Is Evan Bayh my dream pick for VP? No. I do not agree with many of his positions, and his capitulation on Iraq and his complicity in the Republican assault on civil liberties is unfortunate and will not endear him much to those of us in these quarters. He has alligned himself squarely as a DLC centrist and a Clintonista, with strong personal and political ties with the Clintons going back 20 years to when he and Bill Clinton were both governors of their respective states.
However, when all is considered, he makes a great deal of sense as all around balance to Obama. Here are some key points regarding his assets and qualities:
- Broad, General Appeal: He is not the most charasmatic speaker, but he comes across as likable, even-tempered, and plain-spoken, youthful and attractive. These are all attributes that have enabled him to win gubernatorial and senate elections in Indiana with 25-30 point margins. He projects an "All American from the Heartland" image that may help Obama overcome the "foreign, exotic" descriptors that I here thrown around by the talking heads.
- Experience: He has bredth and depth of experience: 8 years of executive experience as governor and almost 10 years as a US Senator. As governor, Indiana's economy prospered and he cut taxes. As a Senator he has served on the Armed Services Committee, giving him some creditials on foreign affairs
- Party Unity: His selection would help heal some wounds amongst the Clinton sect. I'm not sure how directly the average Clinton voter/supporter would make that connection, however, from an opperational stance of a link to Clinton resources in terms of people and fundraising.
- Ability to Deliver a Swing State: Indiana hasn't voted for a Democrat since LBJ in '64. This year Indiana is being called-out as a swing state. Without Bayh, I don't think Obama will really win Indiana. I think Obama will carry the larger cities, the college towns and do generally well in the northern half of the state. However, Obama is going to have trouble in the Southern part. I would peg the race at within 5%. However, Bayh is very well liked in the state, having won by huge margins as Senator and in his reelection as Governor.
I think it is appropriate to contrast Bayh with Edwards in 2004 in that Edwards was a first term Senator from N.C. who won his election by a very narrow margin. Furthermore, Kerry's appeal and ability to win votes in N.C. on his own was extremely limited and the gap to close too great. By contrast, Bayh has been a popular figure in Indiana for 20 years, and his father, Birch Bayh, had been a U.S. Senator for nearly 20 years as well, making the Bayh family a political institution in Indiana. If Obama can get this thing within 5 points on his own, then there is every reason to believe that adding "the favorite son" to the ticket actually would generate enough news and excitement ub Indiana to put Obama over the top.
- Geographic Appeal: Similar to above, but on a more regional level. Although Obama represents a Midwestern state, I don't think some midwestern voters identify strongly with that connection to Obama. I think Bayh makes a good surrogate in places like Ohio, Iowa and Pennsylvania. A strong Midwest strategy makes a lot of sense to me. From a point of practicality and synergy, Indiana is smack-dab in the middle of the whole Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin area and there are a number of over-lapping media markets, and campaign events can be done in rapid succession jumping from one state to another very quickly.
- Political Balance: Bayh would give the ticket a certain moderate appeal. We may not care for his politics, but he helps counter the argument that Obama is a crazy liberal with crazy ideas. Obama is still the headliner and takes first billing and sets the agenda. I don't think Bayh's support for the Iraq War will be given that much importance or media attention overall. Furthermore, Bayh will have to concede a number of his positions and fall in line behind Obama.
Okay, wow, that was a long post.