by nine points in 2004), but a lot of that is the wider margins in places like Minnesota and Wisconsin, plus Obama's strong showings in Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana.

All in all, there's not a lot of good news in here for McCain. He's got a tough slog ahead of him.

The Research 2000 National Poll was conducted for a consortium of television stations and newspapers from July 25 through July 27, 2006. A total of 1100 likely voters nationally were interviewed by telephone. All stated they vote always or almost always when there is a statewide election. A cross-section of calls was made into each state in the country to reflect voting patterns in presidential elections.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 3% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire voting population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region.

DEMOGRAPHICS:

Men           516     (47%)                                                        
Women         584     (53%)

Democrats     407     (37%)
Republicans   276     (25%)
Independents  320     (29%)  
Other/Refused  97      (9%)

White         792     (72%)
Black         154     (14%)
Latino        143     (13%)
Other/Ref      11      (1%)

18-29         209     (19%)
30-44         352     (32%)
45-59         308     (28%)
60+           231     (21%)

Northeast     242     (22%)
South         331     (30%)
Midwest       297     (27%)
West          230     (21%)


Research 2000's electoral college projection as of July 27 is:

Obama  322
McCain 216


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, John McCain, the Republican, Bob Barr, the Libertarian, or Ralph Nader, an Independent?

             OBAMA     MCCAIN     BARR     NADER     OTHER     UND
                                               
ALL           51%       39%        3%        2%        1%        4%

MEN           45%       45%        4%        2%        1%        3%
WOMEN         56%       34%        2%        2%        1%        5%

DEM           82%        9%        1%        3%        1%        4%
REP           10%       83%        3%        1%        1%        2%
IND           50%       39%        5%        2%        1%        3%
OTH/REF       42%       40%        4%        3%        -        11%    

WHITE         41%       49%        4%        2%        1%        3%
BLACK         90%        4%        -         -         -         6%
LATINO        65%       24%        1%        1%        -         9%
OTHER/REF     83%        7%        -         -         -        10%

18-29         63%       26%        1%        1%        1%        8%
30-44         47%       43%        5%        1%        1%        3%
45-59         54%       38%        3%        3%        1%        1%
60+           42%       47%        1%        3%        1%        6%

NORTHEAST     59%       32%        1%        2%        1%        5%
SOUTH         43%       48%        5%        1%        1%        2%
MIDWEST       53%       37%        3%        2%        1%        4%
WEST          52%       37%        2%        3%        1%        5%


QUESTION: Which candidate for President has run a more positive campaign?
                       
OBAMA   MCCAIN   NOT SURE
                                                 
 50%     31%     19%


QUESTION: Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress this November?

DEMOCRATS  REPUBLICANS  NOT SURE
                                                 
   51%       37%       12%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

APPROVE   DISAPPROVE

   22%       78%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing?

APPROVE   DISAPPROVE   NOT SURE

   13%       81%        6%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Democrats in Congress are doing?

APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE

   29%       64%       7%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing?

APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE

   18%       73%        9%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:49 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Woof (21+ / 0-)

    Look at the South.

    "Solid" my Okie ass! Go Obama!

    McCain/Dickens '08: "Building smokestacks out of children... for the future!"

    by droogie6655321 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:52:40 AM PDT

    •  Democrat need to fight the South! (10+ / 0-)

      Maybe not winning this time, but they definitely need to lay the groundwork and give it a tough fight. The south is winnable, economy is down hard and people are grumbling. But Democrats are retreating. Completely disorganized and corrupt.

      Where is Hillary and her "hard working white american"? TN, AK, KY, WV are all this territory. Appalachia.

      •  I don't know. . . (5+ / 0-)

        Barr is pulling a healthy amount in the South that may grow the more McC[ompl]ain fucks up. We may be able to take a couple of those states in the South, especially if we can get the AA and Youth turnout. . .

        Why does God love Barack Obama?

        ~Jon Stewart commenting on the oil spill/hurricane that caused McC[ompl]ain to cancel visit to oil rig.

        by Muzikal203 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:58:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, it's an easy double-down (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TheUnknown285, Dustee

        The economic message will appeal to the Southerners in general, and emphasis will also help African-American turnout. Depending on how things shake out, I could see massive pushes in FL, GA, VA and NC towards the end of October/early November to ramp up enthusiasm and ensure big AA turnout.

        Big AA turnout--as Kos says, historical AA turnout--will send Obama over the top, big-time.

        "Kid, we don't like your kind, and we're gonna send your fingerprints off to Washington."--Alice's Restaurant

        by ekthesy on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:14:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Assuming, which I do not, (0+ / 0-)

          that all the new african-american voters are not denied their chance to vote -- whether by purging of voting rolls, or those infamous 'defective' voting machines.

          •  no way (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GayHillbilly, Dustee

            we're busting out ass down here in florida and there WILL be a huge youth and AA turnout as well as the traditional voter turnouts.

            And we're organizing in MY little red side of the county to set up volunteer shifts to VIDEO MONITOR the precincts all day long.

            won't be no funny shit this time. Florida's going BLUE and it will be indisputable.

            Give Em Hell!! OBAMA 08

            by mdmslle on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:46:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  NC has good monitoring (0+ / 0-)

            because of its Jim Crowe history, NC is one of the states that the Supreme Court set up tracking regs for - so it has to monitor elections pretty closely (tracking AA vote, etc.).  While there are occasional local voting issues, recounts and whatnot, there doesn't seem to be any legacy of disenfranchisement here.  Moreover, the state government is overwhelmingly Democrat - from the Governor on down - so it's not like there's any motivation for them to work against "their guy."

            The demographics here have changed far more than polling models have noticed - since 2004, the state has seen an influx of Democratic voters.  Obama's camp did an amazing job of registering new voters for the primary, especially on and around the campuses.  Yes, there is a large African-American population, and yes, getting out the vote there will be important.  But there is a broader Democratic coalition here than many realize.  Obama's primary victory here was not just a "red state win" that boosted his delegate count.  It was groundwork for a November win in NC.

        •  DNC is still sleeping (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GayHillbilly, thisniss, mdmslle

          This is what they haven't realized.  McCain is NOT flying in the south. He can't talk and he doesn't look good!

          So if Obama force McCain to compete and give talk in the south. His poll will implode.  Obama only need to give speech with a bright up coming young democrat. Rile up the public.

          Just make McCain fight and talk in the south, he is toast... McCain right now is coasting on GOP perception. Shatter that perception by making people listen to him. he will sink.

      •  Be good to have Obama win at least 1 south state (5+ / 0-)

        Give him credibility as a truly national President. If he lost the whole Confederacy, we could expect Southern Republicans to denounce him as "not my President" and Southern Democrats to maybe feel like they had to distance themselves from him.

        Seems to me Virginia is therefore a must-win state, even though he could get elected without it.  Mississippi and North Carolina are possible as well, maybe others.

        "...And I woulda got away with it, if it hadn't been for that meddling Kos!" ---attributed to Tom DeLay

        by AdmiralNaismith on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:26:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, Obama's running stronger in the South (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mwm341, thisniss

      than McCain is running in any other part of the country.

    •  USA Today Poll out moments ago - No Bounce! (0+ / 0-)

      July 28, 2008
      Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll

      Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.

      •  bhwsahahahaha (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        thisniss

        right. I am glad they are seeing this shit b/c I really really want McCain to think its close. Any level headed person knows better. I don't want the T+RNC to try to oust him.

        YEAH USA TODAY! keep the race tight until after the conventions.

        Give Em Hell!! OBAMA 08

        by mdmslle on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:49:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  He's getting 43% in the south? (14+ / 0-)

    That's great! And we haven't even gotten into high gear yet with the campaigning!

    Why does God love Barack Obama?

    ~Jon Stewart commenting on the oil spill/hurricane that caused McC[ompl]ain to cancel visit to oil rig.

    by Muzikal203 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:53:10 AM PDT

  •  why doesn't RealClearPolitics (3+ / 0-)

    have this Research 2000 poll on their website?

  •  I'm worried about McCain's scorched Earth tactics (5+ / 0-)

    Worried that he's going to make this too easy. I like atleast a little suspense...

    PUMA... Pimples Under My Ass

    by OReillysNightmare on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:53:46 AM PDT

  •  Has any major presidential candidate... (8+ / 0-)

    ...ever gotten under 40% in the national popular vote? I find a 39% polling number unbelievable.

    Although, I find it entertaining that 29% approve of the Democrats in Congress, 18% approve of the Republicans in Congress yet only 13% approve of Congress. That's freaking hilarious.

  •  Obama is killing him in the 18-29 crowd (13+ / 0-)

    we have to make sure all of those people "Barack the vote"!

    Why does God love Barack Obama?

    ~Jon Stewart commenting on the oil spill/hurricane that caused McC[ompl]ain to cancel visit to oil rig.

    by Muzikal203 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:54:59 AM PDT

  •  Hey - (5+ / 0-)

    It's not just NY skewing. We love him here in CT as well!

  •  Thank God! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gowrie Gal, dennisl, TheUnknown285

    cause the Repubicans are so stupid that the only way they can win anything is by cheating. And they want your kid's degree to have less value than their Monica Goodling's degree.
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    donate to a shelter box please http://www.shelterboxusa.org/

    by TexMex on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:55:19 AM PDT

  •  Don't Get Complacent (5+ / 0-)

    I am as happy as anyone to see these numbers, but let's keep our feet on the ground, our nose to the grind, our eyes on the prize, and all those other lofty metaphors.

  •  And there's no guy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    beltane

    more ill-prepared, it seems, for a "tough slog" than John McSame.

    An "easy stumble" would be a better scenario.

    If we continue to accumulate only power and not wisdom, we will surely destroy ourselves. -Carl Sagan

    by LightningMan on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:56:48 AM PDT

  •  How do you explain this? (9+ / 0-)

    Democrats in Congress have a 29% approval rating.  Republicans in have an 18% approval rating.  However, the performance of Congress as a whole is approved by 13%.

    Clearly, Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are dragging down the two major parties in a big way ;-)

    You can lead a Republican to the facts, but you can't make him think.

    by Greasy Grant on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:56:49 AM PDT

    •  The very word "Republican" provokes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheUnknown285

      more negative reaction?  Sounds like a lot of folks are not blaming Dems primarily for problems with Congress.  

    •  The extra disapproval is for the gridlock (4+ / 0-)

      in the Senate, and a ritual loathing of Congress generally.

    •  It's the "other guys' fault". (0+ / 0-)

      These high disapproval Congressional polls, especially as a national election draws near, are nothing new. The most important question is "How do you rate your own Congressperson?" By and large, except for the 10% or so in-play seats, the current Congressperson is rated good enough. It's always the other Congresspersons who are at fault. That's why even a 10% turnover, e.g. 44 seats in the House of Representatives, would be a political earthquake.

    •  300M Americans Are Not "A Rational Person" (0+ / 0-)

      22% of Americans approve of Bush. 40% of us approve of the same or worse in WcCain.

      Americans, treated as a single entity, are batshit crazy.

      "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

      by DocGonzo on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:36:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Everyone agrees that congress isn't working (0+ / 0-)

      they differ in how they apportion the blame.

      I would actually like to see partisan breakdowns of those numbers. If we assume that all R's believe D's are doing a bad job and vice versa, we still have close to half of R's not approving of their own party. For D's the view is a little rosier - and they also have the burden of being in the majority (which ought to lead to larger association with congress as a whole)

      The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends towards justice.

      by Lesser Dane on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:41:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Look at those Congress disapproval ratings! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, sherlyle, beltane

    No wonder the Republicans are scared, THEY get more blame for the screw-up that is Congress than the Democrats. . .

    Why does God love Barack Obama?

    ~Jon Stewart commenting on the oil spill/hurricane that caused McC[ompl]ain to cancel visit to oil rig.

    by Muzikal203 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:56:49 AM PDT

  •  Looks a lot like a "surge" wouldn't you say. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sherlyle, BenDisraeli
  •  Some might believe (0+ / 0-)

    at 22% we have no leadership.  America the last eight years did not have a leader.

    "Sometimes I wish I could change my nickname" Me

    by givemhellHarryR on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:57:01 AM PDT

  •  Win the Mississippi, win the election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky, TheUnknown285

    Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Tennesee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana

    Together they're 99 Electoral votes that often fluctuate.

    We're likely to pull 59 of those 99 this cycle and maybe more (depending on if Obama can dislodge Arkansas and Tennessee.)

    "When the President does it, it's not illegal" - Richard Nixon, 1974; US Congress, 2008

    by nightsweat on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:57:30 AM PDT

  •  wooo McCain is suffering. YES! I wouldnt want (3+ / 0-)

    to help him, but if I worked for his campaign I would be advising a BOLD VP pick, not what anyone would expect and maybe a 'first' if you will... the man needs something to get some zing in his camp (Though I hope he doesnt get it, cause these polls are too good)

    Like Pelosi said "The Republicans are BANKRUPT!"

    •  MSNBC reporting McCain had a mole (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MoDem, TheUnknown285, LearningCurve

      removed from his face, possibly cancerous.  Is this the start of the "My friends, I'm sorry to report I must withdraw from this race due to my health" mad scramble?  

    •  That would be a good idea (0+ / 0-)

      If you buy the opinion that a desperate McCain is resorting to making personal attacks on his opponent in July, you may be on to something.

      Although whom would be a bold pick and would want to run with McCain?  Bloomberg or one of the Gruesome Business Twosome (Fiorina/Whitman) would be likely candidates.

      At this point, I don't think the McCain camp really cares what baggage the VP nominee carries, as they're betting the media and public won't notice anyway. So Fiorina would make a good choice, I suppose. I'm still betting on Romney or Thune, but Fiorina would energize the campaign more than those two wankers.

      "Kid, we don't like your kind, and we're gonna send your fingerprints off to Washington."--Alice's Restaurant

      by ekthesy on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:01:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  another Republican businessman (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ekthesy

        John Chambers of Cisco, where I worked for several years, has a ton of leadership and charisma. His politics are way on the wrong side of the aisle, but he could charm the skin off a rattlesnake.

        As a shareholder, I've often been tempted to send him email (chambers@cisco.com, no mystery how to contact him) trying to explain how embarrassing his political stands and fundraising are, for an otherwise quite progressive company.

        •  If you're going to pick from Big Business (0+ / 0-)

          it's a wild enough choice that he might as well pick a woman...that would be the news, that McCain picked a female VP nominee, not that she was from corporate America and that she ran her company into the ground.

          "Kid, we don't like your kind, and we're gonna send your fingerprints off to Washington."--Alice's Restaurant

          by ekthesy on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:16:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting (3+ / 0-)

    Nice job posting the crosstabs, Kos...I see that the Congressional Dems have a 30% approval, and the Repubs only 18%.

    That's somewhat important...we need the public to at least have an apathetic view of Congress so as not to hurt Obama by their impotence.

    Obama '08
    More/Better '08

    "Kid, we don't like your kind, and we're gonna send your fingerprints off to Washington."--Alice's Restaurant

    by ekthesy on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:57:59 AM PDT

  •  Too Much Good News for Dems (9+ / 0-)

    You know what THAT means!

    TIME FOR SOME TERROR ALERTS!

    Get out your Daily Kos Orange!  It's time for a Higher Alert Party!!!

    And NO ONE CAN SAVE US BUT GRAMPA JOHN!!!

    •  Need to start marketing Grampy McSame branded (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sherlyle, TheUnknown285

      duct tape and plastic sheeting

      There once was a man named mccain, who had the whole white house to gain, but he was quite a hobbyist of boning his lobbyist, so much for his 08 campaign. SC

      by christomento on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:02:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And this time...it's our fault! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sherlyle

        Yes, now when we have a TERROR ALERT ... it's not a defensive move of painting everything orange and duct taping our windows.

        It's actually a time when terrorists can feel free to romp all over us!  And well, republicans can raise or lower this alert anytime they wish.  So better not vote for a dem...or MAYBE THEY'LL JUST RAISE IT AND LEAVE IT UP!!!

        This is what the Department of Homeland Security is quietly declaring a Period of Heightened Alert, or POHA, a time frame when terrorists may have more incentive to attack.

        Imagine...a terror alert that actually invites terrorism.  What a cool campaign tool!

        VOTE FOR GRAMPA JOHN AND NO ONE GETS HURT!!!

  •  Breaking: McCain has mole removed after medical (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TenthMuse

    Check up. They are checking to see if it is cancerous or not.

    McCain/(Hagee+Parsley) '08 "We Hunt Jews and Muslims So You Dont Have To. Straight Talk"

    by DFutureIsNow on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:58:37 AM PDT

  •  I can't wait to see all of the goings on at the (6+ / 0-)

    GOP convention.

    It's gonna be a fright-fest.

    ::::

  •  Obama's move to right-of-center is working! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, LaughingPlanet

    Brilliant for Obama to move to right of center on the War On Terror (which makes the FISA "spying" crucial to keep America safe), and his embrace of Israel and backing Israel without conditions.  Americans are realizing that Obama will not radically alter our War On Terror (in fact, he comittted to get even more aggressive) and he will not be the socialist progressive they feared.  

      •  Don't think so. (0+ / 0-)

        Newer UID means poster might have missed the FISA firestorm here.

        In fact, if you read the post, there are some good points if the numbers are viewed from a wider stance (sorry, Larry Craig).

        The "bounce" may have more to do with these points than we in the "instant results" blogosphere may realize.

        •  Of course there was a firestorm on FISA. (0+ / 0-)

          But Obama was wise to get this out there and over with early.  Let the radical elements of the Democratic party vent their spleens for a while - they'll come back around.  Aleady, FISA is fading in the glow of Obama's triumphs last week, and it's still only July!  FISA is a non issue.  

    •  As a satirist... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GayHillbilly

      ... you are no Oscar Wilde.

      PUMA... Pimples Under My Ass

      by OReillysNightmare on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:07:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obama is a brilliant polititian. (0+ / 0-)

        Candidates must move to the center after their respective nominations.  What Obama has done has gained him favor with a larger part of America.  After the Germany event, it's clear that Obama has an appeal that is limitless.  His positions on the War On Terror, Israel, and FISA will do nothing to hurt him long term with those radical elements of the Democratic party.  They are positions every prudent American politician must take, and Obama has moved to them seamlessly.

        Obama's appeal is broadening.  This is just the start.  The sky is the limit.

  •  There might not be much good news for McCain (7+ / 0-)

    but the traditional media will fabricate some for him. Let's see, Obama's support in the NE is at 59%, why so low? Why not 80%? He must be having a tough time with Catholics and Jews for his numbers to be so low.

    And, hah, Bob Barr is really hurting McShame in the South.

    The weak in courage is strong in cunning-William Blake

    by beltane on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:00:34 AM PDT

    •  The obvious one (4+ / 0-)

      is that Obama is losing the white vote.

      •  So Did Kerry and Gore (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GayHillbilly

        In 2004, Bush beat Kerry among Whites 58:41%. In 2000, Bush beat Gore among Whites 54:42%.

        WcCain beating Obama among Whites in 2008 49:41% would be cutting the Republican lead by 10 points from 2004, and by 4 points from 2000. While the White fraction of voters has steadily shrunk, from 81% in 2000 to 77% in 2004, to 72% in this poll.

        So the "Whites for/against Obama" story is yet another showing Obama winning.

        Which is why we won't hear it that way.

        In other news, "Obama still losing majority of Republicans who dislike WcCain".

        "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

        by DocGonzo on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:49:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's good to see (0+ / 0-)

          Obama doing well among white voters, but the 2000 election should not be compared due to the shadow of Clinton scandal/impeachment fatigue hanging over that election badly (we had an intense anybody but Bush movement in 2004 and a several Bush fatigue this year, in comparison) along with a completely reckless media before resistance in the form of the netroots emerged to set the facts straight.

          Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

          by NeuvoLiberal on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 02:05:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Comparable (0+ / 0-)

            All elections are comparable, as long as they're compared properly, weighted by how they differ. If you disagree, you agree to never read a single poll, because they're all weighted exactly that way, from their raw Q&A data.

            The comparison between Bush fatigue and Clinton fatigue is apt. The difference is that only about 40% (practically all Republicans) had Clinton fatigue, while about 70% has Bush fatigue, and many more are more "spitting mad" now than "fatigued".

            The reckless media is still strong, even stronger in its new monopoly unity, though the Internet (and not just the "netroots") is a much stronger - though not entirely new factor since 2000. The Internet of course has its share of liars, some highly funded (like corporate media websites) and persuasive (like Drudge, CNN, plenty of "whisper campaigns").

            We are already seeing the effects of the different environment in Obama's leads, but we see so much of exactly the same Bush-friendly environment in WcCain's strong survival.

            Comparing these elections, even to ones even further out of context, are essential to strategies for victory. Like to 1952, the last nonincumbent race. Or to 1932, as has been extensively explored as a "change" election in DKos. Failing to compare them is to run blind. And no one in the business in any capacity is doing anything like that.

            "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

            by DocGonzo on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 03:52:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  asdf (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DocGonzo

              Obama was about 8-10% ahead of McCain a year ago (in fact, 7/2007 was Obama's best GE poll standing month thus far in the entire campaign) although his name ID was only a weak ID 80% or so back then (and McCain had very high name ID for many years by then). His average lead this month has been about 5%. Sure, HRC beat up Obama (and helped McCain), but even if you quantify the PUMA effect at 3-6%, adding that to 5% only puts Obama roughly even with where he was in 7/2007 (which is not great given that he has had an enormous money advantage over McCain; by contrast, on the money front, Gore was badly out-raised by Bush; after taking public funds for the general, Gore was still short: $130mn to Bush's $190mn. I attribute Gore's poor fund-raising as well as media going easy on him partly to the sustained double-digit deficits he inherited for he would've raised more had he been ahead or tied and the media would've been less ready to smear him under that scenario. Obama raised in 1.5 month more than what Gore raised all through his 15 month campaign; part of that is due to anti-GOP/Bush fervor, part of it good use of the tools available by the Obama campaign and Obama's campaign, but I think credit is due Gore for pushing the internet through the halls of government (like no one else) for decades to help bring it towards it's current state of development. Unfortunately, the internet didn't come of age enough to help Gore, but instead cost him dearly (thanks again to the MSM peddling the Gore/internet meme and to bad guys like Drudge and the Nader crowd getting there first to carry out their smear campaigns against Gore)).

              By contrast, Gore trailed by some 17-18% on the average in 7/1999, but before the GOP convention, he brought it down to about 5-10% behind, despite the non-stop smearing by the media; a decent gain under the circumstances. After the GOP convention, Bush went back up to 15%, but Gore evened it out at the Dem. convention.

              Comparing Obama's July'07 lead of 8% with Gore's 17% deficit in July of 1999 gives us a good estimate of the starting comparative climate advantage Obama (and other Dems) this cycle had over Gore's situation: 8-(-17) = 25% edge in the spread. That's a whopping number considering how closely divided the electorate has been.

              Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

              by NeuvoLiberal on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 04:18:52 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  'severe Bush fatigue' (0+ / 0-)

            I am doing far worse than my usual with stupid and careless typos today. My bad!

            Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

            by NeuvoLiberal on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 03:56:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  MSNBC consistently saying (5+ / 0-)

      his bounce will disappear. And someone covering the White House is ragging about Obama not visiting the troops and not giving a consistent response.

      "Statistics are people with the tears washed away." Sociologist Ruth Sidel

      by Vicky on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:10:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  his bounce will disappear (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        missLotus

        he's down one point in the Gallup and down three in the Rasmussen from his peak.

        Modest bounce, but the dynamics are unchanged. Obama continues to lead, McCain struggles to get to 45%.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:37:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama being from the Midwest (7+ / 0-)

    is right in an electoral college sweet spot. Maybe should've run a Midwesterner before?

  •  ! (0+ / 0-)

    Who let the dogs out?

    "Fear not the path of truth for the lack of people walking on it." -RFK

    by jfarelli on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:02:03 AM PDT

  •  Watch them: they'll drop McCain (6+ / 0-)

    Let's assume the Obama team continues to play nearly perfect ball and dishes up a winner of a veep rollout, winner veep, and convention.  Obama, entering the convention with a 7-10 pt lead, will likely leave with a 17-20 pt lead.  

    Unless...

    The day of Obama's big speech, I follow up on some media leaks about McCain health concerns with an announcement from McCain that he will drop out of the race due to his health.  This sucks some energy from the Obama machine.

    The Republicans, in fact, state they will let the convention pick the nominee.  DRAMA! For PRIMETIME! Ensuring Americans are forcefed Republic claptrap for a week.  And of course the networks will HAVE TO cover it, unlike Obama's convention (because, you know, that stadium deal costs too much).  Anyway...

    The Republicans put on a show and come up with...

    Huckabee/Hutchinson

    The Huckster, I hate to say it, runs well against Obama and PROBABLY takes back most of the south, including VA, GA, NC and FL.  The map becomes more traditional.  Huck then heads to Ohio and talks his faux populism as only he can.  

    He wouldn't win-- he wouldn't have to.  He would keep the evangelicals in the fold and turned out, minimize losses in House and Senate, and lose respectably (think Gerald Ford).  No Obama mandate. 56 Dem Senators instead of 59.  

    If McCain continues to be so inept, that's what I'd do.

    Bush will be impeached.

    by jgkojak on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:02:11 AM PDT

  •  Reality continues to intrude on winger's universe (8+ / 0-)

    Boortz today opined that Obama had insulted the troops of WWII when he gave his speech in Berlin because he didn't mention Harry Truman or the Army Air Corp or the pilots who lost their lives in the Berlin airlift; instead of using the opportunity to point out how those sneaky Soviets tried to kick the US out of Berlin and how Berlin was saved by the US, Obama instead praised the forbearance of the German people and their willingness as a people to undergo suffering. (praising whiney burghermeisters when he should have been praising Give em Hell Harry)

    To contrast McCain gave a speech today clearly explaining in detail how the Surge saved Iraq from al Qaeda. McCain's speech was superior to any speech by Lincoln, FDR or JFK or even Reagan.  McCain is the New Millenial Henry Clay, the Cicero of the 21st century, putting classical rhetoricians such as Demosthenes to shame.

    Obama may be picking up support from some people who have finally realized that all they are getting from the Right is more of the same BS.

       

    •  There is a right-wing blogger in OR (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheUnknown285, Matt Z, entlord1

      Who is seriously deluded.  The guy thinks Obama is somehow losing now.  Of course this is the same guy who thinks that either of the statewide R candidates (Treasurer and SOS) has a shot in hell...

      "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

      by skywaker9 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:06:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  um...kos? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9, Vicky, Lesser Dane, Matt Z

    Meanwhile, Latinos flock to Obama 65-24. Too bad Latinos won't vote for the black guy, huh? By the time this is all over, Obama will have won them at least 70-30. Mark my words.

    65-24 is better than 70-30

    I'm just sayin

  •  Notice McCain .... (5+ / 0-)

    ...isn't even reaching 50% with white voters.

    Obama will close that 41% - 49% percent gap as more white people (especially Southerners) come to realize what a monumental bust McCain is while concurrently realizing Obama  is articulating their interests.

    Anyway, if McCain can't reach 50% approval among whites, that portends a very depressing election night for the McComplain camp.

    "The thought of [McCain] being president sends a cold chill down my spine."-Senator Thad Cochran, Mississippi Republican.

    by wyvern on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:05:18 AM PDT

  •  The Loser look. (8+ / 0-)

    One of the big problems McCain will have with his own base is that he increasingly is looking like a loser. No matter how much the press wants a close race, political operatives in the GOP know that McCain is getting WEAKER by the day, since Obama is essentially running down the clock on him. This is going to force some desperation, allowing Obama to push McCain increasingly into "urgency" before Obama gets there.

    The McCain campaign is trying to figure out how to get Obama's numbers down, while the Obama campaign has more time to dot i's and cross t's.

    With him from the beginning, with him until the end.

    by brooklynbadboy on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:09:48 AM PDT

  •  I don't usually (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9
  •  Thanks for all that information.... (0+ / 0-)

    I'm pleased to see that, as of now, the only place McCain is ahead is in the south.

    But I'm also stunned to discover that Bush had as much support in the northeast in 2004 as he did.

  •  70-30 Hispanic vote? Kos, I hope you are right! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    Do we have a breakdown of Florida Cubans?

    I'm a white working class male, over 30 military veteran, small town gun owner, former Bush supporter, and I'm voting for Barack Obama.

    by InfiniteNether on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:15:29 AM PDT

    •  florida has more latinos than just cubans (0+ / 0-)

      as a matter of fact i would not be surprised if the numbers of cubans was equal or less than the combined number of mexican and and puerto ricans in the state.

      Give Em Hell!! OBAMA 08

      by mdmslle on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:21:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We also have many Guatemalans, (0+ / 0-)

        but many of them didn't come here legally, which means they can't vote anyway.

        Economic Left/Right: -3.88; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.79

        by joshc123 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:56:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Florida is the new Puerto Rican destination (0+ / 0-)

        I read a study (can't find the link) that said Florida will have more Puertoricans in the next 5 years than New York State. I believe there are about 600,000 thousand already there, mainly in the Orlando area. That, along with many other Central American groups, is changing the balance of power away from Cubans. In 10 years, they'll probably manage to start getting their own candidates elected.

  •  Why does dkos LLC waste its money... (0+ / 0-)

    commissioning polls that are identical to those commissioned by a dozen other media organizations?

    •  this poll was not commissioned by daily kos (0+ / 0-)

      instead it was commissioned by a number of media outlets.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:33:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Markos - what about the cheating? (0+ / 0-)

    the Palast-related diary about votes being thrown out in the swing states?
    I mean, we can try to compensate but is there any way to stop those desperate bastards?

    Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.

    by DiAnne on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:18:14 AM PDT

  •  Hard to compare 2-person vs 4-person polls (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, sherlyle, mrchumchum

    It may be hard to compare 2-person vs 4-person polls, although I think that the 4-person polls (with Barr and Nader) are the more appropriate thing to do at this time. My working assumption is to simply add the Barr and Nader vote to McCain's vote, although this may be slightly too generous to McCain.

    It is good that Obama is over the 50% margin in this poll. That has clear psychological advantages. As for Barr (especially) and Nader, their effect on Nov. 4 will be largely determined by whether they are included in the 3 national debates. Their inclusion would assure them of getting in the 1% range at least, and Barr might push above 3% in a few states. That would be very bad for McCain. Look for the McCain camp to resist having Barr included, as Barr would be showing him up in the debates.

    A 4-person debate would be a visual joy: 3 old white guys against one youthful, energetic new face.

  •  Nader Steals 3% From Obama (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, typo ink

    PARTY     OBAMA     MCCAIN     BARR     NADER     OTHER     UND
    DEM           82%        9%        1%        3%        1%        4%
    REP           10%       83%        3%        1%        1%        2%
    IND           50%       39%        5%        2%        1%        3%
    OTH/REF    42%       40%        4%        3%        -        11%    

    According to that poll, Nader gets 3% of Democrats, 1% of Republicans, canceling Barr's inverse appeal. Barr's 5% of independents might be 2.5x the effect of Nader, but those people are going Obama 5:4, so losing them to anyone but the clearly Republican Barr is very possibly a net loss for Obama. Nader is a deranged fool.

    His strategy of running to the left of Democrats so Democrats will move left sounds like a good idea, but it's been proven wrong every time. The Democrats don't move left because of it (though that would indeed get them more votes, if they did it with confidence - not from fear of Nader). And Democrats lose without Nader's voters. Now, of course Gore and Kerry are about 20x more to blame for losing (about 50% to about 2-3%)  than Nader is to blame. But every point counts, and Nader's campaigns steal points from Democrats.

    The proof is in Bush's two terms, and Gore/Kerry/Nader's zero terms.

    Nader should run, then quit and endorse Obama in October. Unless he wants to be right on paper again, and as wrong as a WcCain presidency he helps into office yet again.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:22:59 AM PDT

    •  although oddly enough Nader takes McCain votes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      typo ink

      in the polls, where Obama polls about the same with or without him and McCain polls lower.

      Maybe they are PUMAs, I don't know.

      •  Oops, you beat me, but I agree, it's PUMAs (0+ / 0-)

        They choose McCain in a 2-way match-up but Nader in a 4-way matchup.  So it's obvious that they really don't want to vote for McCain, except for a very very select deranged few.  Historical evidence shows that these voters will come home to Obama as November nears, and I think it will happen again this year.

      •  Where? (0+ / 0-)

        Where's the poll that shows M:O vs M:O:N percentages?

        "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

        by DocGonzo on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:55:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  you can't assume Naders' votes go for Obama (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      typo ink
      1. 2 way vs 4 way polls always show a bigger Obama vote 4 way (see NBC/WSJ - +6 two way and +13 in a four way).
      1. Nader voters are fairly irrational

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:32:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Need 3-Way (0+ / 0-)

        I assume only that Nader's voters would otherwise go more for Obama than for McCain. That is fairly reasonable, since Nader runs to the left of Obama. And because Nader and Obama are the outsiders. I don't see much recommending Nader to people who'd vote McCain, except the racists running away from the Republicans who don't know anything about Nader - or are just total kooks. As real as those people are, they're not as many as the people who vote exactly the way Nader's strategy expects they do: Democratic. And not quite as insane as their WcCain/Barr/Paul/Galt counterparts.

        But neither of us know unless we can compare a 2-way Obama:McCain poll to a 3-way with Nader, for proper deduction.

        "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

        by DocGonzo on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:59:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Well polls that ask with and without Nader/Barr (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LearningCurve

      show that including Nader actually helps Obama.

      I think this is because the last of the disaffected Hillary voters who aren't quite ready to back Obama pick McCain in an Obama/McCain only matchup.  But when Nader is included, they pick Nader, thus expanding Obama's margin.  I think as the election nears, these disaffected Dems will come home, as they historically tend to do.  And when they do, Obama will take a large lead.

    •  yeah but these are percentages not EC splits (0+ / 0-)

      I get your point but if the Naderites come from say, CA, they don;t factor in. Its hard to tell what the overall effect woudl be because they aren't broken down into state-by-state, you know?

      Either way anyone who votes for these dudes is an idiot.

      Give Em Hell!! OBAMA 08

      by mdmslle on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:25:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Gore started 15-20% behind in polls (0+ / 0-)

      to Bush due to Clinton scandal fatigue.

      Then he was smeared day in and day out by the media before the netroots emerged a few years later. To understand what I mean by this, note that there are dozen and sometimes even hundred of diaries posted here to defend Obama from false spins and smears every day. That's how the holes in MSM/RWNM's spins get exposed to daylight and have a chance to be defeated. There was nothing like that to aid Gore in 2000 (except for a few lone rangers like the Daily Howler) when Gore was attacked and smeared by every Tom, Dick and Harry (RWNM, MSM, Naderwing, etc) for two years, non-stop.

      Under those excruciating conditions, Gore somehow managed to comeback and win the popular vote, a net 16% turnaround from where he began.

      Nader's vote tally of 2.74mn was over times Gore's popular vote margin, which clearly shows that Nader's impact was enormous: Nader made it very hard for Gore to pull away by attacking Gore relentlessly in the final weeks of the campaign and chopping away the margins that Gore needed badly.

      Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

      by NeuvoLiberal on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 02:02:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If he was running a half way decent campaign... (0+ / 0-)

    ...he might have a shot, but if he keeps running his campaign as is, he doesn't stand a chance.

    McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist

    by sgilman on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:26:07 AM PDT

    •  throwing the kitchen sink right now... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LearningCurve

      A "Halfway decent" campaign is one that works....in McCain's case, it's hamstring by the candidate himself, as well as by an inability to find that issue that will wound Obama

      I don't think McCain or his campaign have any real idea right now about how to go about beating Obama, so they're grasping for lifelines, using every possible line of attack....

      if something does stick, the race will tighten, and there will be stories about Mac coming back from the political grave again, even if it means that he closes to within a mere 5 points.

      and then you'll get stories of the McCain campaign getting into shape....ad nauseaous....

  •  Electoral College: 292:195 Obama:WcCain (51 tied) (0+ / 0-)

    Electoral-Vote.com today shows Obama: 292; McCain: 195; Ties 51 in the Electoral College that actually elects a president. Only 279 are needed for victory.

    Those 51 ballots tied up probably all go to Obama in November, except possibly Florida's 27, and also possibly Missouri's 11. Even North and South Dakota's 3 EVs each are within 5% (about the margin of error), and likely to go Obama if just a small overall national (or just in MT, IA and/or MN) rise goes Obama's way.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:28:50 AM PDT

    •  so, uh.... (0+ / 0-)

      the 51 tie votes go to Obama, except for the 38 that might not?

      thanks for the chuckle  

      (meant totally in a "not trying to be mean" way....know all too well about fingers getting ahead of the thought you're trying to express   :)

      And it's 270 for victory, I'm just gonna assume that comes from the same funble fingers hitting the 9 next to the zero you intended....

      •  270, Yes; 51, No (0+ / 0-)

        You're right about my typo on the 270 EVs required for victory.

        But in fact I meant what I wrote about the 51 tied. Like I said, they probably will all go to Obama in November. But it is possible that Florida's 27 won't - just not probable. And less possible, but still actually possible, that Missouri's 11 won't go to Obama.

        "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

        by DocGonzo on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:54:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Why oh why oh why must Ohio be in (0+ / 0-)

    every win scenario.  Lordy.  But sounds like decent news, nonetheless.

    The readiness is all

    by mrchumchum on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:32:22 AM PDT

  •  cross tab Grains of Salt (0+ / 0-)

    As akways, polls a rea snapshot, blah blah blah....

    "we" "like" this poll cuz it's got our guy ahead comfortably....it also had a partisan breakdown or 37-25 in favor of the D's.

    No matter how broken down the Gooper machine seems right now, are they really pulling in only 25% of the vote?

    For that matter, is our side only worth 37?

    Just thinking out loud about how we oughta keep in mind the voters/partisan breakdowns of polls we like, as much as the ones in the polls that we think suck ass....

    •  Actually, it's a reasonable partisan breakdown (0+ / 0-)

      Significant polling on Party ID by firms like Pew Research and Rasmussen show that Dems have 10-11 point advantage.  So a +12 partisan breakdown is more or less in line with those findings, if ever so slightly in our favor.

  •  R's are doen for... (0+ / 0-)

    ...their salvation will come not with a slap on the wrist but with prison time for the malefactors of the Bush subversion of our country for coporate ownership, vast economic and social injustice and promulgation of fascism.

    I would not be surprised to see a strong multi-religious-backed Republican reformation, but not until prosperity and economic opportunity is restored.

    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -Thomas Jefferson

    by ezdidit on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:46:40 AM PDT

  •  "Undecideds" = Code for "Won't Vote For Black Man (0+ / 0-)

    One feature of the primary race between Obama and Clinton were the large number of "undecided"s polled all the way up to the election day.  They also seemed to actually vote disproportionately for Clinton.

    My hypothesis was that some people who had decided they would never vote for a black man, would, for whatever reason, respond in polls that they were "undecided".  Who knows why....

    95% of the poll respondents now stating a preference for one of the candidates, means to me that only 5% are in the "undecided" pool, and a disproportionate break for McCain would not change the outcome of an election where the polls showed a spread of no greater than 3 to 4 points for Obama going in.

    •  The polls in the primaries (0+ / 0-)

      were pretty evenly divided between overstating Clinton's support and overstating Obama's.

      Research seems to indicate that the Bradley effect (what you describe) has largely disappeared.

      The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends towards justice.

      by Lesser Dane on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:24:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  not true (0+ / 0-)

      the undecidedes are exactly that. Undecided.

      As an independent, 40 year old female, although I've voted 4 times in my life, this is the first election where I tuned in before general election debates.

      Seriously.

      The undecideds are not lying. They are not paying close enough attention right now. Its hard to believe but many Americans make their decision at the debates. They are NOT hunting down news article, watching Olbermann or Joe Scarborough and they are certainly NOT hanging out at Kos.

      They really are undecided.

      BTW I have voted (R) twice and (D) twice. I really never decided until I listened to the debates.

      Give Em Hell!! OBAMA 08

      by mdmslle on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:33:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  POLITICO thinks it's dead even again.... (0+ / 0-)

    It's a shame what has happened to religious Democrats.

    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -Thomas Jefferson

    by ezdidit on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:48:02 AM PDT

  •  dueling polls (0+ / 0-)

    Research 2000   OBAMA   UP 12
      Gallup       McCain  UP  4

    FUNNY HOW REAL CLEAR POLITICS ONLY LISTS
    GALLUP USA TODAY

    •  RCP is using USA/Gallups Likely voters... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      daq3405

      Obama's still up 3 with registered voters. They did the same thing with the ABC News/Wash Post poll, which had Obama up 8, but only up 3 with likely voters. I dont know why they cant remain consistent.

      •   REAL CLEAR POLITICS IGNORED MY EMAILS 3 TIMES (0+ / 0-)

        I emailed Real Clear Politics 3 times today to have them include this R2000 survey (which by the way has a larger sample size than the USA Today/Gallup poll) and the NEVER responded to me.

        I believe Real Clear Politics is trying to skew the data

  •  Obama is outperforming Kerry significantly. (0+ / 0-)

    His numbers seem to match those of Bill Clinton.  McCain is doing very poorly in his home region of the west.  It isn't just the pacific coast states.  McCain is underperformingin Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, North Dakota and Montana.  Obama's lead is real.  His only issue is he needs to adopt a populist tone on economic issues and should name a VP that highlights the economy and middle american issues.    

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:59:41 AM PDT

    •  Kerry and Bush were always within 3 of each other (0+ / 0-)

      Bush usually maintained a 1-3 pt lead in most National polls. I remember Kerry never leading in the Wall St Journal/NBC News polls that came out each month. Obama has had a consistent 6-7 pt lead in those polls.

      It's funny when critiques point to the swiftboating of Kerry as an example of a lead evaporating, they show their lack of knowledge of the 2004 race. When you add the fact that Obama is running a historically efficient campaign, the advantages even become greater.

  •  Not to worry too much about NH... (0+ / 0-)

    The polling lately by UNH has been tortured to the point of being useless. Everyone I have met, Independents and Republicans, are upset with the choices on the GOP side this year. During the last Presidential election we through our support to the Democratic candidate. So I wouldn't worry too much about how NH falls. As the crazy irishman said in Braveheart...

    "I wouldn't worry about them. Didn't I tell ya before? It's my island." - Stephen from Braveheart

    When the election comes around you just wait and see! These New Englanders know when to come down from the hills to drive out the likes of McCain. Just as they did during Bush's second term they voted Bush down once they knew what he was doing to the country. They won't stand for a third term by McCain!

    Simply saying "It's my island!",
    Wynter

    "Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job." - Hitchhiker's Guide

    by Wynter on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:00:41 PM PDT

  •  The Undecideds (0+ / 0-)

    The Undecideds are waiting to hear whether its going to be a landslide or not. So if Obama has it all tied up they "won't bother voting" or they will give up on a Republican and go Obama. We just need to make sure not to scare too many back to the couch so Obama ends up losing because of Apathy!

    "Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job." - Hitchhiker's Guide

    by Wynter on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:12:55 PM PDT

  •  'Don't count your winnings sitting at the table' (0+ / 0-)

    Overconfidence lost many elections.

  •  The South - Rising! Tennessee is going BLUE! (0+ / 0-)

    In tandem with competitive Senate Races.

    Please lend an eye toward Tennessee's Bob Tuke, favored to win next week's Democratic Primary and the first to come out for Obama publicly in Tennessee when he declared.

    Tuke deserves some love, y'all!  As his race becomes more competitive, so shall Obamas and vice versa.

    Forget the yellow ribbon thing: Have you joined or donated to Veterans and Military Families for Progress (www.vmfp.org) yet?

    by Maura Satchell on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:39:04 PM PDT

  •  KOS Love your polls.... (0+ / 0-)

    Keep up the good work.

  •  Hillary is the best VP choice. (0+ / 0-)

    I still believe that SHE would get lots of media coverage and she knows her data and won't mind eviserating McCain. (I wonder if a female has more opportunity to slam a war vet?)

    She would make this exciting, and Obama/Kaine is a snooze.

    She is yin to his yang.
    Attack dog to his "above the frey"
    policy wonk to his Big Ideas
    She is FAMILIAR to people and I believe this is Obama's only problem. He is not well known and he is "Exotic" to many. Hillary makes them comfortable.

    •  not sure about that (0+ / 0-)

      although i think they would probably be able to work reasonably well together, i'm not sure about that joint ticket idea just yet.

      My biggest concern is Bill. I think Hillary is a capable person. I do think it would energize the party but I'm not sure if it wouldn't also energize the rethugs...lord knows they need energizing. Also not sure whether she loses him the independent vote (I'm an indie and i'm very lukewarm about her. very).

      In the end, if he chooses her I will assume its because he thinks shes the best person for the job and I'll jump in with both feet to support the ticket.

      It would make for an exciting convention.

      Give Em Hell!! OBAMA 08

      by mdmslle on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:40:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Taxes... (0+ / 0-)

    I went into a store today in Pine Lake, GA. Fox News was on the tv. The clerk just comes outta nowhere and says something to the effect of, Obama has the same thing Bill had goin- speaking ability.

    "But thing is- he can't do it without the prompter."  I wasn't even feelin that. I was like, "Even if thats true, your boy can't do it WITH the prompter." Thne I told him how I wouldn't for for OR against anyone solely on speaking ability- and I hoped he did too. crickets.

    "Taxes. Obama will raise your taxes." I asked him to name one tax. "Hell- all of em."

    I paid for my soda, and said take it easy.

  •  I Know You Paid for This One - (0+ / 0-)

    But if the Gallup poll showing McCain ahead by 4 point is an outlier, don't you think this one just might be, too?

    Two different ARG polls show Obama with only a 6-point lead among women.  I don't have the crosstabs, but I suspect that he might even trail in the women over 40 subgroup.  Not a good sign.  Not only is the women over 40 group one with the highest turnout percentage, but this group has gone Dem in the past four elections at 10+ percent.

    http://americanresearchgroup.com/

    Picking Kaine or Sebelius might alienate another 10% of Clinton supporters which could jeopardize Obama's chances.

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