Today's FiveThirtyEight.com (538) and Electoral-vote.com (EVC) projections are more than enough to send any Dem's heart aflutter. The former site projects Obama w/ a (rounded) EV lead of 307-231, while the latter projects Obama 316, McCain 198, and tied 24. The former site includes FL as a McCain state, but the latter site lists it as being "Barely Dem."
For purposes of this hypothetical, let's follow EVC's lead and put this state in the Obama column. The latest Pollster.com average gives Obama a 45.7-45.3 lead, and the trendline is moving in his direction. Obama outspent McCain by over $5mm on advertising here in June/July. While 538 still gives McCain a 64% chance of winning FL, Obama's chances appear to be better than that at this point.
Either way, losing FL would be a virtual death knell for the McCain candidacy. Using either the 538 or the EVC projections, it is virtually impossible to see him getting 270 EVs w/o FL. It would almost certainly require McCain to pull off a PA/OH/MI trifecta that is bascially unattainable for him at present.
If one subtracts 27 EVs from the 538 projection, McCain is down to 204 EVs, giving him 66 EVs to pick up elsewhere. Assuming he did pull out VA, he'd still need to find 53 EVs, and 538 is already giving him MO. Taking PA, OH, and MI would give him the 58 EVs he'd need to get over the top. Subtracting PA would require him to win CO and either WI, MN, or IA to eke out a win.
The EVC map, obviously, is more daunting for McCain. While it includes IN (11 EVs) as an Obama state, it already gives OH to McCain. Even giving McCain EVC's 2 toss-ups of VA and MO and giving him IN, too, he's still 35 EVs short. Picking up NV (which 538 currently gives to McCain) would leave him 30 short, which would put him back in the position of essentially needing PA and MI again. MI plus IA, WI, or MN would leave him short.
The further complicating factor is that Obama is currently sitting pretty in PA. EVC currently projects him w/ a 6 pt lead there, and 538 projects him w/ a 7 pt lead. 538 lists 10 polls taken after 5/1, and none of them show McCain leading. They currently give Obama an 84% chance of winning PA.
The issue at this point, accordingly, is not whether Obama will win FL. The issue is how McCain can get to 270 w/o getting FL. According to 538, his chances in OH are 38%, in MI are 28%, and in PA, as previously noted, they're 16%. Multiplying those 3 odds together gives McCain a 1.7% chance of achieving that trifecta.
The last Gooper to win the WH w/o winning FL was Calvin Coolidge in 1924. Hoover, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, and Bush I all carried the Sunshine State, W was credited w/ having carried it in 2000, and he carried it in 2004. Odds are stacked against McCain prevailing w/o carrying it this year.
The Obama campaign's commitment of resources here makes it clear that they understand that basic fact.
Cross-posted on FlaPolitics.com