Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 28 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Beautiful Morning! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
Today, we go mining for hidden treasures in the challenging soil of Oklahoma. Follow me below the fold.
Oklahoma is a hard state to classify. Four-region maps tend to classify Oklahoma with the South, although it wasn’t even a state during the civil war. Other maps call it Midwestern, prairie, or Southwestern.
Oklahoma also splits tickets. It hasn’t gone Democratic for President in my lifetime, IIRC. Also—people like to argue about who is the stupidest, most batshit crazy Representative in Congress. Bill Sali (Idaho) and Jean Schmidt (Ohio) seem to be the top two contenders individually, but I’d say Oklahoma has a valid claim to the most batshit crazy overall delegation. How have we sinned against you, Oklahoma, that you have sent us Tom Cole, Tom Coburn, James Inhofe AND John Sullivan, all from one state? I mean, what kind of God would allow a delegation like THAT?
On the other hand, Democrats do very well on the state level, holding the Governor’s mansion and a surprisingly large number of other statewide offices. The state legislature is close, with Democrats within seven seats of flipping the lower house, and an exact tie in the Senate. Of course, a lot of these Democrats would be considered conservative Republicans in a lot of blue states, without changing a single idea. But change is coming, slowly.
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
BLOGS: Progressive Oklahoma is well represented on the blogosphere. Offerings and communities for proud Sooners include Blue Oklahoma, the Oklahoma Democrats’ Community Forum, and the succinct Okiedoke.
http://www.blueoklahoma.org/
http://www.blueoklahoma.org/
http://okiedoke.com/...
PRESIDENT: Likely McCain. During the primaries, Obama won all of the prairie/farm belt states to the north, including neighboring Kansas by a big margin. He did well in the southwest, earning a draw in Texas and New Mexico, and winning Colorado solidly. In Oklahoma, he just hit a wall. It maybe that they do things differently here. This is one of those states where Obama should show up at least once in support of the 50-state strategy (Oklahoma City would be sufficient; I’d say head east to campaign with Boren, but, oh wait, Boren isn’t endorsing Obama!)
SENATE: THE BIG ONE for the Sooner State in ’08! Andrew Rice (D) v. James Inhofe (batshit-Incumbent). If you’re in Oklahoma and want to do something for the 2008 wave, Andrew Rice is the horse to bet on. You won’t be alone—Rice is a netroots favorite, a Kos favorite, an ActBlue Road to 60 favorite, and a Swing State Project favorite. He also has a prayer because, like Walt Minnick in Idaho and Dennis Shulman in New Jersey, his incumbent opponent is too far to the lunatic right field to fit in, even in a conservative electorate.
Rice is an experienced state Senator, a former state Representative, a christian with a Masters in Theology from Harvard Divinity School, and a post-9/11 activist whose brother was killed in the World Trade Center, making him well qualified to answer Inhofe’s constant yammering and posturing on the usual subjects of government, religion and terrorism.
On the top flipping opportunities ranking, this race is somewhere between the bottom of the second tier and the top of the third tier. As in geography, his odds of winning lie somewhere between Noriega in Texas and Slattery in Kansas. It is definitely on the map, and definitely an uphill climb that can use all the help you can give it.
http://www.andrewforoklahoma.com/
GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE:
You know, outside the Federal Government, Oklahoma isn’t doing half bad for Democrats! Here’s a list of the statewide elected officials. Go ahead and see if you notice anything in particular about them:
GOVERNOR: Brad Henry (D).
LT. GOVERNOR: Jari Askins (D)
STATE AUDITOR: Steve Burrage (D)
ATTORNEY GENERAL: Drew Edmondson (D)
STATE TREASURER: Scott Meacham (D)
SECRETARY OF EDUCATION: Sandy Garrett (D)
LABOR COMMISSIONER: Lloyd Fields (D)
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER: Kim Holland (D)
That’s right. Eight out of eight of them are Democrats, and they’re not even up for re-election until 2010.
The only Republicans elected statewide to Oklahoma office are on the State Corporation Commission, which appears to be having a special election in 2008 for two positions. The Democrats running are Jim Roth (Incumbent) and Charles Gray (challenging an Incumbent Republican). Only Roth has a campaign site up: http://www.roth2008.com/
I’m counting on any Oklahoma Kosters who happen to be around to tell us something about these, because they’re too distant and too downticket for this here Oregonian.
STATE LEGISLATURE:
Lower House: 57R, 44D, majority 13R. Need to flip 7 seats for control.
Senate: TIED at 24D, 24R, with the Democratic Lt. Governor breaking the tie for the Democrats.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—Georgianna Oliver(D) v. Jonathan Sullivan (Inc R). This Tulsa-based district includes Oral Roberts University, and Sullivan has done his pointy-headed best to make sure the fundamentalists are represented.
We had a strong progressive, Mark Manley, running in the primary, but he lost to the much stronger Georgianna Oliver, a solidly known businesswoman who is at least from OSU, not Oral Roberts.
Oliver is not for everybody. She’s going out of her way to frame herself as a conservative Democrat, eager to reach across the aisle and work with Republicans. If elected, we can expect her to sit with the Democrats, vote for Pelosi as Speaker, and then vote with the GOP on many, many issues. If that bothers you, go concentrate on the andrew Rice Senate race instead. Maybe you HAVE to do what Oliver is doing to win in OK-01; Boren does the same in the neighboring 2nd, and Manley couldn’t even scrape a majority of Democrats together.
Oliver does bring this to the table: she’s a role model for strong women in a state where preachers are still urging subservience, and she’s not an Oklahoma Republican. She’d be better than Sullivan. Heck, Zell Miller and Joe Lieberman would be better than that. Plus she’s easy on the eyes. We could do a lot worse in the Representative from Oral Roberts U, and in Sullivan, we HAVE been doing worse.
http://www.oliverforuscongress.com/...
District 2—Dan Boren (D). This is the only democrat in the seven-member delegation, and he feels obligated, in the interests of doing what his constituents want, to refrain from endorsing his own party’s candidate for President. You know, ‘cause otherwise they might realize he’s a Democrat and vote against him. With Democrats like this, does Oklahoma even NEED Republicans?
To be fair, Boren isn’t particularly known for trashing his party in public, like Traitor Joe or Zigzag Zell, but his presence in the delegation isn’t doing much to reduce the overall batshit quotient among the delegation. He’s running against the perennial Republican who lost to him in 2004 and 2006, and nothing seems to indicate he’s in any more danger now than he was when Scrappy Doo overwhelmingly won the state. Safe Dem.
District 3— Frankie Robbins (D) v. Frank Lucas (Inc. Even Battier than Sullivan) This is the most rural of the five districts, with about half of the state’s land mass, including the panhandle. Lucas represents it like a thundering fire and brimstone jackass. His cause du jour for now is trying to convince people that offshore drilling will solve all our problems and bring us back to dollar-a-gallon gas, if only ThoseDamnLiberals, who hate you and want to force you to stop driving, using conservation as an excuse, can be made to get out of the way(Oklahoma is landlocked, so he won’t get as much fallout for this as, say, the Florida delegation)
If you want to send Robbins a contribution, just for willing to get his hands dirty opposing the worst of the worst, here you go:
http://robbinsforcongress2008.com/
District 4— Blake Cummings (D) v. Tom Cole (Inc R) Southwest Oklahoma, including Enid. This district is notable for having elected the only black Republican in recent times to Congress, JC Watts (who now says he’s thinking about voting for Obama).
Cole is the incompetent head of the RCCC, repeatedly threatened with firings by the Minority Leader
Cummings is an Energy Consultant. , and it would be nice if he could throw Cole an anvil. The only thing nicer than Cole’s dismal performance in all the other districts would be if he somehow managed to lose his own seat. Or at least if he had to stay there saving his own ass instead of, um...helping...
Know what? I changed my mind. Send your money to other races, and let Tom Cole continue to do what he’s been doing. I’m told Bill Foster, Don Cazayoux and Travis Childers sent him thank-you cards after their special election victories in districts that were supposed to be one-party Republican.
http://www.blakecummingsforcongress.com/
District 5— Steven Perry (D) v. Marry Fallin (Inc R). Oklahoma City. This one disheartened me in 2006, when it went vacant and the conventional wisdom didn’t even THINK about it being potentially competitive, even after a vicious and closely fought primary fight among the Republicans. Fallin was the eventual winner, and the press and the blogs all said in unison, "Well, I guess she’s gonna be the next Representative, ‘cause there’s no way a Democrat can win the most liberal district in Oklahoma." And lo and behold, she won without anyone mussing her hair in the process. Seems to me we oughta be able to do better than that.
Steve Perry is an attorney who doesn’t seem to have a website. Please post a link if you find one for him.
REDISTRICTING: Seems to me, Oklahoma’s congressional problems aren’t about to be solved by redistricting, even if we manage to get complete control of the process. If concentrating Oklahoma City and Tulsa, the two biggest urban areas, into their own districts was not enough to make them blue, then I doubt doing anything else is going to matter. We can protect the Second district, at least, and maybe designe one of the other four around a very popular state legislator or something, but that’s a trick for insiders.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania: http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin: http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Jersey: http://www.dailykos.com/...