Research 2000, which does polling for media organizations including Daily Kos, has just released its first national poll of the presidential race.
Research 2000 for media clients. 7/25-27. Likely voters. MoE 3% (No trend lines)
McCain (R) 39
Obama (D) 51
Barr (L) 3
Nader (I) 2
This poll was taken at the height of the "bounce" Obama received for his successful overseas trip, so it might be a bit inflated. Also, the poll is far more charitable toward Obama than the Pollster.com composite, which has the race at Obama 44.7, McCain 41.5 (though this poll hasn't been factored in yet). So like all polling, there's no need to be euphoric over a good result, just like there's no need to be suicidal over a bad one. This is just one more data point out of lots of data points in gauging the state of the race.
On the other hand, last week's WSJ/NBC poll gave Obama a 13-point lead when including Barr and Nader, so perhaps this poll isn't so crazy after all.
That said, what do this poll's crosstabs tell us (fully published below the fold)?
For one, Bush is at 22 percent approval rating. No one likes him or fears him. Well, except Congressional Democrats, of course, which is probably why they're at 13 percent approval. Meanwhile, Latinos flock to Obama 65-24. Too bad Latinos won't vote for the black guy, huh? By the time this is all over, Obama will have won them at least 70-30. Mark my words.
R2K is also projecting that if the election were held today, Obama would win 322 EVs to McCain's 216. Though R2K doesn't break it down, there's several ways to get there. Assuming Obama wins all the Kerry states (a safe assumption at this point), he could get to 322 by winning Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and North Dakota (or Montana or Alaska). Or, he can win the Kerry states plus Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The latter path would seem more likely at this point.
But perhaps most interesting about the R2K results is the geographic breakdown:
Obama McCain Barr Nader
NORTHEAST 59% 32% 1% 2%
SOUTH 43% 48% 5% 1%
MIDWEST 53% 37% 3% 2%
WEST 52% 37% 2% 3%
It's kind of easy to dismiss these numbers. The Northeast is skewed by NY. The West is skewed by California. But shouldn't McCain be doing better in the south? There aren't any hotbeds of Democratic support down there to skew numbers. And what about the Midwest, even if you account for Illinois?
Well, let's compare these numbers to the Bush/Kerry 2004 results:
Kerry Bush
Northeast (22%) 56% 43%
South (32%) 42% 58%
Midwest (26%) 48% 51%
West (20%) 50% 49%
Obama has increased his advantages in the northeast over Kerry's in 2004 by a healthy 12 points. No one has any doubt that the northeast, except perhaps for New Hampshire, will be solidly blue. The South is showing huge Democratic gains, from a minus-16 loss in 2004, to a measly minus-5 in this poll. This bodes well in Florida and even Georgia and Mississippi, which are mathematically in reach if the African American vote turns out in historic numbers.
The West is also swinging heavier toward Obama than it did Kerry, probably reflecting the solid leads Obama enjoys in Washington and Oregon, not to mention the gains Democrats have made in Colorado and smaller states like North Dakota and Montana.
But the midwest .... here's where we're seeing the most dramatic gains. Bush won the region 51-48 in 2004, and that included heavily Democratic Illinois. It was that narrow victory in the region that allowed Bush to win Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio while keeping Wisconsin and Michigan in play (and Kerry tied up). Yet today, if R2K is correct, Obama would win the region by 16 points. Some of that is an even bigger margin of victory in Illinois (Kerry won it by nine points in 2004), but a lot of that is the wider margins in places like Minnesota and Wisconsin, plus Obama's strong showings in Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana.
All in all, there's not a lot of good news in here for McCain. He's got a tough slog ahead of him.
The Research 2000 National Poll was conducted for a consortium of television stations and newspapers from July 25 through July 27, 2006. A total of 1100 likely voters nationally were interviewed by telephone. All stated they vote always or almost always when there is a statewide election. A cross-section of calls was made into each state in the country to reflect voting patterns in presidential elections.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 3% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire voting population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region.
DEMOGRAPHICS:
Men 516 (47%)
Women 584 (53%)
Democrats 407 (37%)
Republicans 276 (25%)
Independents 320 (29%)
Other/Refused 97 (9%)
White 792 (72%)
Black 154 (14%)
Latino 143 (13%)
Other/Ref 11 (1%)
18-29 209 (19%)
30-44 352 (32%)
45-59 308 (28%)
60+ 231 (21%)
Northeast 242 (22%)
South 331 (30%)
Midwest 297 (27%)
West 230 (21%)
Research 2000's electoral college projection as of July 27 is:
Obama 322
McCain 216
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, John McCain, the Republican, Bob Barr, the Libertarian, or Ralph Nader, an Independent?
OBAMA MCCAIN BARR NADER OTHER UND
ALL 51% 39% 3% 2% 1% 4%
MEN 45% 45% 4% 2% 1% 3%
WOMEN 56% 34% 2% 2% 1% 5%
DEM 82% 9% 1% 3% 1% 4%
REP 10% 83% 3% 1% 1% 2%
IND 50% 39% 5% 2% 1% 3%
OTH/REF 42% 40% 4% 3% - 11%
WHITE 41% 49% 4% 2% 1% 3%
BLACK 90% 4% - - - 6%
LATINO 65% 24% 1% 1% - 9%
OTHER/REF 83% 7% - - - 10%
18-29 63% 26% 1% 1% 1% 8%
30-44 47% 43% 5% 1% 1% 3%
45-59 54% 38% 3% 3% 1% 1%
60+ 42% 47% 1% 3% 1% 6%
NORTHEAST 59% 32% 1% 2% 1% 5%
SOUTH 43% 48% 5% 1% 1% 2%
MIDWEST 53% 37% 3% 2% 1% 4%
WEST 52% 37% 2% 3% 1% 5%
QUESTION: Which candidate for President has run a more positive campaign?
OBAMA MCCAIN NOT SURE
50% 31% 19%
QUESTION: Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress this November?
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS NOT SURE
51% 37% 12%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE
22% 78%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
13% 81% 6%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Democrats in Congress are doing?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
29% 64% 7%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
18% 73% 9%